If the 2024 season has taught F1 CEO Stefano Domenicali one key lesson, it is that it is impossible to predict with any certainty how things are going to turn out.
While many were talking back in March of Max Verstappen potentially winning all the races this year after his dominant start in Bahrain, it did not turn out that way at all.
In fact, with seven different winners from the first half of the season, something that has not happened since that crazy start to 2012, the stage is set for a wide-open battle for victories – and the constructors’ championship at least - after the summer break.
Domenicali never joined the doom-mongers at the start of the year, as he was always convinced that the combination of the cost cap and aerodynamic testing restrictions would eventually serve to close things up.
He has always been open-minded about things; aware that what is viewed right today may not be true for tomorrow. So just as Verstappen’s dominance was not set in stone from the off, so too must F1’s longer-term future be viewed as an ever-evolving thing.
Speaking in a wide-ranging interview with Motorsport.com to discuss the state of F1, Domenicali explains why he thinks there is a great opportunity now for grand prix racing to continue riding the wave of popularity that erupted following the Liberty Media takeover.
“I'm very pleased to say what I said at the beginning of the year is exactly what is happening, when everyone was believing that I was saying that for political reasons,” said Domenicali about his faith that 2024 would not be a damp squib of single-driver dominance.
“This will for sure continue until the end of 2025. This element of sporting action, and sporting drama, is definitely there.”
That reference to 2025 is intriguing because, amid all the excitement about the on-track battles now, there is the dark cloud on the horizon relating to the potential downside of new 2026 regulations.
Many within the paddock repeatedly point out that the best way to close the grid up is to keep the rules the same. The best way to blow things apart is by changing the regulations.
As F1 design legend Adrian Newey said earlier this year: “Just as everything's starting to converge, and fans are starting to get what they want, we have got an even bigger change – because it’s the first time I can remember we’ve got a new PU and chassis happening at the same time.
“So, the chances of that blowing the grid apart have to be pretty significant.”
Domenicali does not shy away from the growing concerns that 2026 can unravel all the greatness that F1 is delivering right now. But he thinks that it is important to recognise the motivations that prompted the decision to shake things up.
“There are always reasons why we are changing,” he said.
“First of all, because we need to be ahead of what we are doing. And this [2026] technical regulation was, at that specific moment that the decision was taken, related to a need for manufacturers to be involved in F1, with a different kind of technology that would need to be used. I do believe that is really fundamental and crucial.
“Plus, the fact that now we have sustainable fuel at the centre of this technical project will speed up the process of making sure that this new technology will be available for the mobility world quicker. It will develop a drop in fuel with a lower price that will be beneficial to the market around the world. That I'm pretty convinced.
“As you know today, the price [of sustainable fuel] is much higher, but F1 has been always very good in speeding up the process and helping technology to go in the right direction. So that's really what I'm expecting, and I'm sure that everyone will work in this direction.”
One manufacturer in, one manufacturer out
There have been suggestions recently that for all the positive reasons behind the new rules – especially in attracting new manufacturer interest from Audi – the gains may not actually have been worth the huge costs everyone has had to commit to.
Considering the billions of dollars being spent up and down the grid on creating all-new engines, and the compromised cars that have resulted from the planned 50/50 ICE/electric power split, F1 is likely to end up with a net zero manufacturer gain because Renault is set to pull out.
Domenicali does not agree with the viewpoint that the regulations have moved F1 one step forward and then one step back.
“I think that the real decision [from Renault] was related to another condition, to be very open and very honest with you,” he said. “It's not related to the wrong regulation. It is related to a different situation that they have to deliver a result in a different timeframe.
“I believe that, at the moment when the regulation was defined, there was the need to make sure that the manufacturers were really interested to be part of the championship. They are a vital element of this equation, because with no engine we cannot run - therefore there was the need to listen.
“And it is true that, because we don't have to be to be shy or to hide behind a tree, that it was a compromise solution because of the different interests of all the different manufacturers, in fact.
“But I would say, the FIA tried to do the best to make sure that we could have something that would be okay for everyone. That is true.”
Slowing change down
Amid the intrigue over whether this ever-repeated cycle of regulation changes blowing close grids apart every five years should change, Domenicali does think it will now be a good time to consider perhaps slowing rules revolutions down.
“This is a point of: is really now the time to do in 2030 another step change? We are not in a position to answer today, because we need to wait and see how this new technology will come in and how this will be developed.
“Therefore, there will be a point at which we need to discuss about it, and we need to understand if the need of the manufacturers, the need of teams and the need of the engineering, is definitely there as it was when there was the need to change the regulation.
“The need for change normally is put on the table for two reasons. One is because we are the pinnacle of motorsport, and we are endorsing the top level of technology.
“The second in the past was that, because it was pretty clear: the objective was stopping a dominance period of cars. I remember when we were dressed in a different colours [Domenicali is a former Ferrari team principal], so that's part of the game.
“But now with the new elements of regulation, budget cap and aerodynamics restriction, I think that this point is not anymore on the table of discussion.
“So the real thing is technological challenge in the future. Is it relevant that the change will be in such a short time cycle of five years? That will be the point of discussion for the future.”
Changing the cars
There is something that Domenicali thinks does need to change though – the weight of the cars.
“I think what will be always on the table in the future will be the weight and the dimension of the cars because we don't have to forget where the formula car approach was started.
“We are now in a situation where cars are big, cars are heavy, and maybe in the future, with this new development, we can really decide to go back to be lighter.
“But I would say, it is a bit premature to discuss about it. Let's see, first of all, how we can prepare to be really ready for the right technical regulation, also sporting regulations, for ‘26 and then we will discuss accordingly at the right time.”
The quest for lighter cars is something that was aimed for with the 2026 rules revamp, but efforts to get mass out did not go as far as originally hoped for.
Part of the issue relates to safety advances, because having more robust cars – plus the Halo – comes with weight consequences. But one of the other factors in current car weight is the power unit – especially batteries.
So if F1 wants to get car weight down longer-term, then moving away from heavy hybrids has to be an avenue worth exploring – whether that be a shift to hydrogen or even a rolling back to old-school V8s.
Domenicali has some interesting thoughts on the matter: “I don't think that hydrogen itself will be a medium-term solution for F1, for many, many reasons – including technology, cost, and safety.
“But I do believe that the right way to develop that [weight reduction] would be either to stay with this kind of concept, with moves to reduce the weight, or – if sustainable fuel is doing the right job to be zero emission and we are taking the point of sustainability in the right way – maybe we don't need anymore to be so complicated or so expensive in terms of engine development.
“So we may think to go back to engines that are much lighter and maybe with a good sound.
“I think that this point of discussion will be for sure in the three years after the introduction. So in the middle of the new journey, we need to think and see where we are and what we believe the situation is evolving.
“But one thing that is very important: look back and see how things are changing so rapidly, so quickly. I remember everyone a couple of years ago was saying, ‘Ah, electric cars for everyone, forever’. Now, the handbrake is bigger than going ahead; so we need to be prudent.
“We need to make sure that we are taking the right approach. We are in a sport business and therefore I think that we need to take the right decision for our needs and for our sport.”
Part two of the Domenicali interview, where he talks about sporting regulation changes and the impact of the F1 movie, will be published tomorrow.
