Dow Jones futures were little changed Monday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Nvidia, the Federal Reserve and several China stocks will be in focus this week.
Once again, the stock market suffered big weekly losses capped by a strong Friday. President Donald Trump implemented several new tariffs, with the European Union and others retaliating against Trump tariffs.
Rally attempts are underway, but it's still a stock market correction for now. Investors should be cautious, but also prepared.
Nvidia will hold its GTC event this week, an opportunity for Nvidia to revive optimism about its growth and an AI stock boom. It will be a big deal for Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor as well as power plays such as Vistra and even quantum computing stocks such as D-Wave Quantum.
Several China companies' earnings are on tap this week, including Tencent, PDD Holdings, Qifu Technology, XPeng and Xiaomi. A number of China stocks are in or near buy areas, while a few are greatly extended.
The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday-Wednesday. No changes are expected, though Fed chief Jerome Powell could drop some hints about possible rate cuts at future meetings.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures lost 0.3% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures declined 0.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.
The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.29%.
Crude oil futures rose more than 1%.
Chinese retail sales rose 4% in February vs. a year earlier, while industrial production climbed 5.9%, both beating views. January-February fixed asset investment grew 4.1%, also topping forecasts.
China will aim to bolster consumption by promoting "reasonable growth" in wages, stabilizing stock and housing markets, the official Xinhua News Agency reported Sunday, citing a statement from the powerful State Council. It'll also look at setting up a childcare subsidy as it seeks to boost the countries tumbling birth rate. Chinese stocks jumped Friday, continuing a recent run, in anticipation of a Monday press conference on bolstering stimulus.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Bessent Says Corrections 'Healthy'
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that he was "not at all" worried about the stock market, adding "corrections are healthy." But he also said there are "no guarantees" that the U.S. will avoid recession. But he said the White House is trying to head off what was a "guaranteed" financial crisis.
Bessent, a long-time Wall Street player, is trying to calm financial markets after a volatile sell-off in the past month as President Donald Trump implemented, threatened and delayed a wide variety of tariffs. A new wave of Trump tariffs loom in early April.
Bessent suggested that markets are going through a "detox period" from excessive government spending, though actual federal outlays haven't been cut.
President Trump said he doesn't plan on any exemptions on 25% steel and aluminum tariffs imposed worldwide last week. He added that auto and reciprocal tariffs will start April 2.
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Stock Market Fell Last Week
The stock market suffered its fourth straight big weekly loss, with the last three capped with a Friday bounce. Trump tariffs and related uncertainty are hitting investor and business confidence.
The Dow Jones Average tumbled 3.1% in last week's stock market trading, its worst decline in two years. The S&P 500 index slumped 2.3%. The Nasdaq composite tumbled 2.4%. All hit six-month lows during the week.
The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 1.5%, setting a seven-month low.
Friday marked day three of a market rally attempt for the Nasdaq, but just day one for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. The Nasdaq could stage a follow-through day as soon as Monday.
Chinese stocks are strong, along with gold and silver stocks. Insurers are holding up, with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway part of this trend. Exchange stocks also are resilient. Several biotechs and some industrials are doing well, along with a few traditional growth plays.
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped one basis point to 4.31%, bouncing back after initially tumbling.
U.S. crude oil futures edged up 0.2% to $67.18 a barrel last week.
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ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF rebounded 1.9% last week. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF sank 1.9%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF gained 0.7%, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor stock major holdings. ARK Innovation ETF tumbled 6.5%.
The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF dipped 0.6%, but finished strong. Alibaba is the No. 1 holding, followed by Tencent stock. PDD and Qifu are also in KWEB.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF popped 3% last week. The Energy Select SPDR ETF rallied 2.6% while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund declined 2.9%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund sank 2.3%. The Financial Select SPDR ETF dipped 1.2%.
Average True Range: Avoid Excessive Swings In Growth Stocks
Nvidia GTC: 'Premier AI Conference'
Nvidia will hold its GTC event on March 17-21. CEO Jensen Huang gives a keynote speech at GTC on Tuesday at 10 a.m. PT, discussing agentic AI, robotics and accelerated computing. Analysts expect Nvidia to unveil its GB300 AI chip.
The event is an opportunity for Nvidia and partners to show that artificial intelligence hardware prospects are bright, even as China startup DeepSeek, Alibaba and others tout much-cheaper AI models.
On Thursday, GTC will hold Quantum Day, focusing on quantum computing. QBTS stock skyrocketed last week on bullish guidance and other news from D-Wave Quantum.
Nvidia Stock, AI Stocks
Nvidia stock jumped 8% last week to 121.67, rebounding from a six-month low. Shares still are some distance below their 200-day and 50-day lines. NVDA stock has gone sideways since last June. Is the AI chip leader finally ready to begin a new leg higher, or will it be rangebound or grind lower?
Broadcom stock edged up 0.3% last week, rebounding from its 200-day. Taiwan Semiconductor stock fell 1.7%, trying to find a bottom. TSMC makes AI chips for Nvidia, Broadcom and many others.
These and other AI-chip makers, plus related stocks such as Vertiv and Vistra, could swing significantly on Nvidia GTC news.
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What To Do Now
Once again, the stock market finished on a high note, but this sharp sell-off has seen a number of one-day rallies.
Trump tariffs and other Trump headlines likely will continue to swing the market. Uncertainty seems likely through at least early April, when a slew of new Trump tariff deadlines hit.
The Nvidia GTC event may be a positive or negative catalyst for AI stocks and the broader market.
The Nasdaq could confirm its rally attempt this coming week. The risk of failure would be high, but you don't want to ignore positive market signals even if the "news" seems bearish.
Investors could be dabbling in a few strong sectors, such as gold or China stocks. But it's a time to be mostly or entirely in cash.
Work on watchlists, focusing on stocks showing relative strength.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
