It’s never too early to lose sleep over NBA awards. We’re about a third of the way through the season, a perfect time for our preliminary fake awards ballot. I don’t have a vote, but this is how I would choose each award winner if I had one.
Most Valuable Player: Nikola Jokic
Nikola Jokic is having another historic season. He ranks second in the league in points per game (32.2) on elite efficiency (64.7 percent true shooting). Jokic is the only player this season averaging above 30 points, 60 percent true shooting and eight assists per game. He would join James Harden (2018) and Luka Doncic (2023, 2024) to reach those benchmarks if he sustained them throughout the season.
He leads the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (plus-8.4) and Offensive EPM (plus-7.8), with substantial gaps between him and second-place Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. As it currently stands, those numbers would mark his second-best EPM total (plus-9.2 in 2022) and the best O-EPM of his career. Since 2002, only James Harden (2019) and Steph Curry (2016, 2018) have posted higher season-long EPM marks.
Detractors have made plenty of noise about Jokic’s absurd on-off numbers and those indeed tell us more about the state of the Denver Nuggets than of his greatness. But Jokic, regardless of any team-based splits, is having one of the best offensive seasons of the past 20 years. His 3-point shooting (50.6 percent on 4.1 attempts per 75 possessions) will regress, but his interior scoring and playmaking are still at all-time levels of potency.
He hasn’t had the strongest defensive season, posting the lowest defensive EPM (plus-0.6) and block rate (1.8 percent) of his career. It’s reasonable to build a case for Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he hasn’t had the strongest defensive year either, recording the lowest D-EPM (plus-0.4) since his sophomore season.
Even factoring in his defensive limitations and Denver’s lack of team success, Jokic’s season has been too stellar to ignore. He’s playing like an all-time great offensive engine and should be rewarded for that.
Honorable mentions: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jayson Tatum
Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama
Discussion centering around Defensive Player of the Year feels quieter than most years. Most expected Victor Wembanyama to run away with the award after finishing second in voting last season. He’s playing like a top-10 player as expected with his elite defense as the primary generator of that value. He’s currently seventh in D-EPM (plus-2.6).
He’s the best shot-blocker in the NBA by a huge margin, posting a 9.8 percent block rate and 3.4 blocks per game. Wembanyama leads all players (min. 20 minutes per game) in block rate and the only close competitor is Walker Kessler (9.5 percent), who can spend all of his energy on defense.
According to NBA RAPM, opponents shoot 16.4 percent worse than their average at the rim with Wembanyama contesting, ranking third in the NBA behind Chet Holmgren and Kevin Durant. His 5.7 percent STOP rate (steals, offensive fouls drawn and blocks recovered) is the best in the NBA.
Awarding Wembanyama the trophy would break some historical precedent. The San Antonio Spurs are 20th in defensive rating, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. That drops to 110.8 with Wembanyama on the floor. The last Defensive Player of the Year to lead a defense outside the top 10 was Dikembe Mutombo in 1998 when his Atlanta Hawks finished 13th in defensive rating (102.5). The only winner with a team defensive rating finish outside of the top 15 was Alvin Robertson, coincidentally for a 16th-ranked Spurs defense.
Defenders like Draymond Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. are also having excellent seasons for elite defenses. None match Wembanyama’s individual impact as a rim deterrent, shot blocker and perimeter defender. If there’s any player to shatter historical precedent here, Wembanyama will be that player.
Honorable Mentions: Evan Mobley, Draymond Green, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jalen Williams
Rookie of the Year: Jared McCain
The Philadelphia 76ers unearthed another gem outside of the lottery and Jared McCain has sparkled so far. He leads all rookies in scoring (15.8 points per game) and usage rate (25.1 percent), acting as a viable volume creator for these hospital Sixers at times. He’s been efficient in his role, posting an above average true shooting percentage of 59.4.
Most rookies can’t match McCain’s primary creation, notching games of 34, 30 and 29 points, all on strong efficiency. Beyond his high-level shooting (38.2 percent on 8.6 attempts per 75 possessions), his veteran savvy as an off-ball mover, pick-and-roll decision maker and crafty driver all fuel his early success.
As the Sixers’ health improves, McCain slots effortlessly into a lower usage, off-ball role. His movement, off-ball shooting, driving off of the catch and processing all blend with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. Few rookies are as scalable as McCain in their role and usage.
His defense hasn’t been stellar, but that’s true for most rookie guards. As an offensive centerpiece and complementary weapon, McCain is a firmly good NBA player today. Most rookies, especially in this draft class, are not that. The only other rookie playing above 25 minutes per game near McCain’s level is Stephon Castle, but McCain’s creation load outweighs him. Even if McCain’s numbers dip some due to lower usage, he’ll still likely be deserving of the award.
Honorable mentions: Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Jaylen Wells
Most Improved Player: Franz Wagner
Wagner’s recent oblique injury may complicate this pick, but for now, his leap deserves recognition and praise. With Paolo Banchero sidelined after a few games, Wagner commandeered the Orlando Magic offense and kept it afloat. Before his injury, Wagner tallied 24.4 points. 5.7 assists, 5.6 boards and 1.7 steals per game, all career-high marks.
He’s currently ranked fifth in EPM (plus-5.3) and the only player in the NBA with an O-EPM and D-EPM in the 95th percentile or better. He’s doing all of this without a major 3-point rebound, still shooting 32.1 percent from deep with an overall true shooting of 57.3 percent, hovering right around the league average. Wagner has maintained league average efficiency, despite a massive spike from last year in usage rate (31 percent from 25.7 percent).
For more detail on Wagner and the rest of the contenders, read our recent Most Improved Player ladder here.
Honorable mentions: Jalen Williams, Evan Mobley, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson
Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard
Pritchard took another leap into his fifth NBA season, becoming one of the league’s most productive offensive pieces. He’s 26th in EPM (plus-3.3) and 12th (plus-3.8) in O-EPM. Despite the highest minute share of his career (28.3), Pritchard has improved his per-game scoring (16.1 points) and efficiency (67.4 percent true shooting). That’s no easy feat.
His shooting has always been spectacular, but Pritchard is driving and creating downhill with a new sense of urgency. He’s scorching hot at the rim (71 percent) and from midrange (65.5 percent), winning with his handle and carving out space at the hoop using craft and strength. Few NBA players can match Pritchard’s efficiency. He’s one of three players this season scoring over 15 points per game on better than 67 percent true shooting (Nikola Vucevic, Domantas Sabonis).
It’s incredibly rare for guards to score with this kind of efficiency on the volume Pritchard shoots, especially beyond the arc. That, combined with his turnover avoidance (career-low 8.4 percent turnover rate), makes him an extremely reliable offensive option. With the way he’s playing right now, Pritchard would be a strong starting guard option on many teams.
Honorable mentions: Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Ty Jerome, Naz Reid
Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a mainstay among the Eastern Conference’s top teams over the last few seasons. Despite their success, the Cavs’ limitations felt clear, especially on the offensive end. Kenny Atkinson’s arrival coincided with Cleveland’s ascension towards the top of the NBA. To this point, the Cavs boast the NBA’s best record (21-4) and its third-best net rating (plus-10.2, per Cleaning the Glass). That’s Cleveland’s highest net rating since the 2008-09 season (plus-11.9).
Atkinson’s transformed Cleveland’s offensive into a truly elite unit for the first time since LeBron James left town. The Cavs are third in offensive rating (121.1) after finishing 18th, seventh and 19th over the past three seasons with similar talent. He’s installed copious off-ball movement and is maximizing the Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen pairing more than ever before.
Nearly the entirety of Cleveland’s players are experiencing career years. Mobley’s a full-fledged star and a more confident shooter and handler. Darius Garland bounced back from a nightmare 2023-24 and is playing the best ball of his career. Ty Jerome, Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro have all taken leaps. They’ve done all of this without the services of an injured Max Strus.
All these factors — player improvement, team success and offensive evolution — are no coincidence. Atkinson is the architect, helping Cleveland reach its ceiling. We’ll see how this team fares in the playoffs, but this is a regular season award and the Cavs are an undeniable regular season buzzsaw.
Honorable mentions: Ime Udoka, Jamahl Mosley, Mark Daigneault, Joe Mazzulla
