Election Day 2024 is Tuesday but it may be more accurate to say it's Election Week. It may be several days, or more, before it's clear who won the White House and controls Congress.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race, with a handful of states that will determine the winner. Republicans are likely to take the Senate, but it's not a sure thing. The House of Representatives is very much up for grabs.
If Trump or Harris substantially outperforms the polls, then it's possible that a winner will be relatively clear by midnight or by the time the stock market opens Wednesday morning at 9:30 a.m. ET. But if you're expecting a winner before going to sleep, bring coffee.
When Do Election Day Polls Close In Key States?
7 p.m. ET: Georgia
7:30 p.m. ET: North Carolina
8 p.m. ET: Pennsylvania, Maine*
9 p.m. ET: Wisconsin, Nebraska*, Michigan**, Arizona***
10 p.m. ET Nevada
* Maine and Nebraska split electoral votes. In Maine, Harris is expected to carry the state, but Trump may win one electoral vote by carrying the second congressional district. In Nebraska, Trump should win easily, but Harris should carry the second congressional district, earning one electoral vote.
** Most Michigan polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but voters have until 9 p.m. ET in much of the Upper Peninsula.
*** Arizona doesn't release votes until all precincts have reported or until one hour after polls close, whichever comes first. So the first official vote counts may not come until 10 p.m. ET.
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When Will We Know 2024 Election Results?
In most contested states, roughly 70% or more of the total ballots cast will likely be counted by midnight Eastern.
But Pennsylvania and perhaps Wisconsin will likely be laggards.
Mail-in ballot rules are a key factor in how long the vote count will take.
In most contested states, election officials began processing mail-in ballots as they came in or at some point in late October. But in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, mail-in votes won't start being counted until 7 a.m. ET.
If Kamala Harris or Donald Trump outperforms the polls in key states, the winner could be clear by midnight. But if the presidential contest comes down to Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, the contest could be in doubt for some time.
Another difference is that many states require mail-in ballots to be received by Election Day, while some accept ballots that are postmarked by Election Day. But even in the latter case, the vast majority of mail-in ballots will arrive by Election Day. So unless a state's vote is extremely close, the late-arriving ballots won't have much impact.
Democrats have traditionally had an advantage in mail-in votes, but don't expect a repeat of 2020, when Covid spurred Democrats to vote by mail en masse while Donald Trump discouraged early voting. Still, when mail-in ballots are counted and released could make a difference as to whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is gaining or losing ground for hours — or days — after polls close.
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Key Senate Races In 2024
Democrats currently hold the Senate 51-49, with three independents caucusing with Democrats. Republicans appear likely to win a narrow majority.
Republicans are sure to win a seat in West Virginia, with Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin retiring. They're likely to win Montana, ousting incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
Democrats have a shot at flipping seats in Nebraska and Texas, but the GOP incumbents are favored.
Meanwhile, Democrats appear have an edge to hold Senate seats in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but these are near toss-ups. Republicans flipping at least one of those seats would not be a surprise.
If the Senate ends up in a 50-50 tie, the next vice president will hold the tiebreaker vote.
Who Will Win The U.S. House
House Republicans currently hold a narrow 220-212 majority, with three current vacancies. There are about two dozen toss-ups with roughly 20 races that lean Republican or Democrat. A handful of close races are in California, notorious for slow vote counts.
So it could be long after Election Day before it's clear who will run the House of Representatives next year.
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