Could Dominic Perrottet and his former treasurer Matt Kean continue their double act as the moderate-right New South Wales power duo in Canberra?
Kean has made no secret of his ambition to move to federal politics and on Sunday ruled out contending for the leadership of the NSW opposition, further fuelling speculation.
However, Perrottet, a sharp performer in parliament and a key figure in the NSW right, has not yet spoken of his plans, other than to say he will not contest the leadership and that he intends to spend more time with his wife and seven children, aged between 2 and 13.
It’s probably too early to speculate but the more likely direction for Perrottet, say his friends, is to follow the two previous Liberal premiers, Mike Baird and Gladys Berejiklian, into business.
Baird initially went into banking after politics, but is now the chief executive of HammondCare, a provider of aged and palliative care. Berejiklian is a senior executive at Optus.
As a former commercial lawyer and with four years as state treasurer, as well as more than a year as premier, Perrottet is likely to be snapped up, if and when he calls politics a day.
Both men are 41.
Kean has time to work the numbers for a tilt at a federal seat, since the next federal election is not expected until 2025.
Bradfield, which overlaps with Kean’s state seat of Hornsby, would be the easiest entry point, though Kean has apparently told friends he would consider running in a teal-held seat like North Sydney, previously held by his friend and fellow moderate Trent Zimmerman.
The MP for Bradfield, Paul Fletcher, who is the manager of opposition business and a member of the moderate faction, was asked repeatedly whether he would run again.
“I think any rational person would say exactly the same thing. I’ve considered my position before previous elections, but if you ask me, am I committed to serving the people of Bradfield? I’m absolutely committed to serving the people of Bradfield,” he told Patricia Karvelas on the ABC’s Radio National.
There has also been speculation that Liberal MP Alex Hawke’s days are numbered in the seat of Mitchell. The local branches are now controlled by the hard-right faction, while Hawke is the leading figure of the centre-right.
There is no love lost between the two factions, particularly after Hawke was blamed for holding up preselections for last year’s federal election in order to shore up the centre right’s position, a move that some in the party said contributed to the Liberal party’s loss.
Hawke did not return the Guardian’s calls. Mitchell covers Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Winston Hills, parts of Northmead and North Rocks in the south, along with new housing estates around Kellyville and Rouse Hill.
Intriguingly, Perrottet grew up in the area and was previously the member for Castle Hill, then Hawkesbury, then Epping. His earlier seats overlap with Mitchell.
Those close to Perrottet say his wife, Helen, had ruled out a move to federal politics because of the difficulties it would pose for the family. But a week is a long time in politics.
A third former NSW minister, Victor Dominello, could also be Canberra bound, but not as an elected representative. The minister for government services, Bill Shorten, has sounded out Dominello for a possible role assisting with digital delivery of government services.
