Keir Starmer’s meeting with Donald Trump this week comes at a crucial moment for the war in Ukraine and the future of the Nato alliance. Europe is looking for leaders who can engage Trump on the future of the continent as the US leader appears more inclined to demand tribute from his allies and cosy up to Vladimir Putin. Sir Peter Westmacott, a former British ambassador the US, has called this one of the “most consequential meetings of a British prime minister and president that we have had since the second world war”.
Can the “special relationship” between the US and the UK save the day? Or has the era of transatlantic cooperation ended in the era of “America first”? Starmer has already established a friendly rapport with Trump and comes bearing promises to raise defense spending and negotiate on trade, but can that overcome Trump’s impulse to abandon Europe and strike a deal with Russia to end the war as quickly as possible?
Trump is notoriously mercurial. His decisions are said to be influenced by the last person with whom he spoke. On Thursday, that person will be Starmer, who comes to the White House on the heels of France’s Emmanuel Macron to try his best to argue Europe’s case to the new US president.
Here are six takeaways as Thursday’s meeting at the White House gets under way.
A charm offensive with an invitation from King Charles
Trump greeted Starmer amicably as the UK prime minister arrived at the White House, where the US president said that the two got along “famously” and called the US-UK relationship “tremendous”.
In an opening gambit, Starmer produced a letter from King Charles inviting Trump to visit the UK. “It’s an invitation for a second state visit. This is really special. This has never happened before. This is unprecedented,” Starmer said. Trump mused of Charles: “He’s a really great gentleman.”
In his opening remarks, Starmer thanked Trump for making peace possible in Ukraine in a sign that the prime minister will limit his criticism of Trump’s sharp diplomatic turn away from Europe and the previous administration’s support for Ukraine.
“Thank you for changing the conversation to bring about the possibility that now we can have a peace deal,” Starmer said. “And we want to work with you to make sure that peace deal is enduring, that it lasts, that it’s a deal that goes down to, historic deal that nobody reaches. And we’ll work with you to make sure that that absolutely happens.”
Did Starmer manage to shift Trump on Ukraine?
Trump’s remarks following the meeting indicated that his views may have shifted ever-so-slightly on Ukraine following the meeting with Starmer. He did not repeat his statement that Zelenskyy was a “dictator”, said that he respected the Ukrainian leader, and added that Ukrainians had “fought very bravely ... somebody has to use that equipment and they have been very brave”.
Trump also appeared to be shifting in his opening remarks when he said that his plan to sign a rare earth minerals deal with Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday is “really going to get us into that country”. He indicated that the presence of American workers in Ukraine would provide a security guarantee for Ukraine because “we’ll be working there”.
“We’ll have a lot of people working and so in that sense, it’s very good,” he said. “It’s a backstop. You could say, I don’t think anybody’s going to play around if we’re there with a lot of workers and having to do with rare earths and other things which we need for our country.”
That is not the kind of security guarantee that Ukrainian, French or British officials have envisioned as backing European peacekeepers in the country in the event that a ceasefire deal is reached. But it is the closest that Trump has come to saying that the US would engage in Ukraine’s security and provide a deterrent threat against Russia restarting the war if a ceasefire were signed.
Good signs for Starmer on tariffs and the Chagos Islands
There were positive signs for Starmer that Trump would not slap harsh tariffs on trade with the UK, as Trump praised his lobbying and said Starmer “earned whatever the hell they pay him over there”.
“I think there’s a very good chance that, in the case of these two great friendly countries, I think we could very well end up with a real trade deal where the tariffs wouldn’t be necessary,” Trump said. “We’ll see.”
Trump also offered Starmer an early win by saying that he would likely support a plan for the UK to cede control over the strategic Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean to Mauritius but then lease them back to maintain control over a strategic airbase used by the US and the UK.
The proposal to cede control over the archipelago had been mired in uncertainty after a general election led to a change of government in Mauritius and Starmer faced criticism at home for the deal to cede control over the series of atolls in the Indian Ocean that have been described as Britain’s last African colony. On the eve of the summit, David Lammy admitted that Trump had an effective veto over the deal, saying: “If President Trump doesn’t like the deal, the deal will not go forward.”
“We’re going to have some discussions about that very soon, and I have a feeling it’s going to work out very well,” said Trump. “They’re talking about a very long-term, powerful lease, a very strong lease, about 140 years. Actually, that’s a long time, and I think we’ll be inclined to go along with your country. We have to be given the details, but it doesn’t sound bad.”
Keir Starmer is appealing to Trump’s checkbook, not to his heart
The key pledge that Starmer has made en route to Washington is to raise defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2027, and then to 3% by 2035. He has called it the “biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the cold war”.
That firm commitment is seen as the enticement to convince Trump to provide a “backstop” to a European security guarantee to Ukraine that would restrain Russia from breaking a potential ceasefire. “The security guarantee has to be sufficient to deter Putin,” Starmer told reporters on his plane en route to Washington.
But in remarks at the British ambassador’s residence on Thursday, Starmer and his ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, also focused on the economic ties and opportunities for investment that exist between the UK and US. “We’re determined to help US innovators thrive in the United Kingdom so my message is we want to work with you, we want to welcome you to Britain, we want a new partnership because history shows that when we work together, great things happen,” Starmer said.
Ultimately, Starmer will need to convince Trump that support for Ukraine and Nato is a good deal, and he will argue his position as a win-win transaction rather than an obligation or duty to world security that previous leaders in the United States used to believe.
Starmer’s tightrope walk
Starmer followed Macron’s lead in his visit earlier this week by correcting Trump during his remarks to say that Europe had mainly gifted its financial support to Ukraine and had not given most of the aid in the form of loans.
“We wanted to have a little bit of what the European nations had,” Trump said of his decision to demand Ukraine pay back the US for it support. “They get their money back by giving money, we don’t get our money back.”
“We’re not getting all of ours, quite a bit of ours was gifted, it was given. There were some loans but mainly it was gifted actually,” Starmer said.
Starmer trumpeted the “special relationship” between the United Kingdom and the US in defense and in business, but also directed some good-natured barbs at current administration officials, wryly commenting on the “buzz” in Washington these days and speaking about a new leader in Washington whom some love and others “love to hate”. (He joked that this was the new ambassador, Peter Mandelson, but the oblique reference to Trump was lost on few.)
“We share the view that our best days lie ahead. And, you know, taking out a chainsaw isn’t quite my style,” said Starmer, clearly referring to Elon Musk, who has riled the British establishment by speaking out in favour of the far-right Reform UK party. “But we are stripping away red tape and bureaucracy. We are reforming permitting, getting things built, reducing barriers to investment and growth. And we’re open for business.”
Like Emmanuel Macron, Starmer needs to show the US president that he can stand up to him – and also show his constituency that he isn’t willing to sacrifice his values in order to make a deal. Macron walked that tightrope earlier this week, but it didn’t yield the main prize: the promise of a US backstop to European defense against Russia. Perhaps Starmer will have better luck with a concrete offer on defense spending.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs friends who can speak to Trump
The strains between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump are evident, particularly as the US strong-arms the embattled leader into signing a rare earths mineral deal that Zelenskyy initially refused to endorse; in the ensuing days, Trump called Zelenskyy a “dictator without elections”.
A report in French media on Thursday said that Trump even sought to cancel his meeting with Zelenskyy this week until Macron stepped in and convinced Trump to receive the Ukrainian leader at the White House on Friday. If true, that could be a crucial intervention to prevent a breakdown in talks between the US and Ukraine as the country’s fate hangs in the balance.
On Sunday, Starmer will host a meeting of European leaders that will include Zelenskyy. While the leader’s future appears uncertain, he may rely on European leaders such as Macron and Starmer to argue his side when his own relationship with Trump remains on shaky ground.
