Despite what you may think, Canberra has just been through a dry spell.
Rainfall in the ACT was way below average for July, according to figures for the full month which have just been published.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, "July saw below average rainfall across the Australian Capital Territory, with monthly totals 30 per cent to 70 per cent of the average."
At the sampling point at Canberra Airport, for example, there was only half the rainfall in July compared with the average.
Most of the rain fell at the start of the month, with 10 to 20 millimetres falling in the first two days.
Memories of July's dryness may have been swept away by the downpours of the beginning of August but the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting that more rain is on the way, though not immediately: next week is likely to be chillier and drier.
It said that a "negative Indian Ocean Dipole" was under way - in plain English, a combination of conditions across the Indian Ocean which leads to wetter weather in Australia, particularly the Canberra part of Australia.
"A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is associated with above average winter-spring rainfall," the Bureau said.
"Warm waters in the east Indian Ocean, like we're seeing at the moment, increase the occurrence of low pressure systems over the southeast of Australia as well as the amount of moisture in the air," climate scientist Andrew King of the University of Melbourne said.
"This means there's a higher likelihood of rain generally and an increased chance of extreme rain events too."
And the wetter weather is not expected to ease soon. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting heavier rain than usual weather for the Canberra part of Australia right through until October.
It should be said that individual periods of dry or wet weather can't be attributed to global warming. There is no doubt that global warming is happening but as a trend over time.
Much remains to be understood about it: "The jury is still out on how climate change affects rainfall over most of Australia," Dr King said.
"It is vital we build a better understanding of rainfall changes under global warming so we can plan better for our future climate."
But the government's weather forecasters are in no doubt that it is happening.
"Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate," the Bureau said.
Its records indicate that in the 110 years to 2020, the country's climate warmed by 1.47 degrees. In that time, rainfall has diminished, and when the rain does come it is now more likely to be in intense short bursts.
In the immediate, future, though, Canberra's weather is forecast to be dry and colder.
The Bureau forecasts lows below freezing on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, rising to zero on Thursday and then a balmy three degrees minimum on Friday (with showers increasing as the temperature rises). Maximums will be around 13 and 14 degrees through the week.
But beyond next week, over the next few months, rain is more likely than usual.
