A Laurieston-based atmospheric scientist has sounded a warning over climate change after October shattered local temperature records.
Geoff Monk suggests the past month’s exceptional warmth on its own does not provide incontrovertible proof of human-caused global warming.
But the former Met Office forecaster says taken together recent years show that an unmistakable climate shift is taking place.
To illustrate his point, Mr Monk likened the warming trend to gamblers loading dice to turn the odds in their favour.
He said: “Strictly speaking you can’t attribute any single event to climate change, you can’t do it.
“But if you divide the range of temperatures into above and below normal it’s like a throw of the dice.
“A three or four is average but we are throwing many more sixes than expected – that’s what’s changed.
“In terms of temperature, those dice are gradually being weighted towards warmer fives and sixes as opposed to colder ones and twos.
“And that means we are consistently getting far more months at the warmer end of the spectrum and far fewer months at the colder end.”
According to Mr Monk’s weather station records, not a single air frost was recorded throughout the entire month.
And on some nights temperatures were so mild they almost matched daytime readings.
He described October as “exceptional” after an already warm year so far.
Mr Monk said: “It was the warmest October since I have been taking records.
“I suspect it’s the warmest it has ever been in this particular part of the world – it is that far above the normal.
“It is continuous warm winds off the sea night after night and extensive cloud cover – particularly in the second half of the month – which has kept the temperatures up.
“There really have been some exceptional temperatures overnight – there were no air frosts at all.”
Mr Monk said the average minimum temperature for October was a balmy 8.9C – way above the norm of around 6.0C.
By way of comparison, the mean overnight for October 2019 was 4.0C – almost 5.0C colder.
Last month was also warm during the day with an average maximum of 14.0C compared with 12.0C in 2019.
Overall, October 2022 averaged 11.5C compared with a near-average 8.0C in 2019.
That temperature spike in the middle month of autumn has affected nature too.
The growing season has been extended and many flowering plants have been thrown into confusion.
Mr Monk said: “Unusually, October was warmer at night than September.
“We are way above with the minimum temperatures.”
Readings at Laurieston show that at no time did the mercury dip below zero in October.
The coldest night fell on the 15th when the mercury dipped to 1.0C.
Warmest minimum was on the 28th with a balmy 13.8C.
October was also a particularly wet month with 267mm (10.4ins) of rainfall – more than 50 per cent above average.
