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ED CARSON

Dow Jones Futures Rise, Fed Inflation Gauge Due After Nasdaq, Nvidia Break Key Levels

Dow Jones futures rose slightly early Friday along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, while Bitcoin plunged. SoundHound AI and Rocket Lab headlined earnings after the close. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, is due early Friday.

The stock market had another rough session Thursday, as Nvidia broke key support following earnings while President Donald Trump issued new tariff plans. The Nasdaq plunged to a 2025 low. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell back from 50-day line resistance once again.

Palantir Technologies fell solidly to undercut its 50-day line, as many growth leaders fight to hold that key level.

The video embedded in the article reviews Thursday's stock market action and analyzes Nutanix, Urban Outfitters and 3M.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures rose 0.45% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.1%.

The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.26%.

Crude oil futures fell more than 1%.

Bitcoin tumbled to below $81,000, extending a huge sell-off, though off overnight lows.

The Commerce Department will release the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, at 8:30 a.m. ET, as part of the January income and spending report.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze leading stocks and the market on IBD Live

Key Earnings

SoundHound, Dell Technologies, Rocket Lab, DuolingoNetApp

SoundHound stock rose modestly early Friday on strong results and guidance, after initially surging more than 10% overnight. The AI play has plunged in the past two months.

On the downside, Rocket Lab stock and NetApp plunged on results. Duolingo stock fell sharply after dropping below a buy point in Thursday's session. Dell stock fell solidly, already below its 200-day line.

Stock Market Sells Off

The stock market had another damaging day with Nvidia stock and Trump tariff news as headwinds.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 0.45% in Thursday's stock market trading, after briefly rising above its 50-day. The S&P 500 index tumbled 1.6%, down to a six-week low after again hitting resistance at the 50-day line. The Nasdaq composite plunged 2.8%, decisively undercutting its Jan. 13 low to hit its worst levels in three months. The Nasdaq is not far from the 200-day moving average and round-tripping all of its postelection gains.

The small-cap Russell 2000 skidded 1.6%, setting a fresh five-month low.

A variety of insurers, banking giants and payment stocks are looking resilient, along with some industrials and retail plays and a smattering of medicals. But growth, especially highly valued growth, is still under heavy pressure.

U.S. crude oil prices rose 2.5% to $70.35 a barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose four basis points to 4.28%, ending a six-session slide.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF gave up 2.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF slumped 2.65%, with Palantir a notable holding and Nutanix stock also in the ETF. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF dived 6.2%. Nvidia stock is the largest holding in SMH.

ARK Innovation ETF tumbled 3.3%. Palantir stock is a major holding across Ark Invest's ETFs.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF fell 1.1%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 0.4%.

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund dipped 0.35%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF gained 0.55%.

Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy

Nvidia Stock

Early Friday, shares fell more than 1%.

Nvidia stock peeked above the 50-day line at Thursday's open, but reversed sharply lower, diving 8.5% to 120.15, knifing below the 200-day line. Late Wednesday, Nvidia earnings and revenue modestly beat Q4 views. The AI leader also guided slightly higher on Q1 revenue. But it wasn't enough.

NVDA stock crashed Jan. 26 on the DeepSeek sell-off in AI hardware stocks, and it hasn't recovered. Shares technically have an ugly double-bottom base with a 148.97 buy point. More broadly, Nvidia stock has been going sideways for eight months.

Institutional investors may have used the post-earnings liquidity to pare Nvidia stock holdings, as they did after Q3 earnings.

The market's lack of enthusiasm for Nvidia results hit a number of AI hardware plays, including Broadcom and Arista Networks but also various energy plays.

Palantir Stock Buckles

Palantir stock is among many growth stocks trying and struggling to hold support at the 50-day line.

PLTR stock reversed lower, skidding 5.1% to 84.77, below the 50-day line and back to to the top of a short consolidation, according to MarketSurge. Palantir stock has essentially round-tripped a powerful earnings run to start February.

Shares fell modestly early Friday.

What To Do Now

The stock market is struggling, especially growth names. Many may take weeks or months to repair. It's just not a good environment.

Investors could be playing some defensive or defensive growth names, perhaps with small positions. But even many of those wilted Thursday afternoon.

Perhaps Friday's Fed inflation gauge will buoy stocks. But the core PCE price index. could end up being a fresh catalyst for selling, much like Nvidia earnings. In any case, don't get excited by a strong open or even one solid day.

Being mostly or all in cash, working on watchlists is the best strategy right now.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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