The San Francisco 49ers are heading to Lincoln Financial Field as the No. 2 overall seed and with the reputation of having the NFL’s top defense.
Even with elite pass rushers and an All-Pro linebacker, this 49ers’ defense has holes and it can be found in the back four, and when teams are able to physically match up with DeMeco Ryan’s defense up front.
Philadelphia (14-3) defeated the New York Giants 38-7 on Saturday to clinch a spot in the title game and then watched on Sunday evening, as the Niners (13-4) defeated the Cowboys 19-12 at Levi’s Stadium.
Philadelphia rushed for 268 yards on the ground as offensive coordinator Shane Steichen got back to his superb run-pass ratio on Saturday night, as the Birds ran 69 total plays, 44 of those plays coming on the ground.
With kickoff fast approaching, here are 13 more stats to know.
Eagles offensive line dominance
Having success in the running game is a must for any team looking to win a Super Bowl and Philadelphia does it better than any team remaining in the postseason.
The Eagles gained 150 rushing yards before contact in their 38-7 Divisional Round victory.
The Eagles have accounted for half of the 6 games this season where an offense gained at least 150 rushing yards over expected; 2 came against the Giants.#NYGvsPHI | Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/b3txaqKgDr
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 22, 2023
The Eagles’ dominance can be found in the numbers and the Birds gained 150 yards rushing before any Giants defender attempted to make a tackle.
Jalen Hurts makes the impossible throws look easy
The Eagles star is ranked ahead of Joe Burrow when it comes to completing difficult throws.
Jalen Hurts (97) is the only quarterback with an NGS passing score of 90-plus on passes with a completion probability of less than 50% (i.e. low probability attempts).
Joe Burrow ranks 2nd with a score of 88.#SFvsPHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/T42vyUogvP
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 26, 2023
Fred Warner is outstanding
Warner will likely play a role in spying QB Jalen Hurts, containing RB Miles Sanders, and covering TE Dallas Goedert down the deep middle of the field.
Fred Warner has allowed -9.6 receptions over expected this season (incl. playoffs), 2nd-fewest among LB.
Warner has finished in the top 5 among LB in receptions over expected allowed in 4 of his 5 seasons in the NFL.#SFvsPHI | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/bBiM8yxgN3
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023
Expect A.J. Brown on deep routes
The Eagles may start the contest running the football, but they’re going to look for the shock and awe-approach on the 49ers at some point Sunday.
A.J. Brown set career-highs in receiving yards (649), touchdowns (7), and receiving yards over expected (+222) on vertical routes as the Eagles main target in 2022.
The 49ers allowed 1,248 yards to vertical routes this season (5th-most in the NFL).#SFvsPHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/wsD36ml82m
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023
Brown has been a dominant deep ball receiver this season and the 49ers have struggled to contain it.
Hurts to Goedert
The Eagles are going to test the 49ers deep and a lot of that action will take place on the deep seam.
Jalen Hurts targeted the seams on 48.1% of his passes this season (17th in NFL), significantly higher than in his first 2 seasons (37.8%, lowest).
Hurts has been productive on those passes, earning the 2nd-highest NGS passing score (93, incl. playoffs).#SFvsPHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/YwwMEOs6MD
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023
Jonathan Gannon does'nt have to blitz
Much has been made about the Eagles’ defensive coordinator not blitzing at a high percentage and there’s a reason for that.
He doesn’t have to.
The Eagles recorded 50 sacks when sending four-or-fewer pass rushers during the regular season, 7 more than any other defense in a season in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
They tacked on 4 more sacks on non-blitzes in the Divisional Round vs the Giants. #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/ewMD9I3mm4
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023
50 of the Eagles’ 77 sacks this season came when rushing four or fewer pass rushers.
49ers run defense is stout
The 49ers have a stout run defense, but they’ll face a bigger bully on Sunday when the Eagles’ offensive line gets to work.
The 49ers have allowed -182 rushing yards over expected this season (incl. playoffs), their 2nd-straight season under -100.
The 49ers run defense will be tested in the NFC Championship against an Eagles offense that has gained +428 RYOE (7th).#SFvsPHI | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/GI1XNh3g7Y
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023
Jalen Hurts in elite company
Which quarterback impressed YOU the most in the Divisional Round?
The top four quarterbacks by the NGS passing score all advanced to Conference Championship Sunday. Find out who finished with the top score!
🎙️: @edwithsports pic.twitter.com/bKEKOq3y1Z
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 25, 2023
Josh Sweat
Nick Bosa and Haason Reddick are the pass rushers to watch on Sunday, but no player on the field bends and gets around the edge like Josh Sweat.
Josh Sweat has averaged a career-best pass rush get-off of 0.75 seconds this season (incl. playoffs), ranking in the top 10 for the 4th straight season.
Sweat's elite burst has helped him record career-highs in pressure rate (15.0%, 6th) & sack rate (3.7%, 2nd).#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/OvMpOQn7io
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 23, 2023
Fred Warner all-world
Fred Warner has allowed the fewest receptions over expected (-29.7) as the nearest defender since entering the league in 2018 (including playoffs).
Warner allowed just 2 receptions for 8 yards with an INT on 5 targets in the Divisional Round vs the Cowboys.#DALvsSF | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/QWnuQN43oa
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 23, 2023
George Kittle
Sunday’s matchup offers two similar and dynamic tight ends in George Kittle (49ers) and Dallas Goedert (Eagles).
George Kittle gained a season-high +45 receiving yards over expected in the Divisional Round.
TE RecYOE Leaders (2022, incl. playoffs):
🥇 Kittle: +198
🥈 Dallas Goedert: +189
🥉 Travis Kelce: +184#DALvsSF | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/QeNEooK0Dv— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 23, 2023
Eagles have to jump the in-route
Brock Purdy threw 177 of his 214 passing yards targeting in-breaking routes in the 49ers' Divisional Round win.
Purdy, In-Breaking Routes (since Week 13):
🔸 89 NGS passing score (4th)
🔸 +50.3 pass EPA (1st)#DALvsSF | Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/nBtWoDDeVy— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 23, 2023
Brock Purdy loves the in-route and Sunday’s matchup could set up a situation for C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Reed Blankenship, or Kyzir White to log a pick-six.
Jonathan Gannon loves to play a combination of man-zone all while on the move and the veteran defensive coordinator will look to confuse Purdy in space, and down the seams.
The 49ers have targeted in-breaking routes at the highest rate in the NFL in each of the last five seasons (2022: 45.5%).
Only 3 other teams (2022 Dolphins, 2018 & 2020 Ravens) have targeted in-breakers at a 40%+ rate in a season since 2018.#DALvsSF | #FTTB
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 23, 2023
Jalen Hurts quick release
A big reason for Hurts’ drastic improvement this season can be found in his efficient decision-making and quick release.
Jalen Hurts limited the Giants pass rush to a 12.0% pressure rate by leaning on the quick game.
The 3 quickest times to throw of Hurts' career all came against the 2022 Giants:
🔹 Divisional Round: 2.41 sec
🔹 Week 18: 2.53 sec
🔹 Week 14: 2.54 sec#NYGvsPHI | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/jQxKv8TK1B— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 22, 2023
