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Belfast Live

National

Brendan Hughes

East Belfast NI election 2022 candidates in key constituency as DUP dominance gradually slows

DUP Alliance East Belfast Assembly UUP Andy Allen PUP Brian Smyth David Brooks Karl Bennett

East Belfast was once an assured DUP stronghold but the party's dominance in the constituency has been gradually chipped away amid a growing Alliance vote.

Taking in areas including Ballymacarrett and Dundonald, the constituency for years was the fiefdom of former DUP leader and ex-First Minister Peter Robinson.

But in perhaps a sign of changing times, this year the local DUP association had no say in choosing their election candidates - because of not having enough paid-up members.

Instead they were picked by central party officers, as under DUP rules a local association needs around 40 members to hold a vote to select some candidates.

The Alliance Party has two MLAs in East Belfast including its leader Naomi Long. She topped the poll in 2017 and looks set to do the same again this time.

Her colleague Chris Lyttle is stepping down from the Assembly and so is replaced on the party ticket by Peter McReynolds, a local councillor and former deputy lord mayor of the city.

Alliance will have difficulty balancing first-preference votes between the two candidates due to Mrs Long's high profile, but her surplus should help bring Mr McReynolds over the line.

Go deeper: Take a look at the key constituencies at the 2022 Assembly election

The DUP also has two seats in the constituency. Some have questioned whether the party's leadership turmoil and loyalist disillusionment over Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol could depress the DUP vote on polling day.

But the party appears to be taking no chances, running just two candidates instead the three it fielded in the 2017 Assembly election.

MLA Joanne Bunting is once again on the ballot, but former Stormont speaker Robin Newton was deselected in favour of local councillor and party staffer David Brooks.

By contrast the UUP has added a second candidate to its campaign, with MLA and Army veteran Andy Allen joined this time by party press officer Lauren Kerr.

Ms Kerr, an LGBT campaigner keen to also encourage more women to enter politics, is a progressive voice within the UUP who could help her party pick up transfers from Alliance and others.

But this is a risky move by the party, considering that Mr Allen in 2017 had a first-preference tally almost 1,500 votes below the quota required for election.

Perhaps it is a sign of confidence from the Ulster Unionists that they feel their seat is secure and the second DUP seat is not entirely nailed on.

The decision to include Ms Kerr's name on the ballot is also likely an attempt to help build her profile for a council seat in local elections next year.

In 2017 the Progressive Unionist Party picked up more than 2,600 first preferences, a fairly significant 6.6% share of the vote, with its then-candidate John Kyle.

However, with the GP and councillor having since defected to the Ulster Unionists, the PUP is running the much lower profile Karl Bennett.

Last time PUP transfers split almost evenly between the DUP and UUP, but unionist divisions over the Protocol could make transfers much more uncertain.

Where those PUP votes go this time could be an important factor in who secures the fifth and final seat in the constituency.

An outside bet to benefit could be Green Party, which is talking up its chances of councillor Brian Smyth being in contention for the last seat.

The party is putting canvassing power behind him in what is one of their main target constituencies.

If Alliance does particularly well and issues such as the cost-of-living crisis dominate the campaign, the Greens could stand to pick up transfers across the board from voters fed up with Stormont stalemate.