President Trump's "vision for peace" in the Middle East will not resolve the decadeslong conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Rather, its goal is to resolve conflicts facing Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The administration announced its plan as Trump's impeachment trial proceeded in the Senate and Netanyahu was indicted on three corruption charges. The plan is everything Netanyahu could have hoped for, which Trump hopes will be everything he needs in November.
Breaking with U.S. policy since 1982, Trump's proposal recognizes Israeli sovereignty over settlements in the occupied West Bank and envisions a Palestinian state on just 70% of the land. It allows a Palestinian capital only on the outskirts of East Jerusalem, leaving Israel to control an undivided city. It sets many other conditions for statehood that no Palestinian leader could accept, such as dismantling the terrorist group Hamas.
In essence, the Trump plan codifies Israel's aggressive settlement expansion since the 1967 Six Day War. Though he may delay the vote, Netanyahu said he would ask the Knesset to annex 30% of the West Bank.
Under Trump's plan, the two-state solution is dead. Palestine would be an unworkable archipelago surrounded and controlled by Israel to a degree unimagined even in previous proposals that called for a demilitarized state. One Israeli columnist said it would be "more divided than the Virgin Islands."
In public, administration officials claim that a Palestinian state remains possible. The fact that the plan doesn't rule one out caused some of the extreme right-wing settler groups in Israel to reject it.
But a quote in Israel Hayom, which serves as Netanyahu's media mouthpiece, gives the game away. "If you look at the dictionary," a senior U.S. official told the newspaper, "you'll understand (that the Palestinian entity laid out in the Trump plan) isn't the definition of a state. That is not what the plan allows, and so the resistance from the Right ... is a mistake."
Last March, as the Israeli election approached, Trump shifted U.S. policy to recognize the country's control of the Golan Heights on the northern border with Syria. Trump hoped that the move would boost political soulmate Netanyahu and his Likud Party.
Instead, the prime minister was unable to form a government. He failed again after new elections in September. So did Benny Gantz, leader of the competing Blue and White Party.
The next election is set for March 2. With that in mind, Trump has done Netanyahu an even bigger favor. He can campaign as the man who secured Israel's impossible right-wing dream, not the man accused of trading on his office for personal gain.
Similarly, Trump scores more points with Christian Zionists � evangelicals at the core of his support. That's the audience Gov. Ron DeSantis targeted last year when he held a Florida Cabinet meeting in Israel.
Any serious plan would have involved the Palestinians. But the administration excluded them from negotiations. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said the proposal amounted to a Palestinian "surrender." Even Israeli President Reuven Rivlin said only that it could compel the two sides to "renew the channels of dialogue."
In addition, the Arab countries most important to any deal � Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan � did not send their ambassadors to the ceremony.
The Palestinian Authority said the plan voids the 1993 Oslo Accords that had formed the basis for Israeli-Palestinian relations. Under Oslo, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have cooperated successfully on security in the West Bank. Some Palestinians claim that Trump's deal ends their commitment under Oslo, and Israeli military and intelligence officials fear that the authority could end its cooperation. Some disillusioned Palestinians also now favor dismantling the authority, which would leave Israel responsible � financially and otherwise � for the 2.5 million Palestinians in the West Bank.
This short-term political plan carries other risks. It could hinder Israel's efforts to form a coalition against Iran. It could drive more American Jews away from Israel. Most important, it could force the existential crisis for Israel that some have predicted and worried about.
Philip Gordon is a senior fellow in U.S. foreign policy for the Council on Foreign Relations. He wrote, "The launch of this plan risks provoking anger and possibly even violence among Palestinians and in Jordan, but the real risk is that _ by paving the way for further Israeli annexation _ it further undermines Israel's long-term prospects as a Jewish, democratic state."
Under previous two-state solutions, with the Palestinians getting roughly 90% of the West Bank, Israel would continue to be a Jewish state. Controlling the West Bank and assigning Palestinians less than full citizenship would mean that Israel is no longer the only democracy in the Middle East.
Ephraim Sneh is a former Israeli deputy defense minister. He wrote, "President Trump's plan does offer one good outcome: This is the first time since 1996 that the Israeli national elections will be about the real issue � what kind of state do we want? The moment of truth has arrived." How will Israelis answer?
