Dow Jones fell overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Visa, Booking Holdings and Stride reported Tuesday night. Super Micro Computer dived on weak preliminary figures, hitting Nvidia and some other AI plays.
Meta Platforms and Microsoft are due Wednesday.
The stock market rally rose Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moving toward a key resistance level. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Tuesday afternoon that a big trade deal is close to being announced, while also confirming auto tariffs will be eased.
Charles Schwab, Boston Scientific and Guidewire Software are in buy areas. Tesla has come up to a key resistance level with its Q1 results in the rearview mirror.
Stride stock is on the IBD 50. Boston Scientific stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20 list. Microsoft stock is in the IBD Long-Term Leaders list. Charles Schwab is Tuesday's IBD Stock Of The Day.
The video embedded in the article discusses Tuesday's market action and analyzes the Schwab stock, Guidewire and Brinker International.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures lost 0.25% vs. fair value, with Visa stock a blue chip. S&P 500 futures gave up 0.5%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.6%. Super Micro and Nvidia stock weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
Early Wednesday, investors will get first-quarter GDP data and the March PCE inflation report.
Overnight, the China manufacturing index fell 1.5 points in April to 49, below the break-even 50 level and estimates for 49.7. The non-manufacturing index edged down 0.4 point to 50.4 vs. views for 50.6.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Trump Tariffs: Trade Deal 'Done'?
Commerce Secretary Lutnick told CNBC on Wednesday afternoon that "I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly."
Lutnick didn't name the country, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early Wednesday that a deal with India was close. India has relatively high tariffs, so has more to negotiate.
Other trading partners with low average tariffs might be trickier negotiations. U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer reportedly told GOP senators that Europe "is not engaging as well."
President Donald Trump eased auto tariffs Tuesday night, as expected.
Meanwhile, Trump said in an ABC News interview that he expects China to "eat" high U.S. tariffs, lessening the impact on American consumers. He said China had been "ripping us off" but the new tariffs will end "job thefts." The defiant statements followed more-conciliatory statements from Trump and Bessent last week about reducing trade tensions. Trump added that he'll make a "fair deal" with China.
U.S. ports this week are facing a huge drop-off in container traffic as a result of the Trump tariffs, especially on China. That will ripple through the economy in the coming weeks.
Trump, in a Tuesday night event to mark his 100th day in office, also said Fed chief Jerome Powell is not doing a "good job."
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Earnings
Visa stock edged higher overnight after the Dow Jones giant beat views and announced a $30 billion buyback. Shares advanced 1.2% on Tuesday to 341.52, moving above the 50-day line. Visa stock has a 351.86 double-bottom buy point, though investors could use a decisive move above the 50-day as an early entry.
Booking stock fell modestly in extended trade. Earnings topped views, but agency bookings missed and the travel site warned of "uncertainty." Shares edged up Tuesday after reclaiming the 50-day line last week. BKNG stock has a 5,282 double-bottom buy point.
Stride stock rose modestly in overnight action after the online education stock beat Q1 views. Shares climbed 1.2% to 142.59 on Tuesday. LRN stock has a 145 consolidation buy point, according to MarketSurge, briefly touching that entry last week.
AI server maker and Nvidia partner Super Micro released preliminary Q3 earnings and sales that were far below views, blaming delayed customer platform decisions. SMCI stock plunged more than 10% Tuesday night. Nvidia stock fell modestly, while Dell Technologies and AI data center IPO CoreWeave declined solidly.
Meta and Microsoft report Wednesday night. Both stocks have work to do. But the earnings reports and guidance will be closely watched. Meta on Tuesday launched a stand-alone AI app, challenging ChatGPT.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally saw modest gains Tuesday. The major indexes picked up momentum somewhat as Lutnick said a trade deal was "done."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.75% in Tuesday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.55%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.6%.
After a powerful bounce, the major indexes are moving toward their 50-day moving averages. That could be a big test. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed above their 10-week lines.
The indexes are starting to live above their 21-day lines.
U.S. crude oil prices fell 2.6% to $60.42 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.17%, extending a recent slide. Yields fell Tuesday amid weak job openings and consumer confidence data.
Q1 GDP data is expected to show little growth, or even a slight decline, though much of that reflects a beat-the-tariffs import surge. March PCE inflation should be tame, as weak travel demand hits airfares.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF rose 0.4%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF climbed 1.3%. Microsoft is a major IGV holding, with GWRE stock also in IGV. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF dipped 0.2%, with NVDA stock the dominate holding.
ARK Innovation ETF gained 0.6% and ARK Genomics ETF declined 0.3%. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across Ark Invest's ETFs.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF lost a fraction. The Energy Select SPDR ETF fell 0.3% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund rose 0.5%, with Boston Scientific stock a notable holding.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund was up 0.65%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF gained 1%. Visa stock is a key holding.
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Stocks Near Buy Points
Schwab stock rose 1.35% on Tuesday to 81.26, eking above a 81.24 double-bottom buy point. Q1 earnings jumped 41% vs. a year earlier with analysts expecting 31% EPS growth in 2025.
Boston Scientific stock edged up 0.55% on Tuesday to 102.74, working toward a 104.35 double-bottom buy point. BSX stock has now cleared a trendline early entry. Boston Sci earnings rose 34% in Q1, a third-straight quarter of accelerating growth.
Guidewire stock gained 2.7% to 204.95 on Tuesday, breaking out past a 201 double-bottom buy point. EPS in the July-ended 2025 is seen jumping 51%.
Tesla stock rose 2.15% to 292.03, just above the 200-day line and late March short-term highs. Shares surged last week, moving back above the 50-day line, as investors looked past grim earnings and focused on Elon Musk's bullish talk on robotaxis. Tesla could be effectively exempt from Trump auto tariffs under revised rules.
A clear move above the 200-day line, which would also break a sharp downtrend, would offer an aggressive entry for TSLA stock. But there would still be a lot of overhead resistance.
What To Do Now
The stock market rally has been acting well, giving investors an opportunity to add exposure gradually over the past week.
Clearing the 50-day line would be a big step for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Until then, traders probably shouldn't be heavily invested. but only moderately so.
Trump tariff news and huge earnings have the potential to trigger a more-powerful rally, a renewed sell-off or choppy, even whipsaw action.
Super Micro's weak preliminary results, with ripple effects to rivals, partners and more, show why investors have to be aware of how upcoming earnings can effect their portfolios.
Keep working on watchlists.
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