ANALYSIS — Watching popular governors flame out in Senate races cycle after cycle might cause Democrat Roy Cooper to pause before entertaining a Senate run in North Carolina in 2026.
But while overcoming their state’s partisan lean has proved difficult for some state executives trying to move to Capitol Hill, Cooper would start in a more favorable position if he decided to challenge Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, and it would be a mistake to dismiss his potential candidacy.
First of all, it’s unclear whether Cooper will run at all.
“I love public service. I want to keep helping North Carolina and our country,” the soon-to-be-former governor told local politics reporter Joe Bruno last week. “I haven’t made that decision yet, but it’s on the table.”
Cooper couldn’t run for reelection in 2024 due to term limits and will be succeeded in early January by Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein, who defeated GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson by 15 points last month.
After six successful statewide races since 2000 — four as attorney general and two as governor — it’s natural that Cooper would be mentioned as a potential Senate candidate. Tillis is up for a third term next cycle, after unseating Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan by 1.5 points in 2014 and winning reelection over Democrat Cal Cunningham by 1.8 points six years later.
Tillis hasn’t officially announced his reelection campaign as yet, but he’s got a Washington fundraiser scheduled for Wednesday. And Democrats are dreaming of the scandal-plagued Robinson challenging him in a primary. But even if Tillis runs again, incumbency hasn’t mattered a whole lot in North Carolina, considering that four of the previous seven senators from the Tar Heel State lost reelection.
Governors flame out
On the surface, there are some warning signs for Cooper.
Recent cycles have seen a handful of high-profile governors crash and burn when trying to run for the Senate. And the races haven’t even been close at the end.
But those governors-turned-Senate-candidates were running against the partisan trends of their home states.
Gov. Steve Bullock lost the 2020 Montana Senate race to Republican Steve Daines 55 percent to 45 percent. That was the same cycle President Donald Trump carried the state 57 percent to 41 percent over Joe Biden, four years after defeating Hillary Clinton there by 20 points.
Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen lost the 2018 Tennessee Senate race to Republican Marsha Blackburn 55 percent to 44 percent. Bredesen had been out of office for eight years and was running two years after Trump had carried the Volunteer State by 26 points.
Republican former Gov. Linda Lingle lost the 2012 Hawaii Senate race, 63 percent to 37 percent, to Democrat Mazie Hirono. Lingle had been out of office just two years, but President Barack Obama won Hawaii by 43 points at the top of that ticket that year, a slight drop from his 45-point victory in 2008.
And Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan just lost to Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, 55 percent to 43 percent, in Maryland in November. The race was extremely expensive, and Hogan had been out of office just a couple of years. But, once again, the top of the ticket was too strong to overcome: Kamala Harris won the state by 29 points. (Biden had carried it by 33 points in 2020.)
Even when the tide hasn’t been as strong at the top of the ticket, a few former governors have gotten decimated. In 2016, Democrat Ted Strickland came off the sidelines to run for the Senate in Ohio and was soundly defeated by GOP Sen. Rob Portman by 21 points, 58 percent to 37 percent. Trump won by just 8 points that year. And in 2008, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore was crushed by Democratic Sen. Mark Warner, 65 percent to 34 percent, while Obama was winning the commonwealth by just 6 points.
Indiana Democrat Evan Bayh often gets included on this list because of his 2016 loss to Republican Todd Young. The former governor and senator hadn’t held office in six years and ended up losing by 10 points — which was about half of Clinton’s loss to Trump that year.
But Bayh is also an example of a governor who successfully shifted to the Senate — he first won election in 1998 over Republican former Fort Wayne Mayor Paul Helmke. But while Indiana has been a Republican-leaning state for awhile, the preceding presidential election wasn’t a blowout: Republican Bob Dole finished ahead of President Bill Clinton by 6 points in the Hoosier State, with Ross Perot taking a little more than 10 percent.
Sometimes governors win
There are other governors who have successfully made the jump to the Senate, but it’s almost always when their politics align with the partisanship of the state.
Republican Gov. Jim Justice was just elected senator in West Virginia. While he won his first gubernatorial election as a Democrat in 2016, Justice saw his state shifting toward Republicans, switched parties less than a year later and won reelection easily in 2020. This year’s race also wasn’t particularly competitive with Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin III’s retirement.
Manchin ran successfully for the Senate in 2010 as governor with a 10-point win over Republican John Raese. While a Democrat winning West Virginia is almost unthinkable now after Trump’s 42-point victory this year, the Mountain State was a different place back then. Obama lost it by just 13 points in 2008, two years before Manchin’s first Senate win. That certainly didn’t make West Virginia a swing state, but it was easier political terrain for Manchin than what Bullock, Hogan, Bredesen or Lingle faced.
Democratic former Gov. John Hickenlooper was elected to the Senate in Colorado in 2020, with a 9-point win over GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. At the top of the ticket, Biden prevailed over Trump by about 13 points.
Back in 2012, Maine independent Angus King was elected to the Senate about 10 years after last serving as governor. The senator, who caucuses with Democrats, had a friendly top of the ticket with Obama winning Maine by 15 points while King took 53 percent over Republican Charlie Summers (31 percent) and Democrat Cynthia Dill (13 percent).
Can Cooper win?
While the preceding examples should give Democratic Govs. Andy Beshear of Kentucky or Laura Kelly of Kansas pause after listening to any recruitment phone calls, there’s a path to victory for Cooper because North Carolina is a fundamentally more competitive state.
The best recent example for Cooper is probably Democrat Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire. In 2016, the two-term governor unseated GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte 47.98 percent to 47.84 percent. The Granite State presidential race was also very close that year, with Hillary Clinton defeating Trump 46.83 percent to 46.46 percent.)
Of course, Cooper, 67, will not have a presidential race at the top of the ticket if he runs in the 2026 midterms. But North Carolina is one of the country’s battleground states. Trump just prevailed over Harris narrowly, 51 percent to 48 percent. Republicans have a modest 2.2-point Baseline advantage in North Carolina, according to Inside Elections, and midterm environments are typically poor for the president’s party.
Zooming out, North Carolina is a must-win for Democrats to have any chance of regaining the Senate majority. After losing four seats and control of the chamber in 2024, Democrats need to gain four seats in two years to get back to 51 seats. And they need to do it with a difficult map.
Maine Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican up for reelection in 2026 in a state that Harris carried. So to win the majority, Senate Democrats will need to win that seat, as well as any three of North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Alaska — all states Trump won handily, except for the Tar Heel State. Democrats also need to hold all of their own seats, including battlegrounds Georgia and Michigan, both of which Trump won as well.
So, even though the 2024 results haven’t been certified and it’s entirely unclear how the electorate will react to Trump’s second term, Democrats are already the underdogs in the 2026 fight for the Senate.
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