Dow Jones futures edged higher early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, heading into a big week for software earnings and economic data.
The stock market rally continued to act well in a holiday-shortened week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all hitting record highs to close out their best months of 2024.
Nvidia had a down week, but rebounded back toward its buy point Friday. Fellow tech titan Meta Platforms and Apple flirted with entries on Friday as well.
Tesla fell last week but is consolidating near highs. Shares rose modestly in premarket action as the EV giant got a big price target hike and began rolling out Full Self Driving version 13.
China EV makers reported November deliveries on Sunday. Tesla EV rival BYD, XPeng and Zeekr set new record sales, while Li Auto and Nio deliveries fell slightly vs. October.
It's another busy week for software earnings, headlined by Dow giant Salesforce.com. Credo Technology Group, Docusign, nCino, Guidewire, Samsara and Veeva Systems are notable reports, as well as cybersecurity plays SentinelOne, Okta, Zscaler and Rubrik.
Nvidia and Meta stock are on IBD Leaderboard, with Tesla on the Leaderboard watch list. Nvidia stock is on SwingTrader. Samsara stock and Nvidia are on the IBD 50. Meta was Friday's IBD Stock Of The Day.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures were just above fair value. S&P 500 futures tilted higher and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher to 4.21%. Crude oil futures climbed 1%.
Bitcoin fell back to nearly $95,000.
At 10 a.m. ET, investors will get the ISM manufacturing index for November, which is expected to show continued contraction. A slew of labor market data is due this week, capped by Friday's jobs report.
The Caixin China manufacturing index rose 1.2 points in November to 51.5, a five-month high and above views for 50.6. Readings above 50 signal expansion. The official China manufacturing gauge edged up 0.2 point to 50.3 vs. views for 50.2.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally had a strong week and stellar month.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite climbed 1.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 1.2%
For November, the Dow Jones surged 7.5% and the S&P 500 5.7%, their best monthly percentage gains in a year. The Nasdaq jumped 6.2%. The Russell 2000 spiked 10.8%, its best monthly gain since December 2023.
The Nasdaq is the only one that did not set new highs during the week, but it's close.
The 10-year Treasury yield tumbled 22 basis points for the week to 4.19% as bond traders grow more confident that President-elect Donald Trump will show overall fiscal restraint, with Elon Musk heading up efforts to improve government efficiency.
U.S. crude oil futures tumbled 4.55% to $68 a barrel last week.
Trump And Musk Race To Slash Government And Save The S&P 500
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF rallied 3.3% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell 1.2%. Salesforce stock is the largest holding in IGV, which also holds stakes in Docusign, nCino, Samsara, Zscaler, Guidewire and SentinelOne. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF declined 1%. Nvidia stock is the dominant SMH holding.
ARK Innovation ETF rose 3% last week and ARK Genomics ETF jumped 9.4%. Tesla stock remains a big holding across Ark Invest's ETFs. Ark's Cathie Wood also has built up a big position in Nvidia stock and has a small stake in BYD.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF edged up 0.1% last week. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF climbed 2.5%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF gave up 1.9% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund bounced 2.2%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund advanced 1.1%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF rose 1.2%.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
Nvidia, Meta, Apple Near Buy Points
Nvidia stock fell as low as 131.80 during the past week, skidding below the 21-day moving average and the 140.76 buy point. But shares avoided closing below the 50-day line and made further gains on Friday, ending the week down 2.6% to 138.25.
Shares were little changed early Monday.
Nvidia's growth remains strong. After a five-month pause, perhaps a final NVDA shakeout will turn into another advance. But that hasn't happened yet.
Meta stock rose 2.7% for the week to 574.32, briefly retaking the 50-day line on Friday. A move above Friday's intraday high of 578.46 would offer an early entry. Shares have a 602.95 flat-base traditional buy point. Shares edged higher early Monday, testing the 50-day line again.
Apple stock advanced 3.25% last week to 237.33. On Friday, shares briefly peeked above a 237.49 buy point from a flat base right next to another base. AAPL stock was testing the buy point early Monday.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock fell 2.1% to 345.16 last week, but popped 3.7% on Friday. Shares have been consolidating around two-year highs for the past couple of weeks.
Shares rose modestly early Monday. Over the weekend, Tesla started rolling out FSD v13 to employees and limited outside customers. The EV giant has hyped-up expectations by predicting FSD v13 will show a six times improvement in terms of miles per driver intervention.
Right now, FSD v13 appears to be a limited version, but has the ability to unpark, reverse, and park.
Also Monday, Stifel hiked its price target to 411 from 287, essentially all on a "clearer path" for the Cybercab and FSD. It kept EBITDA targets essentially flat for 2024-2025 and lowered them for 2026.
Elon Musk has said that he expects FSD to achieve true self-driving by mid-2025, though he's said similar "this year" or "next year" statements for about a decade.
As the new FSD rolls out, take the anecdotal reports of its success or failings with a lot of salt.
TSLA stock has surged in recent weeks in part on hopes that self-driving is coming soon, with the Trump administration easing the regulatory path.
In other news, Tesla continues to ramp up incentives, especially in the U.S., as it tries to push 2024 deliveries about last year's levels.
Tesla recently announced a year-end discount on local Model Y sales.
Tesla Rolling Out FSD v13; BYD Eyes BEV Crown
What To Do Now
The stock market had an amazing November, with Donald Trump's election fueling big gains, especially in many leaders. That's extended a strong bull market starting from October 2022.
Stocks can keep rising, but don't assume the past month is the new normal.
If you're heavily invested in good stocks that are acting well, you don't have to take a lot of action. Planting season is largely over. Continue to weed your portfolio of losers and laggards, while making incremental add-on or new buys.
Keep working on your watchlists and stay engaged.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
