If we are going to save democracy in this country — and make no mistake, that fight is being waged right this very minute — voters must have faith in the election system. And there’s a small piece of good news on that front.
A poll released Thursday by the Center for Election Innovation & Research (CEIR) showed that more GOP voters have trust in U.S. elections than a year ago. Has there been a sudden dawning of sanity, a realization that voter fraud is exceedingly rare in the United States?
Hang on. The poll also shows that many GOP voters continue to cling to unfounded conspiracy theories about widespread voter fraud, and — surprising no one — those who backed Donald Trump hold those mistaken beliefs the most.
That’s creating a schism in the Republican Party. Other GOP voters, it seems — the non-Trump ones — are now more in line with independents and Democrats when asked to consider how the 2022 midterm election was run and administered in their community and state. And even when asked about national elections, Republican confidence in elections was nearly double that of the 2020 election — going from 32% in 2021 to 57% in this most recent poll.
Fifty-seven percent isn’t great, but it’s a heckuva lot better than 32%.
So that’s the good news. The bad news is that Trump continues to fuel a divide in the United States that doesn’t seem to be going away. And the clock is ticking on the 2024 presidential election.
The poll noted that Florida Republicans were especially confident in the 2022 election — more than Republicans nationwide, and that there was a substantial bias created by outcomes. In other words, if your candidate won — as Gov. Ron DeSantis did in Florida — you were more likely to have high confidence in the system.
David Becker, the executive director and founder of CEIR, called the overall findings of the poll “significant progress” in voter trust. But he also warned that the progress is fragile.
“It is crucial to the health of American democracy that citizens believe that our nation’s voting systems are sound, and that their vote will be counted,” he said. “We know that when voters are fed a steady diet of lies about our elections, this trust wanes, and as we saw on Jan. 6, 2021, the consequences can be dire.”
Becker has credentials on both sides of the aisle. He served as a senior attorney with the Justice Department’s voting section in both the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. And CEIR is a nonpartisan nonprofit that works with elections officials around the country regardless of party affiliation.
Interestingly, the poll indicated that GOP voters were especially likely to believe in the prevalence of fraud and miscounted votes in states other than their own. That tracks with the results on Florida.
But what to do now? Ignoring the festering problem of grudge-bearing Trump voters isn’t going to work. But voter education may be the answer — or at least, an answer. A number of those polled indicated their trust in the election system would improve with measures like voter ID verification, even when they lived in states that already had such measures. Elections officials, whose jobs rest on the notion of fair elections, and other pro-democracy groups need to give that some serious thought.
Becker called the next two years “pivotal” when it comes to continuing to build trust with voters. Those on the front lines of democratic elections need to lead the way.
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