A document leaked to Politico, a draft U.S. Supreme Court ruling, appears to show that the court plans to overturn the 1973 landmark cases of Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey.
Those two cases established that the U.S. Constitution protects the right to seek an abortion. Overturning them would restore a system in which states determine whether abortion is legal or illegal. It will mean a legal patchwork where abortion is permissive in many states, but illegal in others.
We already know the Idaho Legislature’s position on the matter.
In 2020, the Legislature passed and Gov. Brad Little signed a “trigger” bill making abortion a crime with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother if the U.S. Supreme Court ever overturns Roe. Criminal punishment will be a felony of two to five years in prison and apply to the person performing the abortion, not the woman. Doctors and those who assist could have their licenses suspended or revoked. And if the doctor believes the woman may commit self-harm if forced to carry the pregnancy to term, that is specifically excluded as a defense.
This horrible law may send medical professionals to prison. But it will not stop abortions.
Simply declaring abortion illegal isn’t going to stop unwanted pregnancies. Couples will still have unwanted pregnancies for which they will seek an abortion. That means abortions still will be happening; they’ll just be happening out of state, in Oregon, Washington and Nevada, or under dangerous conditions at home, or in underground clinics.
We know this because this is how things were before Roe.
Washington Gov. Jay Inslee in March said his state will protect Idaho residents’ access to abortion procedures as he signed a bill solidifying some health care workers’ ability to perform abortions and forbidding Texas-style punishment for providers.
Planned Parenthood clinics in Washington and Oregon reported in April that they are preparing for a potential surge in patients from Idaho seeking reproductive care and abortions.
In 2017 — the most recent year data was available — 1,290 abortions were performed in Idaho, the Guttmacher Institute reported, according to previous reporting in the Idaho Statesman. That’s 0.1% of all abortions performed in the U.S. that year. The Guttmacher Institute is a research organization that supports abortions.
Sexual abuse and incest that result in pregnancy will not stop, and neither will the continued erosion of a woman’s right to govern her own life. In the bigger picture, this changes the playing field for women at every level of income, education and employment.
Because of Idaho’s law, only women who can afford to travel to Oregon and Washington will have access to a safe, legal abortion. Women who have to remain in Idaho are likely to turn to more dangerous means, as has happened throughout history.
As it is, health care is expensive and not universal in the United States, leaving many young and low-income women without health insurance. The de facto effect of an abortion ban could be forcing these women to carry an unwanted pregnancy to birth.
The Legislature has not prepared for this by establishing systems to allow low-income women to afford raising a child. It has established a law that allows a woman to surrender their child to the state within 30 days of birth.
And the Legislature has not taken steps, like ensuring better access to birth control, to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies. This would have been a far better and more humane means of reducing the number of abortions than seeking to use prison sentences to deter them.
We recognize that many believe abortion is tantamount to murder, and that those morally opposed to abortion view this as a tremendous victory.
But it is not a victory.
It is likely to mean a whole lot more suffering, mostly by women in the most vulnerable circumstances. It may reduce the number of abortions a little, but probably not by much. And the abortions that continue will be dangerous, and sometimes deadly for the mom, in many places.
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