France’s electrical grid operator has lowered its forecast of power cuts through the rest of the winter, largely because of a reduced demand from consumers and higher than expected nuclear and hydropower availability.
"We absolutely have the means to avoid power cuts this winter,” Thomas Veyrenc, executive director of the French grid operator RTE, said Tuesday during an online press briefing to present the latest predictions.
RTE lowered its risk prediction to ‘medium’ after previously warning of power outages in the face of record low nuclear output and the impact of Russia's war in Ukraine on Europe's energy supplies.
Earlier in the month, French President Emmanuel Macron urged people not to panic over electricity shortages this winter.
Lower demand
Demand for power in France went down nine percent in the last four weeks, compared to the average consumption in 2014-2019 (the five years before the Covid pandemic), according to the grid operator in its report.
“The drop in electricity consumption is not an illusion, it is real and measurable,” said Veyrenc.
The government has urged households and businesses to cut electricity use by ten percent, and put in place an energy savings plan, to avoid power cuts this winter.
More nuclear than expected
In terms of supply, RTE predicts France’s nuclear availability will increase slightly to about 45 gigawatts by the end of January, as several reactors have gone back online.
Nuclear power utility EDF has faced an unprecedented number of reactor outages this year due to delayed maintenance and stress corrosion, resulting in a historically low electricity output.
But its higher-than-predicted output in December, combined with the filling of hydropower reservoirs during the autumn, following summer droughts, has lowered the risk of electricity shortages for the rest of winter, the grid operator added.
Looking ahead, EDF on Monday announced the delayed restart of several corrosion-hit reactors, in some cases until as late as June.
Gas stocks high
For gas, warmer than average temperatures in October and November delayed many people turning on the heat.
Since the beginning of the winter, French gas stocks have dropped from nearly full to about 85 percent, which is higher than previous years, RTE said.
There is no concern for the first part of winter thanks to high gas supply across the continent, but vigilance will be needed for the second half of winter, and especially next winter.
(with wires)
