Dublin sea-levels are rising faster than climate change models predicted, according to new research from Maynooth University.
Scientists at the Hamilton Institute and ICARUS Climate Research Centre analysed trends in Dublin Bay from 1938 to 2016.
In recent years they found the sea is rising at around double the rate of levels globally, leading them to the conclusion local factors are having an impact.
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Amin Shoari Nejad, who led the Ocean Science published study, said: “Fluctuations are identified with sea levels rising from 1982 to 1988, before falling from 1989 to 1996, and once again rising from 1997 to 2016 at a rate of 7 mm per year.
“This recent sea level rise is faster than expected at approximately double the rate of global sea level rise."
Dr Gerard McCarthy, ICARUS Climate Research Centre and the Department of Geography at Maynooth University, added: “If you look at too short a timeframe, the fluctuations over decades could impact estimates of trends.
“But this research has taken a longer view and what we are most confident about from looking at the stretch of years is the overall rise.”
Researchers compared records for Dublin Port, Arklow and Howth Harbour as well as datasets from the UK and France for their data quality checks.
Following the discovery, they are continuing to explore the reasons behind the fluctuations with colleagues at UCC and DCU.
“Overall sea level rise is in line with expected trends but large multidecadal variability has led to higher rates of rise in recent years,” added study leader Amin.
The research was carried out in collaboration with Prof Andrew Parnell at the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, Dr Brian Kelleher of the School of Chemical Sciences, DCU, and Emeritus Professor Robert Devoy, Department of Geography, UCC, Professor Peter Thorne and Alice Green of the ICARUS Climate Research Centre.
Flood risk.
The latest information from Climate Central predicts parts of Dublin are already at serious risk of flooding within just eight years if drastic action isn’t taken.
With global warming already at 1.2 degrees since the industrial revolution began, increased emissions risk driving it even higher than the 1.5 degree cap promised in the Paris Agreement.
If the world fails to deliver, parts of our coastal towns and villages could be flooded as early as 2030 according to Climate Central.
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