If war comes to Taiwan, the local citizens might be sent to their nearest 7-Eleven.
No one knows for sure what a Chinese attack on Taiwan will look like, but there are some assumptions made by government planners. They expect Taiwan’s military and maybe police will be sent to frontlines, leaving civilian first responders in charge of care and control.
Outside assistance would almost certainly be cut off by a blockade. Domestic train lines might be taken out, and airspaces closed to non-military flights like cargo. The internet and maybe phone signal would probably be cut off.
If all this happened, Taiwanese residents could walk to one of the island’s more than 13,000 convenience stores to pick up rations and medical supplies, delivered by the chains’ own logistical transport systems, according to four people familiar with the discussions.
They could read government communications which have been faxed to the stores and displayed on the window. Or maybe they would be able to send a message using the store’s emergency hotspot.
Convenience stores, including 7-Elevens, worked with Taiwan’s government during the pandemic to ration out masks during the early times of shortages. Turning them into a wartime community hub would need a lot more preparation, but that is being discussed by a committee created by Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, to make his people resilient in the event of an attack or disaster.
This idea is among a number of scenarios being considered by Lai’s team of 27 senior cabinet and national security ministers, NGOs, and figures from the business, social and religious sectors.
The “whole of society defence resilience committee” is charged with preparing Taiwan’s society for war or disaster.
China’s annexation plans
China’s government wants to annex Taiwan. It says this would ideally be peaceful but military force will be used if needed. Analysts say China is not capable of the required full-scale invasion yet, but is getting closer.
In the meantime it bombards Taiwan with grey zone harassment; legal, economic, and cyberwarfare; disinformation and influence campaigns and espionage.
China’s military also frequently rehearses blockades of Taiwan’s main island, as recently as last week.
“If Taiwan loses its sea supply lines, its domestic resources will be quickly exhausted, and its social order will descend into chaos,” said academic and former Chinese general Meng Xiangqing on Wednesday.
While hoping for the best, Taiwan is also preparing its citizens for the worst.
“Faced with threats, whether they are natural disasters or authoritarian expansion ambitions, we believe that as long as the government and society as a whole are prepared, they can respond,” Lai told the committee at its second meeting in December.
The aim of the committee is to ensure that in the event of a crisis the government and core services continue, critical supplies, networks and infrastructure are protected, and that the community can give civil support to the military if needed.
A lot of the work builds on civilian programmes already started by NGOs, and the tens of thousands of new disaster relief centres and evacuation and air raid shelters. There is also the existing government response strategies for Taiwan’s frequent earthquakes and the pandemic. Convenience stores served as community hubs for both.
“Private businesses can play a crucial role in issues such as distributing critical supplies,” said Wen Lii, spokesperson for the president’s office.
“Private businesses have also joined discussions on providing shelter space, medical supplies and stockpiling.”
The committee has met just three times so far, but have already held one multi-branch tabletop exercise in December and one live drill in Tainan last week which involved civil responders and no military.
The tabletop exercise revealed some glaring weaknesses, and dangerous presumptions. One department in charge of food provision had no plan for the police force being unavailable to distribute it.
Another department representative had not considered they might be unable to post statements online or send communiques to neighbourhood leaders.
“After the tabletop exercises, things changed very fast because every ministry realised how unprepared they are,” said Poyu Tseng, a consultant at NGO Doublethink Lab, and committee member focused on civilian force training and utilisation.
“They’re just, one by one, realising, oh, this is a very weak plan … it’s forced people to think more.”
Energy and communication systems
There are also critical weaknesses in Taiwan’s energy and communications systems.
Energy security is highly vulnerable to a blockade. About 97% of Taiwan’s energy supply is imported. There are strategic reserves depending on the fuel type, with about 90 days worth of coal and petroleum and 40 days of liquid natural gas.
“Energy will be the most critical problem that people will talk about, because the shelters, the transportation, the hospitals, they all need the energy,” said Dr Wen-ling Tu, a committee member focused on energy and critical infrastructure.
The Research Institute for Democracy, Society And Emerging Technology (DSET), of which Tu is director, has analysed potential blockade scenarios and resulting electricity restrictions, finding a need for more renewables, while Ukrainian delegations have advised Taiwan to ramp up battery storage and power bank production.
The state-owned Taipower’s electricity grid is also too centralised, with long transmission lines between large power plants all vulnerable to strikes.
Tsai-ying Lu, director of DSET’s climate resilience and sustainability programme said the government is diversifying imports and pursuing renewables, but needs to improve incorporating solar and wind energy into the grid, and preparing the private sector for potential power cuts during a crisis.
China is already exploiting Taiwan’s communication and information network frailties. In 2024 China made an average of 2.4m cyber-attacks a day on Taiwan’s government.
They have hacked into Taiwan’s government websites, train station displays and 7-Eleven screens, and allegedly a hospital administration system. China is also suspected of cutting undersea cables that supply Taiwan’s internet.
Taiwan does not have access to the Starlink satellite network after early negotiations with the Elon Musk-owned company fell over. Instead it is pursuing joint commercial low-Earth-orbit coverage, and its own domestic system, including 700 hotspots planned across the country for government and military but potentially civilian use as well.
Disinformation campaign
But before it takes out Taiwan’s internet and phone signals, Beijing would probably use them to spread disinformation and chaos. And Taiwan’s media is seen as highly vulnerable to planted fake news.
Staff at some major news outlets have described high quotas which allow little time for factchecking, while other outlets even have content sharing arrangements with Chinese state media.
But there appears to be little official appetite to address this vulnerability – one government official suggested Taiwanese people were pretty sceptical about any news report already.
Tseng said it is a “huge loophole”.
“From a [foreign information manipulations and interference] perspective, I think we really need a stronger stance, especially on malicious actors.”
The committee members and analysts who spoke to the Guardian were all cautiously optimistic about its goals.
Some said there was not a clear sense of direction yet, although it was early days. Others worried about the bipartisan support needed for its success.
“We are on the right direction, but the reason I’m not so confident about the implementation is because it also depends on what kind of the resources that we can gather to invest,” said Tu.
Opposition parties currently control Taiwan’s legislature and have been slashing budgets including for Taipower (and its ability to strengthen its infrastructure) and for the ministry of digital affairs, which among other curtailment has had to drastically cut back the number of satellite hotspots being installed.
The political division also affects social cohesion, said Tseng.
“When you’re more polarised, you’re more chaotic, and when you’re more chaotic, you’re weaker,” she said. “Polarisation reverses resilience.”
7-Eleven and other companies represented on the committee declined to comment.
“For a society constantly threatened by natural disasters and other risks, there’s a useful principle: Don’t panic, but don’t relax,” said Wen Lii from the president’s office.
“We need to achieve a balance, in which we continue to build confidence and ensure economic growth, while also raising awareness about potential threats.”
Additional research by Jason Tzu Kuan Lu
