Dow Jones futures fell slightly early Monday while S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq futures rose modestly, buoyed by Tesla. Nvidia earnings loom large.
The stock market Trump trade faltered last week. The major indexes fell sharply, especially on Friday, testing or undercutting some key levels. A number of leading stocks suffered sharp losses or downside reversals, often around earnings.
Investors should be wary of new buys in the short run, while cutting losers and recent winners that are round-tripping gains.
Tesla Rises As Team Trump Eyes Self-Driving Rules
President-elect Donald Trump's transition team reportedly wants a federal framework for self-driving vehicles, something Tesla CEO Elon Musk has argued for. But regulation isn't the current hurdle for Tesla robotaxis, which face no restrictions in states such in Texas and Florida. But Tesla stock jumped Monday morning as investors see this as a another big win for Tesla, or at least TSLA.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures were little changed while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.48%, approaching Friday's five-month intraday highs. Crude oil futures edged higher.
Bitcoin rose above $90,000, but off overnight highs.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
The Newest S&P 500 Stock Is Leaving Nvidia In The Dust
Nvidia Earnings, Other Key Results
It's hard to overstate Nvidia's stock market importance. While a Trump bump lifted stocks in early November, artificial intelligence has led the stock market over the past two years. Nvidia earnings — and Blackwell-tied guidance — obviously will be key for AI and chip plays such as Taiwan Semiconductor and Broadcom, as well as the broader market.
Nvidia stock fell early Monday, perhaps on Blackwell server rack overheating concerns.
Palo Alto Networks is a key report for cybersecurity and software. Walmart and TJX Cos. headline earnings reports.
Super Micro Delisting Deadline
Meanwhile, Nvidia partner Super Micro Computer spiked 9% Monday morning following a late Friday Barron's report that it aims to submit a plan by Monday to allow it to remain on the Nasdaq. The AI server maker faces a Monday deadline to file a plan with the Nasdaq to regain compliance with its financial reporting requirements. If not, SMCI stock faces delisting. Super Micro stock has plunged 84.9% from its March high of 122.90, mostly on mounting accounting concerns.
Nvidia and Palo Alto stock are still in buy zones, while TJX is just below a traditional buy point after clearing some early entries. Walmart stock is near highs but extended.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally suffered sharp losses in the latest week, especially on Friday.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.2% in last week's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index slumped 2.1%. The Nasdaq composite lost 3.15%. The small-cap Russell 2000 tumbled 4%.
The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have undercut the lows of the Nov. 6 postelection gap-up day. The Nasdaq fell below its 21-day moving average. The S&P 500 finished just below that key short-term level while the Russell 2000 just held that level.
The Nasdaq and Russell are back to the top of their July-October consolidations, while the S&P 500 is back at the top of a shelf just above a larger consolidation.
The key indexes are around natural areas of support. Holding and rebounding from these levels would signal the bullish trend will continue. But breaking lower from here, and moving toward the 50-day line, would be highly negative.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 12 basis points to 4.43%, though it closed flat Friday after hitting a five-month high intraday of just over 4.5%. The two-year yield, more closely aligned with the Fed rate policy outlook, climbed 4.5 basis points to 4.3%. Fed chief Jerome Powell on Thursday signaled that the Fed is in "no hurry," but markets still see a modest rate cut on Dec. 18 as slightly likely.
U.S. crude oil futures tumbled 4.8% to $67.02 a barrel last week.
Trump Trade Losers
Not only did the Trump trade wane broadly, but more Trump losers came into focus.
Drugmakers and biotechs plunged as Donald Trump nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a noted vaccine skeptic and pharmaceutical industry critic, to run Health and Human Services.
Government tech consultants, including Parsons, Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos Holdings and Science Applications suffered huge losses late in the week on concerns that they'll be easy political targets in an Elon Musk-led government efficiency drive.
Those join housing and China stocks. Homebuilders, construction plays and related stocks are slumping as Treasury yields rise, in part on expectations of Trump policies. China stocks have been struggling on fears that new Trump tariffs will slam a struggling Chinese economy.
Tesla Soars On Trump Victory; Rival Set To Grab BEV Crown
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF dipped 0.1%, with Palo Alto stock a notable holding.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF dived 7.5%. Nvidia stock is the dominant SMH holding, with Broadcom and Taiwan Semi stock major members.
ARK Innovation ETF gave up 1.15% last week and ARK Genomics ETF plunged 12.6%.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF skidded 6.1% last week. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF retreated 2.6%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF advanced 1% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund sold off 5.55%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund retreated 2.1%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF rose 1.4%.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
Nvidia Earnings
Nvidia earnings are due late Wednesday. Analysts expect earnings to jump 87.5% to 75 cents a share while revenue runs 83% higher to $33.09 billion. That would end a five-quarter string of triple-digit growth for the AI chip giant. Whisper numbers are even higher.
The focus, however, will be on guidance and the ramp-up of Blackwell production. The next-generation AI processor is expected to begin shipments in the current quarter, but how quickly that occurs will be key.
Nvidia stock fell 3.8% to 141.98 last week, with nearly all of that coming on Friday. Shares tested but ultimately held the 140.76 consolidation buy point and the 21-day moving average.
However, shares fell nearly 3% early Monday, signaling clear moves below those key levels.
The new Blackwell GPUs overheat when used in older server racks, The Information reported Sunday. Nvidia reportedly has urged customers for some time to use different racks to avoid the problem.
Nvidia stock is on IBD Leaderboard, SwingTrader and the IBD 50.
Nvidia earnings and guidance will be key for the entire market rally, notably AI plays and especially AI chipmakers.
Broadcom stock plunged 10.2% last week, falling from near a buy point to decisively below its 10-week line.
Nvidia chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor tumbled 7.5%. TSM stock closed just above its 50-day and slightly below its 10-week.
Astera Labs sold off 12.9% for the week, but that's after spiking nearly 37% in the prior week in the Trump bump and on its own earnings. ALAB stock rose modestly early Monday as Citigroup initiated coverage with a buy rating and 120 price target.
Meanwhile, non-AI chip plays have struggled for weeks or months.
AI Plays Lead 5 Stocks Near Buy Points As Trump Rally Wavers
What To Do Now
The stock market rally, which looked so strong just a few days ago, is facing a key test. The major indexes and leading stocks could quickly rebound, but right at this moment investors have to acknowledge the potential character change.
This is not a good time to be buying stocks. Several stocks that flashed buy signals this past week faltered by Friday's close. Few stocks are in buy zones and not many more are setting up after the huge Trump gains followed by sizable losses.
Investors may want to reduce exposure, especially if they are on margin. As a practical matter, eschewing new buys and paring losers and round-trip stocks will whittle down your overall portfolio. You can also choose to take some partial profits or exit successful positions. It depends on your investing style, your conviction in various holdings and the size of your stakes.
Keep working on watchlists. A pullback should create numerous buying opportunities. And working through screens will keep you in touch with which sectors are leading and coming to the fore.
Have your exit strategies ready, even for stocks that are holding strong or advancing. If the market continues to worsen, eventually the strongest names will crack.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
