Dow Jones futures rose modestly early Friday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, amid some big swings in futures, yields and the dollar. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo are reporting before the open along with the March PPI inflation report and April inflation expectations.
The stock market sold off sharply Thursday, giving up more than half of Wednesday's historic gains on the Trump tariff pause. Meanwhile, long-term Treasury yields continued to rise while the U.S. dollar plunged, underscoring ongoing market stress as President Donald Trump tries to reorder the global economy.
Tesla, Meta Platforms and Nvidia gave up big chunks of Wednesday's massive gains.
Palantir Technologies, DoorDash, Netflix, Spotify and CrowdStrike fell back solidly from near key resistance after Wednesday's big gains. All are working on double-bottom bases.
DoorDash, Spotify and Netflix stock are all on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist. DoorDash stock is on the IBD 50. Netflix and Palantir stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures rose 0.15% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.2%. Futures sold off hard Thursday evening, with Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 2% at one point. They reversed solidly higher by the morning and are now swinging up and down.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, moving higher again after reaching 4.48% overnight. Early Wednesday, the yield briefly topped 4.5%, and the 30-year yield exceeded 5%, which spurred President Trump to react to "yippy" markets and roll back some tariffs Wednesday.
The dollar fell solidly Friday morning, continuing its rapid descent over the past several days.
Rising yields and a falling currency amid recession risks is something more common with emerging markets, not the world's traditional safe haven and reserve currency.
Gold continues to soar.
The March PPI inflation report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The March CPI inflation report was surprisingly tame, partly due to tumbling airfares and hotel rates as Trump tariffs hit travel demand. Friday's focus may be on the University Of Michigan consumer sentiment index at 10 a.m. ET. Sentiment is expected to fall further in April while closely watched inflation expectations move even higher.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Trump Tariffs
While President Trump scaled back his plans temporarily Wednesday, the 10% baseline levy, sector tariffs and 145% duty on Chinese goods means U.S. tariffs are very high by historical standards. So there will be higher prices and significant other economic impacts. The 90-day pause will likely keep business investment and deals frozen, with management unclear if tariffs will end up higher or lower generally or in specific countries or sectors.
Thursday night, Trump threatened new tariffs on Mexico, accusing the country of violating a 1944 water treaty with the U.S.
President Trump, speaking during a Cabinet meeting, said he would "love" to get a deal with China. He acknowledged that there will be "transition problems" with his tariff plan, "but in the end it's going to be a beautiful thing."
China hiked tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84% on Friday.
Bank Earnings
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon all reported early Friday.
JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon beat views, while Wells Fargo and Blackrock were mixed.
JPMorgan stock, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock climbed slightly before the open. Bank of New York turned lower.
While the stocks aren't doing that badly given the overall market, the bank earnings focus will be on commentary about consumer and business lending and the overall economy.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, in the earnings release cited "considerable turbulence" in the economy. President Trump cited Dimon's TV comments Wednesday morning that a recession was very likely as a reason for his 90-day rollback on higher tariff rates.
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Stock Market
The stock market tumbled Thursday, giving up a big portion of Wednesday's huge gains, though closing off lows.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 2.5% in Thursday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index slumped 3.5%. The Nasdaq composite lost 4.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 sold off 4.3%.
Wednesday marked day four of a stock market rally attempt, which will remain valid unless the major indexes undercut Monday's intraday lows. A follow-through day could come at any point to confirm the new uptrend. The risk of failure would be extremely high.
U.S. crude oil prices fell 3.7% to $60.07 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 4.39%, though it rose from Wednesday evening's lows. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed six basis points to 4.85%, despite a second straight strong debt auction. The 30-year yield is up 46 basis points in the last four days, the biggest such gain since March 2020.
The 10-year yield topped 4.5% and the 30-year yield 5% early Wednesday.
The WSJ Dollar Index fell 1.5%, the biggest one-day drop since November 2022. That extends a choppy, sharp decline since Trump first announced the so-called reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF fell 1.6%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF sank 3.35%, with Palantir stock and CrowdStrike key holdings. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF plunged 6.9%. Nvidia stock is the No. 1 SMH component.
ARK Innovation ETF and ARK Genomics ETF both lost 5.8%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across ARK Invest's ETFs, with Cathie Wood also owning a lot of Palantir.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF retreated 3.2%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF slumped 6.5% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 2.8%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund gave up 2.6%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF dropped 2.8%. JPMorgan and Wells Fargo stock are major XLF holdings. BlackRock and Bank of New York Mellon also are in the ETF.
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Tesla Stock Tumbles, Cheaper Cybertruck Unveiled
Tesla stock lost 7.3% on Thursday, shedding about one-third of Wednesday's massive gains.
Late Thursday, Tesla unveiled a new Long Range variant of the Cybertruck, for $69,990. It's $10,000 cheaper than the prior base variant, the All-Wheel Drive Cybertruck. It has slightly longer range but slower acceleration, less towing capacity as well as a downgraded suspension system and other features.
Tesla Cybertruck sales have slumped in the past two quarters, despite lower prices in Q4 and becoming eligible for the $7,500 tax credit early tis year.
Nvidia Stock, Meta
Nvidia gave up 5.9%, also taking back about a third of Wednesday's big rebound
The Trump administration reportedly has backed off plans to block sales of Nvidia H20 graphics chips to China. The H20 is less advanced than the newer Blackwell chips, but it's the most capable AI chip that Nvidia is allowed to sell in China.
Meta sank 6.8%, less than half of Wednesday's advance, but back below the 200-day moving average.
Tech Leaders Hit Resistance
Palantir, DoorDash, Netflix, Spotify and CrowdStrike stock are all trying to build the right side of double-bottom bases, but fell back from near their 50-day lines Thursday.
Palantir stock gave up 3.7%, backing off the 50-day line but holding the bulk of Wednesday's 19% spike. DoorDash stock sank 5.3% after Wednesday's 13.8% leap.
Netflix stock declined just 2.6% after Wednesday's 8.6% gain. The streaming giant's earnings are due next week.
Spotify stock sank 2.8% after Wednesday's 9.8% rally.
CrowdStrike stock fell only 2.5% following a 16.3% surge in the prior session.
What To Do Now
The past couple of sessions shows that one good day, even a great day, does not mean the market has sustained momentum. That's especially true in the current market, which is prone to huge daily and intraday moves, with massive reversals on news a constant risk.
Thursday's losses weren't abnormal following the prior day's huge moves, but anyone buying near Wednesday's close could easily be down 5% or 10% on a stock.
Still, the market rally attempt remains valid, so investors still need to be ready for a follow-through day, despite the risks of a failed FTD.
Definitely get your watchlists ready. A few stocks are potentially setting up like Palantir, Life Time Group, Kratos, ADMA Biologics, Stride and ICICI Bank, but most charts look terrible. Focus on relative strength.
Stay engaged, but be patient.
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