Dow Jones futures were little changed early Wednesday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Key economic data before the open will give an early signal as to whether Trump tariffs and tariff uncertainty are affecting business investment.
The stock market rally attempt edged up Tuesday after Monday's big gains on Trump tariff news, led by megacaps such as Meta Platforms, Amazon.com and Tesla.
Tesla stock kept running Tuesday, clearing key resistance. Shares fell slightly in premarket trading after Canada halted EV subsidies for Tesla.
There's been no official follow-through day to confirm the new uptrend. Still, Monday's quasi-FTD and a number of stocks flashing buy signals have given investors an opportunity to add a little exposure.
CrowdStrike, Brinker International, Fiserv, SAP and Shopify are at or near buy points.
The video embedded in the article discusses Tuesday's market action and reviews CrowdStrike stock, SAP and Fiserv.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures edged higher vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures edged lower and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.1%.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.34%.
Crude oil futures climbed nearly 1%.
Copper futures rose more than 1%. President Trump could implement copper tariffs within weeks, Bloomberg reported Tuesday night. Copper has been rising strongly on tariff expectations.
Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn't necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.
Business Investment Is Trump Tariffs Test
Several surveys have shown that business and consumer sentiment has weakened dramatically as President Donald Trump embarks on major tariffs, but there hasn't been much evidence that this is spilling over to the real economy.
At 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday, the Commerce Department will release February durable goods orders. The core capital goods orders figure acts as a proxy for business investment. Are companies just a little nervous about Trump tariffs or are they putting a freeze on spending plans?
Be wary of reading too much into one month's data. The size and scope of Trump tariff plans were just taking shape in February, while durable goods are volatile from month to month.
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Stock Market
The stock market rally attempt wavered for most of Tuesday's session, but the major indexes closed higher, led by the Nasdaq.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.01% gain in Tuesday's stock market trading. The S&P 500 index rose 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite climbed 0.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.7%.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF declined 0.2%, reflecting softness outside the megacaps. RSP is back below the 200-day line.
The First Trust Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index ETF edged up 0.15%.
On Monday, stocks surged on reports that President Donald Trump will not be quite as sweeping with new tariffs on April 2 as thought. But volume fell vs. the heavy trading on Friday's triple-witching expiry. So it did not qualify as a follow-through day, though investors could have treated Friday as an FTD in spirit.
Even official FTDs do fail, and the risks would be high now due to the sharp market sell-off in recent weeks, along with the news-driven environment.
U.S. crude oil prices dipped 0.2% to $69 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points to 4.31% after hitting 4.36% early. The Consumer Confidence Index fell again in March, with the expectations gauge tumbling to a 12-year low.
ETFs
Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF dipped 0.25%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF rose 1% with CrowdStrike stock a notable holding. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF fell 0.4%.
The ARK Innovation ETF edged down 0.1% and ARK Genomics slumped 2.5%. Tesla stock is still the top position across ARK Invest's ETFs.
The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF climbed 0.7%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF advanced 0.4% while the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund slumped 1.3%.
The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund edged up 0.15%.
The Financial Select SPDR ETF climbed 0.6%, with Fiserv stock a holding.
Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock popped 3.45% to 287.99, a fifth straight gain after Monday's 11.9% surge and Friday's 5.3% jump. Shares moved just above the 200-day moving average, a key level. TSLA stock still faces a lot of overhead resistance.
Shares fell more than 1% before Wednesday's open, testing the 200-day line. Late Tuesday, Canada froze $43 million in suspicious EV rebates for Tesla. It also excluded the U.S. EV giant from future EV rebates due to Trump tariffs.
Tesla will report first-quarter deliveries in early April, likely on April 2.
What To Do Now
Investors could have and perhaps should have added a little exposure over the past couple of days, given Monday's FTD-like qualities. But it's not a time to be heavily invested.
The indexes and many growth stocks like Tesla have a lot of overhead resistance. Trump tariffs and Tesla delivery data are set to hit on April 2, with the following weeks packed with market-moving economic data and earnings reports.
But don't spend too much time worrying about what the market might do and focus on what the market is doing right now.
Stay engaged and remain flexible. Build up your watchlists, looking for stocks with strong relative strength.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
