Dow Jones futures fell solidly early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and especially Nasdaq futures. A new wave of Trump tariffs is on tap, with a lot of uncertainty about what President Donald Trump will announce. Deliveries from Tesla and Chinese rivals also are on tap, while the March jobs report closes out the coming week.
The stock market started last week strong but sold off as President Donald Trump announced auto tariffs followed by hot inflation reports.
Artificial intelligence hardware stocks slumped: Nvidia tumbled on China's restrictions on its chips while there were fresh signs of cooling AI hardware demand, including a weak IPO for Nvidia-backed CoreWeave.
Tesla stock snapped a long weekly losing streak but fell back from resistance. Palantir Technologies and Rubrik were among many growth leaders jumping Monday that later dived below their 50-day lines.
It's a time to be highly defensive.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures retreated 0.8% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures lost 1.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled 1.6%. Futures suggest that the Nasdaq composite will undercut its March low at the open, with the S&P 500 not far behind.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.2%.
A China manufacturing index edged up 0.3 point in March to 50.5, the highest in a year and above views for 50.4. The non-manufacturing index climbed 0.4 point to 50.8. Readings above 50 signal expansion.
Four giant state-owned China banks will sell up to RMB 520 billion ($72 billion) to boost capital levels, following through on Beijing pledges earlier in March.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live
Trump Tariffs: 'Liberation Day' Coming
On April 2, President Donald Trump is set to unveil "reciprocal" tariffs. The "Liberation Day" tariffs target other countries' duties and other trade barriers on U.S. goods. White House officials signaled Sunday that Trump has yet to make a final decision about the size and shape of the coming tariffs, but there are reports that he wants to go big.
Meanwhile, 25% auto tariffs, announced by Trump on March 26, come into effect April 3. Further, Trump's one-month suspension of 25% tariffs on many Canadian and Mexican goods is slated to in early April.
Tariffs on copper, lumber, pharmaceuticals and more are still expected in the next few weeks.
Trading partners have threatened further retaliation, with Europe reportedly mulling significant restrictions on America's high-margin services exports, including targeting U.S. tech giants. Will the U.S. and other countries reach deals to step back, or will the trade war escalate?
Separately, Trump warned Sunday that he could impose "secondary tariffs" on Russian oil, expressing frustration with Russia President Vladimir Putin regarding a Ukraine peace deal.
Tesla Deliveries Due Amid Brand 'Destruction'; BYD Earnings Charge Higher
Tesla Deliveries
Tesla deliveries for the first quarter should be released on Wednesday, April 2. The EV giant also will post Q1 production figures as well as energy storage deployed.
Tesla is expected to deliver 412,000 EVs in Q1, according to the official FactSet consensus, up from 386,810 a year earlier. But the more-recent estimates peg Tesla deliveries in the 355,000-380,000 range. A company-compiled delivery consensus is at 377,592. That would be the lowest since Q3 2022.
Tesla stock jumped 6% to 263.55 last week, snapping a nine-week losing streak. But shares came well off weekly highs of 291.85, rejected at the 200-day line. TSLA stock is down 34.7% so far in 2025, one of the S&P 500's biggest losers.
Tesla fell solidly early Monday.
Separately, Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted Friday evening that his AI firm xAI has bought his social site X in a stock deal valuing the latter at $33 billion.
Meanwhile, Tesla EV rivals XPeng, Li Auto, Nio, Zeekr and Xiaomi will report Q1 deliveries on Tuesday. EV and battery giant BYD will release Q1 sales on Tuesday or Wednesday.
BYD stock rose modestly last week, near record highs. Most China EV peers fell, with XPEV stock, Zeekr and especially Nio suffering sharp losses.
Average True Range: Avoid Excessive Swings In Growth Stocks
Stock Market
The stock market rallied Monday on Trump tariff hopes but turned bearish later in the week on actual Trump tariff news, as well as hot inflation readings. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 reclaimed their 200-day moving averages on Monday but finished the week below that key long-term level.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 1% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index skidded 1.5%. The Nasdaq composite slumped 2.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 stepped down 1.6%.
A stock market rally attempt isn't over until the major indexes undercut their recent lows, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are getting close.
Palantir stock, still closely watched by growth investors, jumped 6.4% on Monday but lost 5.6% for the week. Rubrik stock popped 7.7% on Monday and kept rising Tuesday, but still plunged 6.7% by Friday's close. There were many other similar examples.
Nvidia stock moved above its 21-day line on Monday — but definitely not actionable — but fell 6.8% for the week.
Defensive and defensive growth names are doing relatively well, but few made much progress while many lost ground.
The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.25% after tumbling nearly 12 basis points on Friday.
U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.6% to $69.36 a barrel last week.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF sank 2.2% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF shed 3.5%, with Palantir stock a big component and Rubrik also in the ETF. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF plunged 5.6%, with Nvidia stock the top holding.
Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF tumbled 5.4%% last week and ARK Genomics ETF dived 7.6% to the lowest since mid-2017. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest's ETFs. Cathie Wood's ARK also owns a small stake in BYD stock.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF fell 1.3% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF dipped 0.1% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 1.4%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund gave up 1.6%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF dipped 0.6%.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
What To Do Now
At the start of the week, the market looked poised to make a run, with the S&P 500 above its 200-day line and a number of traditional growth stocks flashing entries. But as the market faded, most of those have fizzled or failed. Even many defensive growth names are, at best, holding their ground.
With the major indexes below their 200-day moving averages, it's best to be all or nearly entirely in cash. The next round of Trump tariffs offers another reason to wait in the very short run.
However, if the market revives, even on what you think is "bad news," you need to be ready. Look for stocks with strong relative strength, holding key levels.
But right now it's a time to be window shopping, not shopping.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
View More Trump Tariffs And International Trade News
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
