For the very first time, the Round of 16 will feature a drafting track and a road course, just as Round of 12. It is likely to factor into this being the most unpredictable playoffs yet, and the drivers are weary of what lies ahead.
In the spring, a whopping 16 cars were involved in a crash at the end of the first lap at Atlanta Motor Speedway, which opens the 2024 playoffs, By the end of the race, 75% of the field had been in a wreck. This weekend's race will take place in the heat of the day, adding to the difficulty as the entire field races close together.
“The first round definitely needs to be respected because it’s not a cakewalk by any means," said Chase Elliott, who won the title in 2020. "That is what you get when you have these short rounds and every year, we put another speedway in there and you are going to get craziness. You keep fabricating this stuff and that is what you are going to get.”
His Hendrick Motorsports teammate and fellow Cup champion Kyle Larson wasn't too thrilled at seeing Atlanta as the first race of the first round. Beyond the chaotic nature of it, Larson is a driver with a dismal record at drafting tracks. He has crashed out in four of the last five Atlanta races, but sits atop the points heap after the reset, so he does have a cushion.
“Yeah, I don’t love seeing Atlanta in the playoffs at all," admitted Larson, but he "would rather them be in the first round than the second or third round. So yeah, I mean I think having the bonus points and playoff points that we’ve earned throughout the regular season is nice. But it still doesn’t guarantee anything. You still have to not run into any trouble, especially in back-to-back weeks, and hopefully you can just make it through.”
Atlanta isn't the only wildcard
Larson is also weary of the track that follows Atlanta -- Watkins Glen International. Displaced by the Olympic break, it is now part of the playoffs as well. “They’re just sketchy places," said Larson.
"You could totally blow a corner and fall back into the 20’s or worse and never recover from it. But yeah, we have been good there. From what I’ve heard, going back, I think our tires are going to be way softer, so the falloff is supposed to be a lot more. So I don’t think you can totally rely on results from the past either. I don’t know ... we might not be as dominate as we’ve been there either. Yeah, it’s just a little bit of unknowns going into Watkins Glen.”
Unknowns seem to be a theme of the opening round. Bristol Motor Speedway is the elimination race in the Round of 16. While that track's always a wildcard, it'll be exacerbated by the tire that caused mayhem in the spring race -- which was celebrated by NASCAR officials. The tire wear caused a record number of lead changes for any short track, with 54 total.
“The Bristol thing in the spring was just such a weird deal, and it sounds like they really want to recreate that too, from everything that I have heard," explained Elliott. "And I don’t know that we knew why that happened in the spring, but if they successfully fabricate craziness, then yeah, its going to be wild. But I don’t know that you are really going to know that until you get there, and you are kind of in the moment. So, I think in the scenarios you are asking about, you just have to be there and get in there and try to figure it out. Because some of those things are going to be hard to plan for.”
Another Hendrick driver who is unsure about what to expect at Bristol is William Byron. He damaged his car just 20 laps into the 500-lap race earlier this year. “I don’t know what to expect yet. I think we have some things to dissect and learn but haven’t really thought much about it. It really depends on how the resin interacts with the track and how the tires wear, or if they rubber in the track and it’s like how it’s been in the past. I’m not sure really. We’ll see.”
One driver who might actually be excited for this round is Daniel Suarez. Trackhouse Racing's lone bullet in the playoffs punched his ticket with a dramatic three-wide victory at Atlanta earlier this year. He was even part of the crash at the start of the race, but rebounded to win by just 0.003s.
“You never know," said Suarez when asked what to expect. "It’s going to be around 20 degrees warmer than last time so we’re going to have less grip. So, if you were seeing cars moving around you will see it even more. I believe we had a great car last time there and we’re hoping we have even a better one there this time. We just have to continue to push, continue to work hard and focus on one race at a time.”
Martin Truex Jr. sits last in the playoff standings after the reset, and he believes Atlanta "is going to be tough" for all drivers.
"Daytime race there, track’s getting older, cars won’t handle as well," he explained. "It's going to be a lot tougher than the spring. And the potential for chaos is higher."
He later added: "I mean, as crazy as it can be certain places and has been in the past, whatever you do, just race one at a time. Take one at a time and hopefully, you have a good race and go home and say you made it through one and let’s focus on the next one. That's all you can really do.”
Round of 16 "the hardest round"
It sure sounds like a lot of what happens over the next three weeks is outside of the driver's control. Ty Gibbs, who is making his first appearance in the playoffs, believes it will be the hardest round of all.
“Atlanta is definitely not in our control. There is a lot with missing wrecks, and making it and finishing the race, but Watkins Glen and Bristol – I don’t know too much about the tire. Bristol was pretty treacherous. I think it is going to be an interesting round. I think it is probably the hardest round, honestly. I mean – I’m the last seed in the playoffs – so myself to eighth place is like four points. If you win both stages, and you don’t finish the race, you are still losing at the end of the race. You have to finish the race. I might be wrong in that, but I’m pretty sure if you don’t finish the race, you are in trouble.
"A lot relies on being consistent and missing those wrecks.”
