Dow Jones futures sold off early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, though they're off overnight lows. President Donald Trump on Saturday signed an executive order imposing higher duties on goods from Canada, Mexico and China. Those Trump tariffs go into effect as of Tuesday, but the president said he'll hold talks with Canada and Mexico on Monday.
Amazon.com, Google parent Alphabet, Palantir Technologies and Fortinet headline key earnings this week, with all four stocks around buy points. All were retreating early Monday.
The stock market rally had a mixed but generally negative week amid a barrage of news, reversing lower Friday on the Trump tariffs news.
Tesla, which flirted with an early entry Friday, fell modestly early Monday.
Google stock is on IBD Leaderboard, with Tesla on the Leaderboard watchlist. Palantir stock and Fortinet are on the IBD 50.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures tumbled 1.3% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures skidded 1.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures plunged 1.7%. Futures are off their overnight lows, after Trump said he would hold talks with Canada and Mexico.
Crude oil rose more than 2% to above $74 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.51%.
The U.S. dollar is rising sharply in reaction to the Trump tariffs, especially against the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.
Bitcoin tumbled to $95,000, though off Sunday night lows. Many other cryptocurrencies are suffering much-bigger losses. Crypto often acts a risk sentiment gauge and the rising dollar, pressures digital assets.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Trump Tariffs Begin
President Trump signed an executive order Saturday imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and raising tariffs on Chinese goods by 10%. The U.S. set a 10% tariff on Canadian energy, with the lower rate an implicit acknowledgement that tariffs can lead to higher prices.
The tariffs are set to begin on Tuesday.
Canada said it will impose 25% tariffs on roughly $107 billion worth of U.S. goods, including EVs. Mexico also said it will retaliate, while China promised "corresponding countermeasures."
President Trump said Sunday night that he would hold talks with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, perhaps raising hopes for an 11th reprieve or modification to a new trade war.
President Trump on Friday said he would impose tariffs on steel, aluminum, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors in the coming months. Oil tariffs could come as early as Feb. 18, he said, "probably" at 10%.
Trump said he will "be doing something very substantial" in terms of targets vs. the European Union.
President Trump imposed tariff hikes in his first term, but mostly on China and excluding key items such as the Apple iPhone. Just Saturday's tariffs alone will be far larger than his first term's trade war. Targeting Canada and Mexico will cause significant disruptions to closely linked North American supply chains, especially for the auto industry. Several automakers may close plants in the U.S. soon.
Also, Trump's first-term tariffs followed major tax cuts. This time, tariffs are coming before Trump's tax agenda, which may end up being mostly about extending first-term cuts. Also, unlike in his first term, inflation is already elevated.
Trump campaigned on big tariff hikes and had threatened the specific duties on Canada, Mexico and China months ago.
A rising dollar in reaction to the Trump tariffs will offset some of the price increase from tariffs, but also pressure U.S. exporters and cut into profits from overseas operations.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally had a volatile week, with AI hardware plays crashing Monday on DeepSeek fears and capped by Friday's Trump tariffs news. In between? Massive earnings and a Fed meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.3% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index lost 1%. The Nasdaq composite slumped 1.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 retreated 0.9%.
The Dow and S&P 500 came within a whisker of record highs Friday before reversing lower amid the Trump tariffs confirmation. The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day line. The Russel 2000 hit resistance at its 50-day line multiple times, including Friday, but found support at its 21-day line.
Leading stocks had a mixed week. AI hardware stocks suffered huge losses Monday, though many rebounded considerably. A large number of stocks in the software, financial, medical fields and more offered buy signals, though many came off Friday's highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.57%, though it rose Friday. The Federal Reserve left interest rates steady Wednesday and signaled no hurry to take action going forward. However, Fed chief Jerome Powell signaled optimism that inflation was still in a cooling trend.
U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.85% to $72.53 a barrel last week.
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ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF slumped 3.9% last week, but came well off Monday's lows. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell 1%, with Palantir and Fortinet notable members. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF tumbled 6.85%, though off their worst levels.
ARK Innovation ETF climbed 0.8% last week and ARK Genomics ETF fell 0.9%. Tesla stock is the top holding across Ark Invest's ETFs.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF declined 2.3% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF tumbled 4% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund gained 1.75%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund retreated 1.9%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF climbed 1.2%
Trump Tariffs Kick Off: How They'll Impact Inflation And GDP
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock declined more than 3% early Monday, signaling a move below the 50-day line.
Beyond the general market weakness, the Trump tariffs could hurt Tesla's business in various ways. Canada's 25% EV tariff will hurt Tesla sales there. Canada could choose to longer coordinate with the U.S. on China EV tariffs. Beijing could retaliate directly or indirectly vs. Tesla. A rising dollar will affect overseas earnings.
However, U.S. auto production could fall due to the Trump tariffs, lifting prices and helping Tesla.
Meanwhile, Tesla significantly cut Cybertruck and Model 3 lease rates in the U.S. over the weekend.
Last week, Tesla stock edged down 0.5% to 404.60 last week after briefly flashing an early entry Friday. TSLA stock is in a base with a 488.54 traditional buy point, according to MarketSurge.
The EV giant came right up to a downward-sloping trendline on Friday, paring gains on the Trump tariff news. A move above Friday's intraday high of 419.99 would offer an early entry. Investors also could use the Jan. 17 high of 439.74 to enter Tesla stock.
Q4 earnings missed Wednesday night, even with a Bitcoin gain, with core auto margins hitting a multiyear low. But Musk was extremely bullish on the earnings call. He said he expects Tesla to start paid robotaxi rides in Austi.
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Google, Amazon, Palantir Around Buy Points
Palantir reports Monday night. PLTR stock popped 4.4% to 82.49 for the week, briefly topping an 84.80 all-time high on Friday, one day before the consolidation became a proper cup base. Investors can still use 84.80 as a place to enter.
Google earnings are due late Tuesday. Google stock climbed 1.9% to 204.02 for the week, rebounding from near the 10-week line to clear a trading range, with 201.42 or 202.29 as possible entries.
Amazon earnings are set for Thursday night. AMZN stock rose 1.2% to 237.68 this past week, rising further within a buy zone from a flat base.
Fortinet earnings also are late Thursday. Shares rallied 4.1% to 100.88 for the week. FTNT stock is between buy points at 100.59 or 101.
But all four stocks were down modestly early Monday.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally saw significant S&P 500 and Nasdaq losses amid massive news. The calendar will remain heavy with Google, Amazon, Palantir and Fortinet leading another big week of earnings. The jobs report will cap a heavy list of economic reports.
Markets will continue to grapple with the Trump tariffs and DeepSeek AI implications.
Even with the overall market volatility, a number of leading stocks flashed buy signals in the past few days, though many struggled Friday.
The headline risk is extremely high right now for individual stocks and the broader market. So if you do make buys, don't rush in or get too concentrated. Be ready to step back. Watchlists may need a significant redo after the past week. So make sure those are up to date.
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