Leaked polling reveals Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is a huge drag on the party’s chances in Saturday’s Aston by-election in Victoria.
Labor polling obtained by Sky News Australia shows Mr Dutton is extremely unpopular in the traditionally safe outer-Melbourne seat being vacated by Liberal MP Alan Tudge.
Conducted between March 12-14, the survey found just 21 per cent of people had a favourable view of Mr Dutton, Sky reports.
Fifty per cent were unfavourable, with 24 per cent unsure and five per cent having never heard of him.
Among Liberal voters, 23 per cent had an unfavourable view of Mr Dutton compared to 45 per cent favourable and 30 per cent unsure.
In contrast, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s ratings in the seat were 56 favourable, 26 per cent unfavourable with 17 per cent unsure in the polling, reports Sky.
Labor has framed the by-election around Mr Dutton’s leadership.
Its polling shows the party falling behind the Coalition 48-52 on a two-party preferred basis. But that would still be a swing of 0.8 per cent towards Labor.
The Liberals hold Aston by 2.8 per cent, after suffering a more than 7 per cent swing against them at last May’s federal election.
Dutton urges unity
The polling emerged as Mr Dutton called for Liberal unity following bitter divisions within the party’s Victorian branch.
He told federal Coalition MPs at a joint party room meeting on Thursday the by-election would be a tight contest, and stressed the need for a united front.
It follows the decision by the Victorian Liberals to suspend state MP Moira Deeming for nine months for speaking at an anti-trans rights rally that was crashed by neo-Nazis.
“We can see in Victoria at the moment the damage that can be caused and the opportunities lost when we don’t act as a team and when we talk about ourselves,” Mr Dutton told the meeting.
“We should never feel complacent about this. That is going to be a tight race. It’s going to be hard fought.”
Labor has campaigned hard in Aston, including multiple appearances by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and some of his senior ministers, as well as on-the-ground campaigning by other MPs.
Mr Dutton has also made several visits to Aston – in contrast to his low profile in NSW during the state election campaign.
A sitting government has not won a seat off the opposition at a by-election for more than 100 years.
Former union organiser Mary Doyle is the Labor candidate, while the Liberals are running Melbourne City councillor Roshena Campbell.
Senior lecturer in politics at Monash University Zareh Ghazarian said while history may be against the government, the Liberals could be on unsteady ground.
“It would seem to be an automatic Liberal win, but with the factors we are seeing here – unpopular Victorian Liberals, a long-standing MP retiring, people aren’t turning up at the same rate – I suspect there are dangerous signs for the Liberal Party, who may struggle to hold on to Aston,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“The momentum seems to be against the Liberals at the moment.”
Victorian Labor senator Jess Walsh told parliament that Mr Dutton would be an asset.
“There is no better campaigner for Labor in the seat of Aston than Mr Dutton,” she said.
The Australian Electoral Commission is concerned about a low voter turnout.
Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers said pre-poll figures were down 5 per cent compared with last year’s poll.
“By-elections have traditionally had less people participate than in a full federal election but it’s just as important to have your say,” Mr Rogers said.
“Typically, if someone casts their vote early in one election, they’ll do so in the next one as well, and we’re not quite seeing that here, which makes us worry about low participation.”
The commission has sent out more communication to voters for Saturday’s by-election than it has for any previous by-election.
More than 14,000 people had cast their votes at early voting centres as of Monday night, down from the more than 18,540 voters at the same point last year.
There have been more than 17,500 applications for postal votes.
Dr Ghazarian said the low turnout may be due to election fatigue among voters.
“They’ve gone through the general election in May and the state election in November in Victoria and are maybe thinking three times in a year going to an election may be a bit much,” he said.
– with AAP
