I’m not going to beat around the bush.
I see no statistical basis or player advantage that says No. 7 Michigan State (+6.5 underdogs with Tipico Sportsbook) should upset Duke on Sunday afternoon.
In his last ride with the Durham faithful, Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils are one of the favorites to win the Men’s NCAA tournament. And aside from talents like Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore–who any squad would be lucky to have–I can give you a laundry list of reasons corroborating that rationale. Duke is the eighth-best scoring team in the country (80.1 points per game). They rebound well (30th in the nation), pass like a well-oiled machine (9th overall in assists), and rarely if ever, give away points by fouling (third-lowest opponent free throw attempts in the country).
Michigan State, by direct contrast, uh, shoots three’s kind of well? (27th overall in three-point percentage.) They have … Gabe Brown? Yeah, I’m not super enthusiastic about this matchup on paper.
But this is Tom Izzo, in March, against Mike Krzyzewski. All bets are off.
Or should I say, on?
A couple nuggets on @MSU_Basketball's win last night:
• 70th all-time #MarchMadness dub (8th team to reach mark)
• 44th team Tom Izzo has defeated in NCAA tourney#B1Gstats pic.twitter.com/8wld7faRqK— Michigan St. on BTN (@MichiganStOnBTN) March 19, 2022
I will never count out a Spartan team against anyone, as long as that man roams courtside for Michigan State. And to be candid, if anyone’s going to knock off Duke before they go on a deep tournament run that frustrates everyone outside of Durham County, it’s a Michigan State team led by Izzo that has seemingly no business beating title contenders.
Duke -6.5 Michigan State +6.5It’s not as if this version of Duke is invincible and immune to letdowns. If the Blue Devils can lose to North Carolina in Mike Krzyzewski’s final-ever game at Cameron Indoor Stadium, if they “make” their legendary coach apologize for their poor effort, then they can certainly lose to Michigan State when the stakes are win or go home.
Steel your nerves and have some courage. Roll with Izzo and Sparty over Coach K one last time.
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