Argentina's three most recent presidents have bowed out of the October general election campaign, throwing the race wide open and the outcome in the balance, with the only sure candidate a far-right libertarian who wants to dismantle the central bank.
Political uncertainty has roiled Argentina's already creaky financial markets, with a run on the peso over the last week pushing it to record lows in popular black markets. Inflation is 104.3% and nearly one-in-four people is in poverty.
"It's a coin toss," Shila Vilker, director of pollster Trespuntozero told Reuters about the race. "What we see is a lot of fragmentation in what's on offer politically."
President Alberto Fernandez, whose popularity has tanked, last week ruled out a run for reelection. His predecessor Mauricio Macri, one of the leaders of the main opposition party, also will sit out this race.
Powerful Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, a leftist who sharply divides opinion but has a fervent hardcore support base, said in December she would not run for anything in the 2023 election after being found guilty of corruption.
The opposition coalition Together for Change remains in the driving seat, polls show. But what had seemed a certain victory last year now looks more hazy, with libertarian economist Javier Milei luring voters from the mainstream left and right parties.
"There is an upward trend of voters who are very angry with politics who are seemingly opting for this new force," said Facundo Nejamkis, director of pollster Opina Argentina.
Vilker pegs Together for Change on a total 33% of the likely vote, the ruling Peronist coalition on 28-29% and Milei on 24%. Opina estimates 31%, 26% and 23% respectively. Milei, though, tops the list for individual candidates rather than parties.
"We represent an alternative of real transformation with respect to the political cliques that have governed us for decades," Milei, who proposes to dollarize the economy and eliminate the central bank, told Reuters.
"We will beat any candidate who stands in front of us."
CRISTINA FOR PRESIDENT?
Who that will be is up in the air, likely to be defined in August primaries. The conservative opposition favorites are current Buenos Aires city mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and former security minister Patricia Bullrich.
The Peronists, reeling from the economic crisis, are more divided still. Potential runners are economy minister Sergio Massa, political veteran Daniel Scioli and interior minister Eduardo De Pedro. VP Kirchner could even pull off a shock return, with supporters calling for her to run.
"We are putting all our hope in her," said Norma Varela during a march in support of the VP in April where people carried banners reading "Cristina for president".
"The poor want somebody who supports us and gives us hope."
Analyst Marcelo Rojas said the wide array of contenders was impacting markets. "Potential candidates have very diverging plans, from the dollarization of the right to the controls of the left," he said.
Moderates such as Larreta, Massa or Scioli look strong bets to win a potential head-to-head second round, if no candidate gets above 45% in the first round. But they might fail in the primaries or the general vote as more options split the vote.
A spokesman for Larreta said the candidate was confident moderate voters would come out of the woodwork.
"They are a silent majority that we're betting on," he said.
A spokeswoman for the ruling coalition said things remained "undefined". Other pre-candidates declined to comment.
On the streets of capital Buenos Aires, voter Raul Vazquez, was downbeat regardless of whoever eventually won.
"All of them who come to power do the same – promises, promises. But then, they forget about the people," he said. "I see a lot of people in need in the streets, jobs are needed. They make a lot of plans but don't do anything."
(Reporting by Nicolás Misculin; Additional reporting by Jorge Otaola and Reuters TV; Editing by Lucila Sigal, Adam Jourdan and David Gregorio)
