Peter Dutton is considering which crossbench MPs he could do a deal with to form minority government, naming independents Bob Katter and Dai Le as potential allies, as polling predicts the Coalition could fall just short of majority at the upcoming federal election.
YouGov’s latest pre-election polling, released Sunday, projects the Coalition could win 73 lower house seats at the 2025 federal election – shy of the 76 needed to form majority government – with Labor trailing at 66 seats, the independents winning eight and the Greens, Katter’s Australian Party and Centre Alliance winning a seat each.
The forecast, if accurate, would mean the Coalition would have to gain the support of three crossbench MPs to form a minority government in the 48th parliament, which will revert to 150 seats after a redistribution, one fewer than the current parliament.
In a 60 Minutes interview on Sunday night, Dutton said he would have conversations with Le, Katter and teal MP Allegra Spender in the event neither major party wins at least 75 seats.
“I think there’s … at least a conversation to have,” he said.
Le told Guardian Australia she didn’t want to be presumptuous about her re-election.
“Should my community give me the opportunity to represent them again, then I will continue fighting for them, with whoever governs,” she said.
Dutton had earlier ruled out working with the Greens entirely while singling out teal MPs, including Kate Chaney, Monique Ryan and Zoe Daniel, as independents who will “never” back the Coalition in government.
“We’ll talk with the crossbench but I can promise you that it’s clear from their voting pattern, Kate Cheney, Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan, 80% of the time, they support the Greens,” Dutton told Sky News in an interview aired on Sunday morning.
“They will never come our way.”
Spender, the independent Wentworth MP, told ABC’s Insiders she would be open to helping either major party to form government but said it depended on the shape of the crossbench and what major party leaders were willing to negotiate.
“I’m very open to working with … a Coalition government, and I’m open to working with the Labor government, but that depends on what they’re actually going to put on the table and the seriousness, frankly, of what they’re putting on the table as well,” she said.
While polling has suggested in recent months a minority Labor government was also a likely outcome of the 2025 election, the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, ruled out any deal with the Greens in October.
If YouGov’s polling is reflected in the results of the federal election, which must be held on or before 17 May, it means Albanese would have to secure the support of nearly every crossbencher in the lower house to govern – a scenario that would be incredibly challenging.
The polling shows a national two-party preferred swing toward the Coalition of 3.2%, with Labor predicted to lose 15 seats, including those held by two government ministers – Pat Conroy in Shortland and Kristy McBain in Eden-Monaro.
Labor’s primary vote is predicted to decline by 3.5 percentage points despite projections the party would pick up three seats from the Greens in Brisbane and one from Le in western Sydney.
Meanwhile, the polling forecasts the Coalition to make gains in Victoria, NSW and Western Australia.
Labor-held seats in Melbourne, such as Aston and Chisholm, seats such as Tangney in Perth, and outer-Sydney seats in Werriwa and Macquarie are all predicted to turn blue.
However, none of the seats the opposition lost to teal MPs at the last federal election are expected to change hands. While the primary vote for independents is expected to rise, according to the polling, it does not necessarily translate to more independent-held seats.
A Labor loss at the polls would make it the first single-term federal administration since 1931.
The possibility of a hung parliament – the first since 2010 – could present a challenge to both party leaders who are promising to convince the public they can deliver their election promises in full.
At the 2010 federal election, both Labor and the Coalition won 72 seats each, requiring the leaders, Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, to negotiate a confidence and supply deal with crossbenchers.
Gillard became the country’s 43rd prime minister after striking a deal with the now Greens leader, Adam Bandt, as well as independent MPs Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor.
While the minority government arrangement was often criticised by politicians and commentators, it was considered largely successful and resulted in being one of the most productive in Australia’s history in terms of legislative output.
• This article was amended on 17 February 2025 because an earlier version said that the Coalition could fall two seats short of majority at the upcoming federal election. In fact 76 seats are required to guarantee majority support in the next parliament. Reaching 75 seats would be enough only if the Speaker was an independent or came from an opposition party.
