The chorus to Nigel Farage’s triumphant election campaign was Eminem’s line “Guess who’s back?”, but many Tories will feel as if he never went away. Like a pesky hound, he has gnawed at their ankles throughout their time in government. They tried various strategies: ignoring him, insulting him and throwing him bones – a referendum, a resignation, a new leader, a policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda. But rather than stop or sate him, these methods only made him stronger and louder, his appetite more ravenous. Now, as their parting treat, the Tories have helped Farage achieve what every dog dreams of: a seat at the table. Farage is going to Westminster. Eighth time lucky.
Farage secured Clacton-on-Sea with 46% of the vote, one of four seats won on the night. It’s a historic achievement, and not only in the context of his previous seven failed attempts (the first dating back to 1994 in which he received roughly the same as Screaming Lord Sutch of the Monster Raving Loony party – less than 2% of the vote). That this comes on the back of the Tories’ worst ever election performance is no coincidence. A mutation on the right – foreshadowed by the rise of politicians like Suella Braverman and Miriam Cates – is under way.
For weeks, Farage has dominated social media, often surpassing the digital reach of his opponents combined, drawing large crowds to well-choreographed rallies. After his recent, lucrative spells on television – first on I’m a Celebrity, then as an anchor for GB News – both his media savviness and the media’s eagerness to indulge him were already well known. But these familiar qualities felt more remarkable this campaign, if only because there was no other politician who could match him. This will be Farage’s pitch to the Tories: in the absence of Boris Johnson who else can offer the self-belief, comic relief and enthusiastic support base your party craves?
Like Johnson, Farage is a performer whose vanity and duplicity only bolsters his aura of authenticity. Their parties are no more than vehicles for their personalities. But the emotions that Farage taps into are more menacing than those found in Johnson’s slapstick routines, and so is the company he keeps. Farage feeds off betrayal and resentment – he scours the horizon for fresh sources of grievance as if they were small boats crossing the Channel – while his singular focus on immigration and corrupt elites corrodes the national conversation. Despite his pint-guzzling patriotism, there is a distinctly US flavour to this brand of politics. Farage has natural allies in Steve Bannon and Donald Trump – who affectionately referred to him as “Mr Brexit”, with the former president already being flaunted by Farage’s team as a prospective visitor to the Essex seaside – and will now bring that spirit into the palaces of Westminster, his most prominent pulpit yet.
Farage’s presence will divide the Tories who survived the election. But in practice the party has been drifting in his direction for some time, eventually remaking itself in his image. Its feuds have felt increasingly like the narcissism of small differences. Last year, polling suggested that some seven in 10 Tory members would welcome Farage into the party; and last month he was the most popular choice to replace Sunak as leader. No matter what, Farage is going to cast a long shadow over the Conservatives’ coming leadership election.
Farage will also cast a shadow over Labour, coming second to the party in many seats, and with Farage’s vow to turn the party’s guns on to Labour next. Farage also namechecks the failing NHS, underfunded schools and the housing crisis as key policy concerns, but declares they are all explained by one treacherous policy: a lax immigration system. Labour will need both impressive powers of resistance and significant policy success to defang these lies. Neither will be easy to achieve, even with such a large majority. For now, there are reasons for hope and despair. It is to Starmer’s credit that Labour did not include immigration on its list of 10 pledges and that he has committed to binning the Rwanda scheme. But the inclusion of stopping asylum seekers staying in hotels (a favourite far-right talking point) and flashes of Farageism in other moments – such as when he told the Sun that he’ll “make sure we’ve got planes going off” for deportations and then caused a minor diplomatic incident by singling out Bangladeshis – are more worrying.
Labour should also be worried by the recent elections in France. Starmer and Emmanuel Macron share certain similarities: a fondness for the private sector, a resistance towards wealth redistribution, and a devout centrism that involves isolating the left and accommodating the right. Over several years, Macron made an exaggerated effort to take the concerns of the National Rally seriously, whether on immigration or “Islamism”, with the hope of making Marine Le Pen’s party obsolete. Now they are on the brink of seizing control of the legislature at Macron’s expense, putting even Farage’s achievements in the shade.
The lesson from both France and the past 14 years of Tory rule is clear: pandering to xenophobia does nothing to halt the far right, it simply pushes the political conversation in its favour. Starmer must heed this lesson. The alternative is that he governs like his Tory predecessors and then ends up like them: in the teeth of Nigel Farage.
• Samuel Earle is the author of Tory Nation: The Dark Legacy of the World’s Most Successful Political Party
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