In a shock result described as the biggest shift ever seen in the Netherlands, the far-right, anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders is set to become the largest party in the Dutch parliament.
The PVV is projected to win 37 seats of the 150 in the lower house, making him already nearly half-way to the 76 needed to form a majority.
The result is “an enormous surprise”, said Sarah de Lange, professor of political pluralism at Amsterdam University.
She tweeted just after midnight: “What just happened in the Netherlands?”
So what happens now?
The Dutch have one of the world’s most proportional, splintered multiparty systems, which means it is difficult to form a coalition, and you don’t vote for a prime minister either.
In order to form a majority, something the parliamentary website describes as “a complex and exciting process”, the leaders of political parties appoint a scout to start talks. Within a week of elections, the sitting parliament appoints an informateur to carry out detailed negotiations with the most likely candidates.
If there’s a potential alliance, the formateur – probably the next prime minister – concludes talks, divvying up cabinet and ministerial posts according to parties’ number of seats and policy preferences. They sign a coalition agreement, typically as thick as a Charles Dickens novel, present their plans in parliament and have a vote of confidence.
Sounds simple. Is it?
Far from it. The last government took a record 271 days to form.
This time looks particularly thorny. For the first time, Wilders has the largest party and is declaring it can “no longer be ignored,” but it is by no means clear whether he will be able to win enough support to form a coalition. It also unclear, however, if the other parties can shut the PVV out as they have done in previous elections when the party came second or third.
Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, head of the centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), has said she won’t serve in a government under a man she sees as divisive, saying on election night: “I have said I don’t see that happening because Mr Wilders cannot form a majority.” The ball, she indicated, was in Wilders’ court.
The left-wing bloc led by Frans Timmermans has ruled out a move. So Wilders really needs the VVD and its 24 seats.
Another key player is Pieter Omtzigt, leader of the centre-right New Social Contract party. During the campaign he also excluded working with Wilders due to his anti-constitutional plans to ban Islamic schools, mosques and the Qur’an.
But on election night Omtzigt appeared to strike a more hedged tone, saying: “We are available to govern. This is a difficult outcome. We will discuss on Thursday in what way we could best contribute.”
A coalition of the Freedom party, VVD, and the NSC would have about 81 seats combined, but whether it is possible is another question.
Any other options?
Only if Wilders fails to form a coalition could others try to make a pick’n’mix of leanings. But a leftwing alliance looks virtually impossible. A fragile government dealing with fractious issues of immigration, housing and cost of living could easily fall, sparking new elections.
“Government formation is really a black box for voters,” says Matthijs Rooduijn, associate professor of political science at Amsterdam University. “It’s really not possible to vote for policymakers directly or indirectly. That might be one of the reasons some voters are frustrated.”
New MPs are sworn in on 6 December and until there’s a new government, the retiring prime minister, Mark Rutte, runs things with current ministers. Some observers suggest such periods of caretaker government are the smoothest.
