The Duke Blue Devils could be the future national champions of the 2025 NCAA Tournament based on adjusted offense and adjusted defense, which 88% of all Final Four teams had dating back to 2002. Approximately 88% of Final Four teams were top 50 in both metrics.
Duke Ranks 3rd In Offense, 4th In Defense
In addition, 69 of 88 (78%) of Final Four teams were either top 10 in adjusted offense or adjusted defense. In the South Region, teams that fit both criteria include Auburn (2nd in off./12 in def.), Michigan State (27th in off./5th in def.), Iowa State (20th in off./9th in def.), and Texas A&M (44th in off./7th in def.).
As for the East Region, Duke is 3rd in offense and 4th in defense, while Alabama is 4th in offense and 32nd in defense. However, both Wisconsin (13th in off./27th in def.) and Arizona (12th in off./33rd in def.) barely miss the qualifications.
Using Kenpom’s pre tournament data, we ideally want to see a team be good (or decent) on both offense and defense.
88% of Final Four teams were top 50 in both adjusted offense and adjusted defense.
— Dalton Kates (@Dalton_Kates) March 17, 2025
1) 95% of National Champions have ranked 21st or better in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The only outlier: 2014 UCONN
*Pre-tournament rankings from KenPom* pic.twitter.com/ayCTV8gpQv
— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) March 17, 2025
In the Midwest Region, Houston is 10th in offense and 2nd in defense, followed by Tennessee (18th in off./3rd in def.) and Gonzaga (9th in off./29th in def.). Clemson is 24th in offense and 16th in defense as well.
Then there’s the West Region. Florida is 1st in offense and 10th in defense, while Texas Tech is 6th in offense and 37th in defense. Maryland is also 28th in offense and 6th in defense. This is the weakest region with no other teams qualifying or being anywhere close to matching the criteria.
Majority Of National Champions Have Ranked 21st Or Better In Adjusted Offensive Efficiency
More importantly, 95% of national champions have ranked 21st or better in adjusted offensive efficiency. The only outlier was UConn in 2014. To add to that, 95% of winners ranked 37th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency margin and 100% ranked 44th or better. Baylor in 2021 is the outlier because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
A whopping 11 teams meet both the offensive (top-21) and defensive (top-37) qualifications this year:
- Duke: 1st overall, 3rd in adjusted offense, 4th in adjusted defense
- Florida: 2nd overall, 1st in adjusted offense, 10th in adjusted defense
- Houston: 3rd overall 10th in adjusted offense, 2nd in adjusted defense
- Auburn: 4th overall, 2nd in offensive rating, 12th in adjusted defense
- Tennessee: 5th overall, 18th in adjusted offense, 3rd in adjusted defense
- Alabama: 6th overall, 4th in adjusted offense, 32nd in adjusted defense
- Texas Tech: 7th overall, 6th in adjusted offense, 37th in adjusted defense
- Gonzaga: 9th overall, 9th in adjusted offense, 29th in adjusted defense
- Iowa State: 10th overall, 20th in adjusted offense, 9th in adjusted defense
- Wisconsin: 13th overall, 13th in adjusted offense, 27th in adjusted defense
- Arizona: 14th overall, 12th in adjusted offense, 33rd in adjusted defense
Per KenPom, here are the best teams in adjusted efficiency rating since 2002:
- 2025 Duke – 38.16
- 2015 Kentucky- 37.43
- 2021 Gonzaga – 36.62
- 2025 Florida – 36.16
- 2025 Houston – 35.44
- 2025 Auburn – 35.05
This is hands down the best NCAA Tournament we’ve seen in many years.
