As October approaches, it is easy to forget how much things changed this summer.
After June’s debate between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, a second Trump term appeared a formality.
Especially after the first assassination attempt against Trump (even if that did not move the race as much as some thought it might).
At the time, Ipsos US data showed Americans just as unfavourable towards Biden as Trump, with the latter not only leading the polls nationally but in the all-important battleground states too.
Things are very different now.
Vice President Kamala Harris has replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, and the race has shifted significantly in the Democrats’ favour.
Nationally, Ipsos data showed Harris two points ahead of Trump with registered voters in July and in September that advantage was five.
Meanwhile, polling aggregators have shown more positive indicators for Harris in key swing states, though it should be said that most remain on a knife-edge.
With Democrats more enthusiastic about Harris than they were Biden and Ipsos polling showing that Americans think Harris convincingly won her recent presidential debate with Trump, the momentum very much feels with the Harris campaign.
However, the race shifting significantly in the Democrats favour is not the same as it shifting decisively so. Things are still too close to call and a second Trump presidency remains a strong possibility.
A closer look at the issues explains why. Our polling shows the economy, unemployment and jobs to be the number one issue on US voters’ minds (26%) followed by political extremism / threats to American democracy (19%) and immigration (11%).
When asked who they trust more on these issues, Harris leads Trump on protecting American democracy (45% to 36%) and Trump leads Harris on dealing with immigration at the US-Mexico border (47% to 37%).
However, on the number one issue of the economy, it is Trump that is more trusted (46% to 39%).
Our data shows the economy has grown in significance as an election issue throughout the year so Trump’s advantage here matters.
Who will ultimately prevail? The unsatisfying answer is we just don’t know.
The arrival of Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee has clearly made the race competitive but in truth this contest will be decided by tens of thousands of votes in key battleground states.
The Harris campaign appears in the ascendancy today, as many Americans doubt Trump’s suitability for a second term.
However, whilst the economy remains the key issue on voters’ minds only a fool would rule out that second term coming to pass.
Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos
