US officials are scrambling to mitigate the security fallout after dozens of secret and top secret government documents were leaked online.
The documents first appeared last month on social media websites, beginning with Discord and 4Chan, but reporters were told US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin only became aware of the leak on Thursday.
On Sunday, the US Department of Defense confirmed that a full investigation has been launched into the origins of the leak.
Here's what we know and don't know about what appears to be the gravest leak of US secrets in years.
Are the documents real?
US officials believe most of the materials are genuine.
Some, however, appear to have been altered to show inflated U.S. estimates for Ukrainian battlefield casualties since Russia invaded in February 2022, as well as understated numbers for Russian forces.
It is unclear which of the documents might have been salted with misinformation and if they could be part of a Russian misinformation operation or a US scheme to mislead Moscow about Kyiv's war plans.
What kinds of documents are they?
The documents, which are marked "secret" or "top secret"' include sensitive briefing slides on how the war in Ukraine stood in February and March this year.
On Monday, the Pentagon said the documents appeared to be similar to the daily updates provided to its senior leaders as well as to other intelligence updates, though there appeared to be some inaccuracies.
Classification markings on the materials include:
- NONFORN, meaning they cannot be shared with foreign intelligence agencies.
- FVEY, or Five Eyes, referring to the spy services of the English-speaking nations of the US, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand. Materials marked that way would have been seen by thousands of people with security clearances.
- FISA, meaning they were collected under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the law that governs US monitoring of electronic communications.
But because not all of the documents are marked FVEY, US officials believe whoever leaked them could be American.
What do the documents reveal?
The documents cover a wide range of topics of interest to US policymakers, including:
Ukraine: Details about Ukrainian air strikes, the country's air defence vulnerabilities, and even the size of some Ukrainian military units.
Wagner group: Descriptions of a number of outreach efforts by the Russian mercenary group, including to Turkish "contacts," Haitian government officials, and the organisation's growing presence in Mali.
Middle East: Updates related to Iran's nuclear activities as well as information about how the United Arab Emirates is in talks with Russia to help build a maintenance centre for some weapons.
China: Predictions about how China would respond to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, along with details about British plans in the Indo-Pacific region.
North Korea: Details about missile tests by Pyongyang and an assessment that a February parade likely oversold the ICBM threat to the United States.
South America: Information about Brazilian officials' plans to visit Moscow in April to discuss a Ukraine mediation scheme.
Africa: An assessment that France is likely to struggle to achieve security goals in west and central Africa.
The Associated Press also saw an analysis of what might happen in the Russia-Ukraine war in certain "wild card" scenarios, including if Russian President Vladimir Putin or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were to die.
Were Putin to fire his top military advisers and the war to escalate, the document speculates he might authorise the use of tactical nuclear weapons if "elites question Putin's decision-making and Russian forces are unable to overcome manning and equipment shortfalls".
The death of Zelenskyy, in a worst-case scenario, might prompt Europe to restrict weapons shipments, the document says. But a "high-profile Ukrainian leader" might also retain domestic and foreign support as well, it says.
How were the documents leaked?
US officials do not yet know how the documents found their way online.
Pictures of creased documents — suggesting that they might have been folded so they could be hidden before being removed from the top-secret spaces to which such materials are confined — were posted to social media sites.
Those platforms included:
- Discord: an instant messaging platform popular with gamers
- 4Chan: an online messaging board
- Telegram: an encrypted global messaging app
- Twitter: a public social media site with millions of active users
The documents only garnered widespread attention in the last few days.
But open-source investigation site Bellingcat said it had evidence the documents – or at least some of them – had appeared on social media as far back as March or even January.
What have Australian officials said about the leak?
In an emailed statement to the ABC regarding the leak, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade expressed the Australian government's concerns over the disclosure of US classified information.
"We are pleased the US Department of Justice has acted quickly in announcing an investigation. The Australian Government is seeking further information on this matter and is unable to provide further comment at this stage," a spokesperson said.
What has the White House said about the leaks?
Not a lot.
The pentagon confirmed it was investigating the leaks but refused to comment on specific details.
And the White House followed similar suit in a press conference over the weekend.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby was asked if the US was bracing for more online releases.
"The truth and the honest answer to your question is: We don't know," he said. "And is that a matter of concern to us? You're darn right it is."
He said as US authorities sifted through the documents posted online, they were still trying to determine their validity, but had found at least some of the papers had been "doctored."
He and others would not go into detail.
"We don't know who's behind this, we don't know what the motive is," he said.
Reuters/AP/ABC
