The Iowa caucuses have begun, marking the start of the electoral process and giving us a glimpse into how voters are dividing their support among the candidates. According to entrance polls, a significant portion of the electorate, 53%, identifies as part of the mega movement. Unsurprisingly, a large majority of these voters, 78%, intend to vote for Donald Trump. Among this cohort, DeSantis garners 10% of the support, Rama Swami receives 9%, and Nikki Haley trails at 3%.
White evangelical voters, comprising about half of the electorate at 51%, show overwhelming support for Trump. In fact, 55% of white evangelical voters are inclined to vote for him, a significant increase from 21% eight years ago. DeSantis is able to capture a quarter of the support from this group, while Haley and Rama Swami receive 12% and 8% respectively.
The very conservative caucus-goers, making up 51% of the overall electorate, also heavily favor Donald Trump. Sixty-two percent of them are in support of Trump, indicating his continued popularity among this segment. DeSantis secures 24% of the support from very conservative voters, while Rama Swami receives 10% and Haley trails at 5%.
Additionally, independent voters, constituting 16% of the electorate, show an interesting trend. Donald Trump appears to be winning over independents, with 47% of their support. Haley follows with 20%, tying with Rama Swami at 19%. DeSantis captures 14% of the independent vote. It is important to note that independents make up a relatively small slice of the Republican caucus-going electorate, but their preferences could still have an impact on the outcome.
These early entrance polls provide valuable insights into the divisions among voters in the Iowa caucuses. The mega movement, which represents more than half of the electorate, shows strong support for Donald Trump. White evangelical voters, a significant voting block, have also rallied behind Trump in large numbers. The very conservative caucus-goers, constituting a larger share than in previous years, continue to solidify their support for the incumbent president. Additionally, independent voters appear to be leaning towards Trump, with a considerable margin over the other candidates. As the caucuses progress and more results come in, it will be interesting to see if these trends hold and how they may shape the outcome of the Republican nomination race.
