Join me shortly on our live debate blog
Now I'm going to bid you farewell in this blog. We will, very shortly, launch a shiny new one for this evening to take you through tonight's "people's forum" and cover the reaction afterwards.
We've had some communications challenges today so thanks for staying with us, with such enthusiasm in the comments.
Today is an easy 'three pillar' summary:
- Kevin Rudd stayed with health, and wondered whether this evening he could change Labor's campaign story from 'drubbing' to the come back kids.
- Tony Abbott launched a manufacturing policy, and continued with confidence despite copping it from all round the place over his signature PPL program.
- The Australian Wikileaks Party appeared to be imploding.
Grab your takeway and a glass of something cold - we'll be back in a jiffy.
Tonight's debate is now not that far away. It is underway from 6.30pm.
Let's gather in this post and think about today before we start to configure the coverage towards this evening.
Kevin Rudd stayed with health today in Brisbane - and departed the hustings early for more debate preparation.
Abbott was, as we've flagged, was in the manufacturing space. He's also been questioned about his signature PPL policy. It will be interesting to see if anyone in the audience at the Broncos this evening has any questions for Abbott on this scheme.
Rudd's decision to devote two campaign afternoons to prep (yesterday and today) underscores the fact that tonight is very important for the Labor campaign. The Labor leader was obviously under-prepared in the first leaders debate. And tonight is not Kevin Rudd's chosen format - Tony Abbott wanted this format, and Sky News made sure it happened by offering to host the Liberal leader whether or not Rudd showed.
I think the Courier Mail's Dennis Atkins was quite correct this morning in a piece which observed the following:
Halfway through this election campaign Labor is losing. The self professed saviour of the party and the government is performing badly and is on a one-way track to defeat.
This midway point, the day of what could be a telling and crucial public encounter at the Broncos Leagues Club and the third anniversary of Julia Gillard's 2010 election, is as pivotal as any in the 33-day fight to the finish.
The Atkins piece describes in some detail the tensions within the Labor campaign.
The Labor story at the campaign mid point reads like this: bad polls, leaks, whacky policy (like that NT development plan). If Rudd wants to change the play he'll need to deliver tonight.
Labor has responded now on the manufacturing theme. The industry minister Kim Carr has declared the election "no longer just a referendum on whether or not we will keep making cars in Australia, it is also a referendum about whether or not we will have a manufacturing industry."
Carr says today's policy from the Coalition is contemptuous. "We already knew that the Coalition would kill the car industry in Australia with their $500m cut to government co-investment. But the Coalition confirmed today they will go further and cut more than $2 billion from programs that support the manufacturing industry in this country."
Carr says an Abbott government would cut:
- $500m from the Australian Innovation Partnerships initiative
- $500m from the Clean Technology Programs
- $350m from Venture Australia
- $500m from the Automotive Transformation Scheme
- $200m from Enterprise Connect
Hardest thing I've ever done. But I couldn't see another way @BenMcCombe
— Leslie Cannold (@LeslieCannold) August 21, 2013
Updated
The Institute of Public Affairs' Chris Berg. Take this as a comment.
another blow for the assange government
— chris berg (@chrisberg) August 21, 2013
Thanks to the ABC's Naomi Woodley for this live link to the Cannold statement. The former candidate describes an organisation at war with itself.
Cannold:
As long as I believed there was a chance that democracy, transparency and accountability could prevail in the party I was willing to stay on and fight for it. But where a party member makes a bid to subvert the party's own processes, asking others to join in a secret, alternative power centre that subverts the properly constituted one, nothing makes sense anymore. This is an unacceptable mode of operation for any organization but even more so for an organization explicitly committed to democracy, transparency and accountability.
Dear, oh dear.
Some breaking news. Leslie Cannold has resigned as a senate candidate for the Wikileaks party. She suggests that she will not be alone in parting ways with the party.
Cannold:
Today I am resigning from my role as the second Victorian Senate candidate for The Wikileaks Party. My understanding is that others will also resign today. To keep being a candidate feels like I'm breaking faith with the Australian people, and those in the media who assist me to communicate with the public, many of whom I've had a long and respectful professional relationship with. This is because by being in this role I am implicitly making a statement that The Wikileaks Party is what it claims to be: a democratically run party that both believes in transparency and accountability, and operates in this way.
She says, at length in a statement just issued, that it is not.
Updated
Tony Abbott’s paid parental leave scheme has been a dominant issue today, as the campaign hits its mid-point. Labor is hammering the issue of franking credits explored forensically in a news lead filed yesterday by Guardian Australia’s political editor Lenore Taylor.
Abbott and his treasury spokesman Joe Hockey have tried to shrug off that issue today as an “old story". (Everyone knew we weren’t going to give shareholders tax credits.) Er, no actually, not sure we did know that. Paul Kelly from The Australian has an interesting column this morning on PPL. Here’s an excerpt; Kelly is hopping into Abbott because of his lack of transparency over costings:
Female voters are the silent winners in election 2013. Their patron is that alleged sexist, Tony Abbott, who has the most pro-working women policy in our history, a document that is extravagant, fiscally dangerous and certain to inflict pain elsewhere. The paid parental leave policy is Abbott's self-declared ‘captain's call’. It is opposed by many of his senior colleagues who denounce it in private. It is, above all, a high price gesture to convince women that Abbott is their friend and will champion their deepest aspirations. The lack of transparency is contemptuous. Abbott says his policy is fully funded by the Parliamentary Budget Office yet he refuses to release such details for his biggest single policy of the election.
This is a neat tactic but unworthy arrogance. Each day new doubts are raised about Abbott's scheme. Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey says the PPL numbers are complete but was unable to tell a radio audience how much is funded from the corporate tax levy. The funding should have been provided on Sunday along with the policy. The Coalition is lucky the media has soft pedalled this omission but keeping the whole nation in the dark invites more criticism and the documentation should be released now.
Updated
Photo journalist Mike Bowers is on his way to pick up campaign Abbott in Brisbane this evening. I look forward to him bringing us crack visuals. In the meantime, Abbott on Abbott - the Liberal leader, looking at ... lawn bowlers. With the other Bishop - Bronwyn Bishop.
Dropped into Pine Rivers Club for a spot of bowls. Ultimate compliment: "you've improved since your last visit!" pic.twitter.com/xzAWhw7u6N
— Tony Abbott (@TonyAbbottMHR) August 21, 2013
Shadow immigration spokesman Scott Morrison is arguing the toss with Tony Burke on social media. The Woomera defence clearly didn't wash.
Burke still talking but not answering why identity & descriptions of Northam escapees not released, and why still no MOU with WA Police?
— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) August 21, 2013
Abbott in his press conference earlier on the manufacturing announcement gave his deputy, Julie Bishop, a big public pat on the back. While declining to speculate about who would get what portfolio if he wins government on September 7, Abbott said: “I can guarantee that Julie Bishop is going to be the deputy leader of the Liberal Party. She is going to be a magnificent minister for foreign affairs. I suspect she has the potential - and I say this at the risk of upsetting Alexander Downer - to be Australia’s best ever minister for foreign affairs.” (Downer of course was the foreign minister in the Howard government.) The Liberal leader’s decision today to create a new portfolio - trade and investment - is an interesting one. In government, the trade spot conventionally goes to a National MP. Anyone care to speculate who the new minister for trade and investment might be if Abbott wins?
Immigration minister Tony Burke, who sounds like he has a terrible cold, is holding a press conference to update people about the situation on Manus Island and Nauru. He says the first family groups have gone to Nauru today. Burke says boat arrivals since the change of deterrence regime are, increasingly, wanting to go home.
Burke is unhappy with his opponent, Scott Morrison, for holding a press conference outside a detention centre to highlight a recent escape by some asylum seekers. Burke says it’s unacceptable whenever there is an escape. But plenty of people, Burke says, remember when scores of people escaped from the Woomera detention centre during the Howard years. “The largest escapes occurred under the Howard government,” Burke says. “The level of hysteria from my opponent goes up a notch each day.”
A reader has suggested to me on Twitter that he would like to see Sky News political editor David Speers moderate tonight’s second election debate while riding a mechanical bull.
I’m rather taken with this mental picture. In this campaign, you wouldn’t entirely rule it out. Most anything could happen.
Tonight’s debate is at the Broncos in Brisvegas. This will make tonight’s event an evening in which News Corp has a significant interest. News has a stake in the host broadcaster, Sky News. I gather News in Queensland is the Broncos biggest shareholder. Did I also see Queensland News executive Dennis Watt, the Broncos chairman, at one of Abbott’s campaign events this morning?
Let’s orient ourselves in the campaign afternoon by going backwards briefly to record the details of Tony Abbott’s new manufacturing policy, just announced.
The main promises:
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Appoint a minister for trade and investment whose central responsibility will be to attract trade and increase inwards investment into Australia.
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Build Australia's manufacturing export base by progressively restoring funding to Export Market Development Grants starting with an initial $50m boost.
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Establish a $50m Manufacturing Transition Fund to provide assistance to communities and industries as they transition to new areas of manufacturing growth.
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Implement industry specific Strategic Growth Action Agendas that bring industry and government together to develop strategic, coordinated and long term plans for growth and viability.
It’s not much money, and Abbott was making it clear that there was nothing specific here for the car industry. He remarked that responsible governments should not be running down the road waving chequebooks in the direction of car manufacturers.
Labor had wanted to assert some natural political advantage this campaign in the manufacturing policy frame. It had wanted to make much politically of its commitment to manufacturing and the car makers in particular - but Labor’s recent savings measure to tighten fringe benefits tax requirements for company cars has removed some of that political advantage.
Every time Labor talks about the car industry Coalition people just talk about the FBT impost. The FBT impost has neutralised the manufacturing issue politically for the Coalition. It’s a measure of Abbott’s confidence at the campaign mid-point - he obviously feels no need to play "me too" with special funds for the car makers.
Thanks very much to Paul. It’s Katharine Murphy taking over now for the remainder of today.
The campaign mid-point has thrown some internet connectivity challenges my way, but here on Politics Live we soldier on. And on. And ... This afternoon will be all build-up for tonight’s “people’s forum” at the Broncos Club in Brisbane.
Sky News is in full build-up mode now, carrying a live cross to reporter Tom Connell, who is travelling on the (moving) Tony Abbott campaign bus. It’s slightly motion sickness-inducing television. But let no one doubt the commitment.
With that the press conference is over. Abbott kept his cool, but he was light on detail on many questions.
If you've got a higher income, you lose some benefits and you pay more tax, but you will always be better off overall, Abbott says about the parental leave scheme.
How much of the cost of the parental leave scheme will come from the company tax cut?
Company taxes go up and down depending on the economy, Abbott says.
The parliamentary budget office have looked at these numbers, he says.
It's funded from the levy on big business, discontinuing Labor's schemes, and other things.
Joe Hockey, the shadow treasurer, says "do not buy the dripping hypocrisy of Labor" over this.
He says there was "none of this hysteria about franking credits" when Labor was in favour of a company tax cut.
He is asked about the Guardian's story on paid parental leave. He says he welcomes questions and "welcomes the Labor party obsessing" about it.
There are "inevitable less franking credits", he says.
But the scheme is good for the economy, he says.
Asked about whether Julie Bishop and others will switch jobs if the Coalition wins, Abbott says his team will stay more or less he same as "I've got a great team".
Unlike Mr Rudd, I'm not a one-man band ... I've never had mass resignations.
He says there is only one side contesting this election that has a plan for the future - the Coalition. Building a strong economy, abolishing carbon tax, getting budget back under control, building roads, stopping boats ...
Rudd had a plan to tear down a prime minister, but he has no plan to govern, Abbott says.
That's why his campaign is "increasingly negative – even hysterical".
Abbott says most of his frontbench wear Australian RM Williams boots - he's wearing them right now. "Maybe a fashion statement ... " he muses, but it's also an important statement of patriotism.
Abbott is asked again about Holden, which has said it needs an answer soon.
We want Holden to survive. We really do.
Holden has flourished under Coalition governments, he says.
Obviously it would be a pity if Holden shut up shop in Australia, he says.
He repeats his line about charging down the street waving a blank cheque. "You just don't do that."
Carmakers can come to him after the election, he says.
Abbott takes questions. What if Holden cars comes to him as PM and says it will quit Australia without a government handout.
Let's cross those bridges if and when we get there.
He says he won't run down the road waving a blank cheque at them.
Tony Abbott is speaking now in Brisbane. He says he wants Australia to be a country that makes things – "sophisticated things" – without a government subsidy.
He praises shadow minister Sophie Mirabella for realising that the best thing to do for manufacturing is to "get the economic fundamentals right".
He says the government needs to "abolish the carbon tax, abolish the mining tax ... cut red tape".
He says he appreciates business – unlike, it is implied, Labor.
Rudd seemed a little short with people at that press conference, a bit impatient. And he is proceeding with attack lines on the GST and the Coalition's supposed $70bn planned cuts that many consider somewhat dubious.
He is on stronger ground with his criticisms of Abbott's paid parental leave scheme, which the Guardian has analysed here and here. But unfortunately for him some of those criticisms are somewhat technical and may not have the cut-through with voters he hopes for.
The Liberals have made a new campaign website allowing voters to click on Rudd's "excuses" and hear him intone them.
The press conference is over ...
Thanks, folks, gotta zip.
Does anyone claim the NT is not isolated. "Gee ... it takes a while to get up there," Rudd says.
He points out that Abbott's hero is Margaret Thatcher.
And he causes a bit of a stir by referring to Western Australian mining magnate Andrew Forrest ... well, I'll let Twitter tell it:
KRudd just referred to Andrew Forrest as "the old Twigster". #ausvotes
— Naomi Woodley (@naomiwoodley) August 21, 2013
I am pretty sure Kevin Rudd just called Andrew Forrest "the old Twigster". Surely this represents some sort of shark-jump?
— Jacqueline Maley (@JacquelineMaley) August 21, 2013
the old twigster!
— Lenore Taylor (@lenoretaylor) August 21, 2013
"The old Twiggster" #Auspol
— Judith Ireland (@CanberraCamper) August 21, 2013
PM Rudd: "Twigster" #ausvotes
— Karen Barlow (@KJBar) August 21, 2013
Old twiggy twig twiggity twiggster, eh?
— Alex McClintock (@axmcc) August 21, 2013
"The Old Twiggster" would feel honoured by the old Ruddster.
— Malcolm Farr (@farrm51) August 21, 2013
Rudd is asked about his Northern Territory low-tax zone plan. Was it just dreamt up on the plane ride?
It's the right policy for the Territory, he says. The response there has been good, he says.
I'm about making things happen, not about engaging in a rolling economic seminar ...
Asked why he spends so much time attacking Abbott, he says of his criticisms of the Coaltion leader:
This isn't a figment of someone's imagination, mate.
Rudd is asked about confusion about whether any genuine refugees will in the end by settled in Australia.
The resettlement arrangement is very clear ... They will not be settled or resettled into Australia.
He asks for questions. Asked about preparing for the debate, he says his preparation is talking to real people.
On the tragic drownings near Christmas Island yesterday, he says his asylum policy will "take a while to work through".
Rudd sums up, saying paid parental leave will cost $22bn, will hit companies with $9bn hit, which will be passed on to you "at the checkout", and will also hit superannuation.
He says Malcolm Fraser, the former Liberal prime minister, has tweeted that this is bad policy.
"If you're going to lodge and launch this sort of hit on people's superannuation earnings ... it's going to hit superannuation, big time," he says.
Rudd says Abbott's plan for paid parental leave is "unaffordable, unfair and ... irresponsible".
He says it means a "massive, massive $22bn plan" over four years. "That's going to cost everyone $22bn over a four-year period."
How is this to be funded, Rudd asks. He says Abbott's answer of a business levy is "untrue". "Already we see a crabwalk away from the levy fully funding" the scheme, he says.
He notes Guardian Australia's story about the fact the Coalition will save $3.2bn over the first four years of its paid parental leave scheme by refusing to pay tax credits to shareholders of the 3,200 big businesses hit with the 1.5% levy that helps pay for it.
Kevin Rudd is speaking now in Brisbane.
He says he is in the building business whereas Abbott is in the cutting business. "Cut, cut and cut again."
He again suggests Abbott might raise the GST, something he has ruled out.
How can pollsters in the field at the same time, asking similar questions, get answers that vary by this much, asks Simon Jackman. Read his excellent piece on his Swing blog to find out. Here's an extract:
A certain amount of variation across pollsters is to be expected, due to the uncertainty of random sampling. Suppose pollster A and pollster B field surveys using identical methods. Let's even assume that the method is unbiased, such that both pollsters get the "right answer", averaging over many polls.
Any given poll will deviate from the correct, long-run average, due to randomness inherent in sampling and the size of the sample. For instance, if the ALP's TPP was 50%, then any given poll with a sample size of, say, 1,500, would have a 95% credible interval or "margin of error" (MOE) of +/- 2.5 points.
Simon also has some bad news for Labor.
My poll average has Labor's TPP at 46.8%, +/- 1.4. This estimate is lower than just about all the stated poll results (save for Newspoll's 46%), after correcting for over-estimates of Labor's TPP by the pollsters in the 2010 election (detailed in a previous post) ...
If we wipe the slate clean, forgetting the pollsters' 2010 over-estimates of ALP TPP, we get a slightly more favorable picture for Labor, 48.3% TPP, +/- 1.1.
Even under this latter set of assumptions — giving the polling industry the benefit of the doubt — the Coalition remains in an election-winning position.
Just had a look on Twitter to see if anyone had posted a picture of the Peter Slipper poster. I wish I hadn't now. It's a weird world in there.
Can't find my other slipper so I been walking around with one slipper & a Jordan slide .. But I have my other slide
— ☯TX (@LaNancy_) August 21, 2013
Found a girl who fits the glass slipper, my cinderella, not the motion picture.
— Ashmen Weiss (@ashmenweiss) August 21, 2013
Glass slipper, my wallows is made from lion skin... King of the jungle, ain't shit about me humble..
— ∆ DBRY AUDI☼▲ (@DBRYAudio) August 21, 2013
By the way, that Peter Slipper poster picture's probably worth a peek. He looks quite Nixonian ... and not in a good way.
In this week's Politics Weekly podcast, Katharine Murphy, Lenore Taylor and Greg Jericho take stock at the midpoint of the election campaign and look forward to tonight's debate.
Updated
Abbott also defended his paid parental leave scheme, although only in general terms:
Every social advance since the beginning of time has attracted critics who have said the world as we know it will end. The world will end if you pay people pensions, if you introduce support for people with disabilities and so on.
Tony Abbott and Queensland premier Campbell Newman have promised land and money to keep the Brisbane Broncos in Red Hill – where tonight's debate will take place. Abbott said a coalition government would give the club $5m to kickstart the revitalisation of its Red Hill precinct.
The Coalition leader said this money would go towards new sport medicine facilities, including a gymnasium.
This is a key part of the development - it's very important if the Broncos are to remain on this site.
The real financial gain for women under the Coalition's $5.5 billion paid parental leave plan could be half that claimed by leader Tony Abbott, writes Lenore Taylor, citing new modelling of the controversial scheme:
Abbott said his scheme is proof that he "gets" modern women and that it "will result in a woman earning the average full time salary of around $65,000 receiving $32,500 – and they will be around $21,300 better off under the Coalition's scheme relative to Labor's scheme."
But the modelling, by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), shows a woman with one child and a new baby earning $65,000 would in fact be better off compared with Labor's scheme by somewhere between $10,604 and $14,895 (depending on her partner's income) once reduced family tax benefit payments and income tax was taken into account.
A bit of a spat is going on on Sky News right now between Labor's Ed Husic and the Liberals' Josh Frydenberg over paid parental leave. Frydenberg called Labor's less generous system a "Mickey Mouse scheme", prompting Husic to reply intemperately:
Bugger off, Josh, Mickey Mouse scheme ...
If you only watch one video about the 2013 election campaign so far, make it this insightful piece about veteran photographer Mike Bowers's life on the campaign trail so far. Bowers says this has been the craziest election he's ever been involved in – and this is his eighth.
Labor's Graham Perrett was just on Sky News talking up the champ's chances before the big race tonight. He said Usain Bolt usually started off slow out of the blocks, too, but then he always sped up and won in the end.
Hmm ...
Tony Burke, the immigration minister, has claimed people-smugglers are staging "a bit of a surge" to try to "overwhelm" Labor's so-called "PNG solution" on asylum seekers. He told ABC last night:
In the last few days, some of the smuggling operations have tried to put together a bit of a surge and to see if they can overwhelm the current system.
More than 500 asylum seekers aboard four boats have arrived since Sunday, AAP reports.
Labor's "PNG solution" involves asylum seekers being processed on Papua New Guinea and genuine refugees being resettled there or in other countries, rather than in Australia.
Rudd is launching a $15m scheme to improve care for people with cancer in regional Australia in Brisbane today. He is expected to announce a network of 34 Cancer Care Nurse Coordinators so people diagnosed with cancer get access to the specialist health services they need. The PM said:
Cancer Care Nurse Coordinators will provide vital information about the illness and its treatment, and help patients navigate the health system, connecting them with health services and with community support and resources.
AAP is reporting that former Speaker Peter Slipper – who is running as an independent in Fisher, Queensland – is using his old Liberal election signs in his 2013 campaign, but with the logo of his old party chopped off at the top and bottom.
Slipper said he was simply doing his bit for the environment.
We have a fragile environment. Obviously if you're able to use something that you've already got, it means that you don't have to re-buy something again, but it wasn't principally a budget measure.
Good morning and welcome to Guardian Australia’s election 2013 live blog, as the two candidates head to Brisbane for the second leaders’ debate of the campaign.
The last debate was a bit of a damp squib, with both Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott sticking to fairly pedestrian rehearsals of their policies, although Abbott probably did enough to reassure voters he could make a convincing PM - and his numbers on “preferred prime minister” have tracked up in the polls ever since.
Rudd announced a bill on same-sex marriage would be brought forward within 100 days of his winning re-election, but the aftermath of the debate was overshadowed by an unedifying row over whether or not the PM had broken the debate rules by using notes.
It seems quite a long time ago now, and Rudd goes into this debate very much the underdog that he wanted the voters to believe he was at the start of the campaign. The format of this debate will be different: instead of media grandees asking questions, that job falls to 100 members of the public. Hopefully, that will throw up a few surprises – and Abbott has to be more likely to make a mistake or gaffe.
But as the polls seem to be gradually swinging towards the Coalition, I wonder if the public has now made its mind up to give Abbott the top job, and so has already “priced in” the gaffes and fumbles that the media find so fascinating. (Present company included.)
The issue of asylum seekers is sure to be raised, with five people thought to have died when a boat sank off Christmas Island yesterday. Paid parental leave, climate change, and of course the economy may also feature heavily. Queensland is seen as key to Labor's chances of retaining office with 30 lower house seats, half of which are held with margins of 5% or lower, so expect as many local references as each leader can possibly fit in.
The debate will begin tonight at the Brisbane Bronco Leagues Club at 6.30pm, and will be shown on Sky News and ABC News 24. Katharine Murphy and I will cover all today’s political events here today, and Katharine will cover the debate itself. Enjoy ...
Updated
