Dow Jones futures rose modestly Tuesday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla moved up new Model Y deliveries even as FSD may face new delays.
The stock market rally heads into a shortened week with the S&P 500 just below all-time highs. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones aren't far behind. Several growth ETFs are hitting 52-week or record levels. Small caps continue to struggle.
AI giants Broadcom and Amazon.com are near buy points. Axon Enterprise, which has its own AI efforts, flashed an early entry Friday.
Nvidia has reclaimed a key level, recovering from the DeepSeek sell-off on Jan. 27, forging an ugly consolidation.
Axon Enterprise is on IBD Leaderboard and SwingTrader. Broadcom is on the IBD 50. Both are on the IBD Big Cap 20.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures were 0.1% above fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%. Futures suggest the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will open right at record highs, with the Nasdaq composite just below all-time levels.
The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.52%.
Crude oil turned higher after Russia denied reports that OPEC+ might delay a production increase starting in April.
U.S. stock and bond markets were closed in observance of Presidents Day on Monday.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
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Stock Market Rally
The stock market rally was looking weak at Wednesday's open but staged a bullish reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the week almost at record highs. Ultimately, markets viewed the week's inflation and other economic data as relatively tame. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, but they won't start until at least April.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.55% in last week's stock market trading, just over 1% below its early December peak. The S&P 500 index gained 1.5%, coming within one point of its all-time high at Friday's high. The Nasdaq composite jumped 2.6%, back above the 20,000 level and within 1% of all-time levels. The small-cap Russell 2000 closed essentially flat, once again hitting resistance at the 50-day line.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF rose 0.45% for the week, regaining the 50-day line but still some distance from its November peak.
The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF popped 2.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 leapt 2.9%, both hitting record highs. The FFTY and ARKK growth ETFs cited below are at or near their best levels since 2022.
So while overall breadth has been lackluster, growth stocks have shown broad gains. Software stocks and some tech titans are strong, but financials, various medicals, retailers and more have flashed buy signals.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell one basis point to 4.475% after surging to 4.66% intraday Wednesday. That retreat helped fuel stocks' rebound.
U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.4% to $70.74 a barrel last week.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF surged 6.9% last week, hitting its best levels since June 2022. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF gained 2%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF rallied 3.1%. Nvidia stock and Broadcom stock are among the largest positions in SMH.
ARK Innovation ETF leapt 6.8% last week to the highest point since April 2022. Tesla stock is the No. 1 holding across Ark Invest's ETFs.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF gained 1.2% last week, with the Energy Select SPDR ETF up 1.7%. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 1.1%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund edged up 0.15%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF lost a fraction. Berkshire stock is the largest holding in XLF.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
Tesla Model Y Deliveries
Tesla will now start new Model Y deliveries in China later this month, up from March. U.S. and European deliveries will still begin next month.
Tesla reportedly faces a possible delay in Chinese approval of Full Self-Driving, at a time when local rivals are rolling out driver-assist software more widely.
Shares edged higher Tuesday morning, with gains fading. Tesla stock hit a 2025 low intraday Wednesday, but pared weekly losses.
Stocks Near Buy Points
Axon Enterprise stock edged higher, signaling a possible breakout Tuesday.
Shares rose 0.6% to 683.41 last week, drifting lower until Friday's 2.8% gain in above average volume. Axon stock has a 689.54 buy point from a cup-with-handle base. On Friday, shares reversed higher from the 21-day line and broke the downtrend of the handle, offering an early entry. The maker of Taser weapons, Axon body cameras and digital storage is pushing into AI and drones. Axon earnings are due Feb. 25.
Broadcom stock lost a fraction early Tuesday. Shares rose 3.6% to 233.04 last week, extending a recovery from the Jan. 27 sell-off in AI hardware stocks in the DeepSeek freak-out. AVGO stock quickly regained its 50-day and 21-day lines, while many other AI hardware plays, including Nvidia, struggled to do so. Broadcom's chart is unsightly, but has been consolidating for the past several days. It has a handle with a 237.93 buy point. Broadcom earnings are due in early March, with Nvidia's results also relevant.
Broadcom reportedly is mulling deals for the chip design and marketing business of Intel.
Amazon stock tilted higher early Tuesday. Shares edged down 0.2% to 228.68 last week, but held the 50-day and 10-week lines. Shares have pulled back below a 233 flat-base buy point. A strong bounce above the 50-day line, retaking the buy point, would be actionable.
Nvidia Stock
Shares rose slightly early Tuesday.
Nvidia stock rallied 6.9% to 138.85 last week. Shares are back above the 50-day line for the first time since diving 17% on the Jan. 27 AI sell-off. Technically, NVDA stock now has a base, with a 153.13 buy point, on a weekly MarketSurge chart. There might be an early entry from a downward-sloping trendline.
But it is an ugly pattern, to put it mildly. Also, the Nvidia stock rebound has come on lighter volume after a heavy volume sell-off.
Nvidia earnings are due Feb. 26. Those results are still key for investors, especially for those playing in the AI space.
China Stocks Are Hot Again: These Five Are Near Buy Points
What To Do Now
The stock market rally is poised to break out of a choppy range, which could be the start of a substantial new run. But, it hasn't quite happened yet. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, though on the cusp of record highs, are less than 2% above their 50-day lines.
Growth stocks are acting well, however.
Investors could have been making incremental buys in the past couple of days. Be ready to keep doing so if the market and your positions act well. But if the market falls back, extending the sideways trend, you may need to step back.
The key is to be prepared, engaged and nimble. Do your homework, running screens to freshen up watchlists. Pay attention to the market action next week. Be ready to take action, whether it's buying, selling or both.
Earnings season is starting to wane, but plenty of notable stocks are still on tap this week.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
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