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Fortune

Chris Morris

EA's Madden has a 70% accuracy picking the Super Bowl winner. Here's who it says will win this year

EA SPORTS Madden (Organization) Patriots Chiefs Eagles Seahawks Steelers Super Bowl Broncos Colts

Photo of quarterback Jalen Hurts (No. 1) of the Philadelphia Eagles (left) and quarterback Patrick Mahomes (No. 15) of the Kansas City Chiefs (right). (Credit: Dylan Buell—Getty Images)

Looking to put a wager on the Super Bowl, but haven’t kept up with the 2022–23 season?

A simulation of the game, run on Madden NFL 23, says the Eagles will emerge victorious, according to EA’s Madden football franchise. The company that has accurately predicted the winner of the Super Bowl for 13 of the past 19 years (including the exact score in 2015) says the Eagles will beat the Kansas City Chiefs, winning the game by a score of 31–17.

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is expected to have an especially good game, with 282 passing yards, three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing), and 88 rushing yards.

Here’s how the (video) game expects the (real world) game to go:

First quarter: Kansas City will be on the board first, when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes connects with Travis Kelce. Hurts will tie it shortly thereafter with a nine-yard run.

Second quarter: Both teams score field goals, leaving the game tied at 10 as all play stops for a Rhianna concert.

Third quarter: The Eagles come out of halftime energized, scoring two touchdowns from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Chiefs score one of their own, when Isiah Pacheco breaks away for a 21-yard run.

Fourth quarter: Eagles running back Miles Sanders caps the game with a final touchdown, putting it out of reach for the Chiefs.

It’s just a video game, though, right? Why should anyone pay attention? Well, track record aside, the game leans heavily into artificial intelligence during development, which could improve its predictive performance.

The NFL has been keeping statistics about games and players since 1920, but in 2014 it outfitted RFID tags onto the shoulder pads of every player in a program called Next Gen Stats, later adding them to referee uniforms, first-down markers, and the pylons at the edge of the end zone. Using those, the league was able to capture a treasure trove of more precise data, including player speed, field location, and movement patterns. Madden NFL 22, which debuted in 2021, deeply integrated that data, allowing it to make on-screen players more realistic than ever.

Don’t discount that record, though. If you’d like a little historical perspective, here’s a look at the game’s complete track record. (Bottom line? It’s a good guide, but don’t count on it for the over/under.)