The economy, inflation and cost of living were among Trump's advantages during the 2024 presidential election cycle, with voters trusting him more than his opponent to make living in America more affordable. But with just weeks until he is officially inaugurated as the 47th president of the U.S., economists and experts warn that his proposed policies might have the exact opposite effect his followers want.
Trump won on Election Day among voters who said they were "very concerned" about the economy. In fact, around 6 in 10 voters in that group supported him, compared to 4 in 10 who said the same about Vice President Kamala Harris, according to The Associated Press.
Trump has not been shy of campaigning on the economy and the cost of living. Throughout the campaign trail, he has proposed tariffs that would help U.S. farmers. He has called for a 60% tariff on products made in China and a "universal" tariff of 10% to 20% on all other foreign goods that enter the United States.
He has also said American farmers were getting "decimated" because the U.S. allows so many agricultural products into the country. As of 2021, the U.S. imported 60% of its fresh fruit, 38% of its fresh vegetables— excluding potatoes and mushrooms— and 10% of its beef, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
But despite his enthusiasm, economists say his proposals would actually harm the economy, not help it.
Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter in June expressing fear that Trump's proposals would "reignite" inflation, which has plummeted since peaking at 9.1% in 2022 and is nearly back to the Fed's 2% target.
"For a country like the U.S., which is embedded in deep relationships with other countries, conforming to international norms and having normal and stable relationships with other countries is also an imperative," the researchers said. "Donald Trump and the vagaries of his actions and policies threaten his stability and the U.S.'s standing in the world."
Now that Trump has won his bid, experts are continuing to sound alarm bells and advising the public to brace for increased prices, particularly on food.
For instance, David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said that food producers rely on imported goods like fertilizer, equipment and packaging materials. If they're forced to pay more for those items, they will raise prices, he said.
At the same time, as tariffs raise the cost of imports, the weakened competition from foreign products makes it easier for U.S. producers to raise their own prices, according to the Associated Press.
"There's no question that tariffs are inflationary," said Kent Smetters of the University of Pennsylvania' Penn Wharton Budget Model, which studies the costs of government policies. "Exactly how much— that's where economists can debate it."
Ortega also highlighted Trump's mass deportation plans, arguing that could also trigger the increase of groceries. There are more than 2 million undocumented workers throughout the U.S. food chain, the Associated Press reported, including an estimated 1 million working on farms, 750,000 working in restaurants and 200,000 in food production.
A surge in immigrants, like the one the U.S. has experienced in recent years, tends to make it easier for businesses to hire workers, according to AP News. The result is that it can help cool inflation by easing the pressure on employers to sharply raise pay and to pass on their higher labor costs to their customers by increasing prices.
If his mass deportation plans are carried out to their full extent, the Peterson Institute calculates that the U.S. inflation rate would be 3.5 percentage points higher in 2026.
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