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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Julia Kollewe

Bank of England governor says risks to UK, global economy from trade wars ‘substantial’ – as it happened

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on February 6.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the central bank's Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, on February 6. Photograph: Kin Cheung/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said there was a “major shift going on in the US” which the Bank would have to “take very seriously”, as he was quizzed by MPs on the Treasury select committee about the impact of changes to trade policy and new tariffs.

“The risks to the UK economy and the world economy are substantial,” he stressed.

European financial markets have rallied sharply and German borrowing costs soared after the country’s prospective leaders announced a historic deal to loosen its “debt brake” rule to boost spending on defence.

The yield – in effect the interest rate – on 30-year German government bonds rose by 16 basis points, after having earlier jumped by as much as 25 basis points to 3.07% in its biggest increase since October 1998.

The Dax 30 index, which tracks the largest German companies, rose by almost 4%, powered by industrial stocks. Share prices also leapt in London, Paris and Milan amid investor hopes that a massive boost in European spending on defence and infrastructure would kickstart the region’s ailing economy.

Defence stocks have gained sharply in recent weeks as world leaders scramble to piece together the funding for a vast increase in military expenditure amid mounting concern over Donald Trump’s commitment to European security.

The euro jumped by 1.4% against the dollar, while sterling was 0.6% higher against the US currency. The dollar slid by 1.1% against a basket of major currencies.

Thank you for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow.

Updated

The Bank of England governor has also warned that the US leaving institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank would be a “very damaging thing for the world”.

Speaking to MPs on the Treasury select committee, Andrew Bailey said he was encouraged after hearing that the new US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “believes in multilateralism, and I strongly welcome that”.

Bailey also said there was a “major shift going on in the US” which the Bank would have to “take very seriously”, after he was quizzed about the impact of potential changes to trade policy and new tariffs.

“The risks to the UK economy and the world economy are substantial,” he stressed.

When asked if US trade policy could lead to people having less money in their pockets, he answered: “Yes, that’s right... We serve the people, and we have to take it very seriously.”

Wall Street edges higher after services data, while investors hope for softer approach on tariffs

Shares on Wall Street have risen moderately, after better-than-expected survey data on the US services sector calmed nerves somewhat, while investors wait for more news on tariffs – with hopes for a softer approach.

US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said Donald Trump is considering granting some relief on imports of goods such as cars and car parts that comply with the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada.

An announcement is expected later today.

The Dow Jones rose by 0.4% while the S&P 500 edged 0.16% higher and the Nasdaq was 0.2% higher.

A survey from the Institute for Supply Management showed the US services sector expanded more strongly than expected last month, with the index at 53.5, above forecasts of 52.6. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion. However, rising cost pressures are a concern.

Bailey: 'Essential that we don't abandon multilateralism,' risks to UK and global economy from trade wars 'substantial'

We’ve moved on to US tariffs.

Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said if the US imposes tariffs on UK imports, that would be bad for British economic growth, and also push down inflation, all things being equal.

Andrew Bailey, the governor, said “trade supports growth”. On tackling imbalances such as China’s current account surplus, he said:

The place to solve [these problems] is in multilateral forums

rather than bilaterally. He said “it’s really essential” that “we don’t abandon multilateralism”. He added:

The risks to the UK economy and the world economy are substantial.

Updated

Governor Andrew Bailey is now talking. All four members of the rate-setting committee who are testifying at the moment in front of MPs, voted in favour of cutting interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5% at last month’s meeting. Two other members (Swati Dhingra and Catherine Mann) voted against.

Bailey said the central bank expects a pick-up in inflation, but it will be nothing like a few years ago.

Updated

Megan Greene, another external member of the monetary policy committee, is now speaking. She is a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University and also teaches at London Business School.

“The disinflationary trend that we’ve had is probably on track,” she said.

“GDP [growth] has roughly flatlined since March,” she added.

The Treasury committee hearing has just started, with Prof Alan Taylor, a professor at New York’s Columbia University and an external member of the MPC, speaking first. Referring to a series of shocks such as Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine etc, he said:

We are living in an age of uncertainty.

Those kinds of shocks leave big scars.

When you have uncertainty, it will feed through first into demand.

and later supply.

Updated

While we wait for Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other policymakers to appear before the Treasury committee, here are some written comments from Megan Greene, one of the monetary policy committee members.

She has advocated a cautious approach to cutting interest rates. In the annual report to the committee, she explained:

It’s less likely inflation persistence will fade on its own accord, and more likely monetary policy will need to remain restrictive in order to either generate a negative output gap to bring inflation to target sustainably or to lean against structural shifts in the economy.

Updated

The dollar has been sliding amid “Trumpcession” fears, and has lost 0.9% against a basket of other major currencies. The dollar index fell to 104.75.

The euro has jumped by 1.2% to $1.0755, as investors were cheered by. Germany’s proposed €500bn infrastructure fund, and the prospect of a splurge in defence spending, despite fears over trade wars.

Sterling has also strengthened against the US currency, rising by 0.5% to $1.2855.

Updated

The selloff in the US dollar is accelerating, after payroll operator ADP reported a sharp slowdown in hiring last month.

The dollar is now down 0.85% today against a basket of other major currencies.

The US Commerce Secretary has appeared to hint that Donald Trump could cut Canada and Mexico some slack on the tariff front.

Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg Television this morning that president Trump could announce changes to the tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as this afternoon. That could include rolling back the rate on sectors like autos.

Bloomberg reports:

Trump is expected to make a decision on the matter this afternoon, Lutnick added, reiterating that the administration’s tariff policy would be re-evaluated on April 2 to include larger swaths of imports and reciprocal levies.

“There are going to be tariffs — let’s be clear — but what he’s thinking about is which sections of the market that maybe he’ll consider giving them relief until we get to, of course, April 2,” Lutnick said. “I think it is going to be in the middle somewhere.”

US private sector job creation slows

Oh dear.

Much fewer jobs were created at US companies last month, in a sign that America’s economic growth could be losing pace.

Private employers across the US added just 77,000 jobs in February, according to payrolls operator ADP, down from 186,000 in January.

That’s the smallest rise in hiring since last July – ADP reports that trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. Small business employment also fell.

Economists had expected an increase of around 140,000 new hires, so this is a significant miss.

Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, explains that companies may be nervous about hiring more staff in the current economic climate:

“Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month.

“Our data, combined with other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they assess the economic climate ahead.”

ADP reports that firms in the Northeast of the US added 55,000 jobs, while Midwest companies added 56,000.

But there was a 12,000 drop in payrolls in the South, and a 27,000 decline in the West.

Updated

UK says Microsoft/OpenAI partnership does not need anti-trust investigation

In the tech world, Britain’s competition authority has ruled that Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI Inc does not qualify for an investigation.

The CMA has concluded that the tie-up does not fall under the merger provisions laid out in the Enterprise Act 2002.

The regulator had decided to look at the partnership, after a bout of leadership and boardroom turmoil at OpenAI which resulted in the firing and rehiring of CEO Sam Altman, and Microsoft getting a non-voting observer seat on the OpenAI board.

Microsoft invested $1bn in OpenAI in 2019, but while this gave it “material influence”, the CMA has concluded that it does not now have de facto control.

A Microsoft spokesperson has welcomed the CMA’s decision, saying the partnership with OpenAI will “promote competition, innovation, and responsible AI development”, adding

“We welcome the CMA’s conclusion, after careful and prudent consideration of the commercial realities, to close its investigation.”

Updated

Back in the UK, the takeover of Royal Mail is likely to be delayed by regulatory issues in Romania.

Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky’s EP Group told the City this morning that the deal is now likely to be signed off in the second quarter of 2025, once a Regulatory Condition related to foreign direct investment in Romania has been resolved.

That Condition is the only one that remains ourstanding, EP says.

EP Group won approval for the £3.57bn takeover of Royal Mail last December, and the deal had been expected to close in the first quarter of this year.

Here’s our full story on the rise in Tesla’s UK sales, despite a consumer backlash in the rest of Europe following Elon Musk’s repeated interventions in regional politics.

Canada requests WTO consultations with US over 'unjustified tariffs'

Canada’s ambassador to the World Trade Organization in Geneva has started the ball rolling to fight Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.

In a posting on LinkedIn, ambassador Nadia Theodore said she had requested “consultations” with the US over the 25% tariffs which were imposed yesterday.

Theodore writes:

The U.S. decision leaves us with no choice but to respond to protect Canadian interests.

All hands on deck.

Everyone play their position.

I played mine today and on behalf of the Government of Canada, requested WTO consultations with the Government of the United States in regard to its unjustified tariffs on Canada.

Theodore adds that Trump’s decision to impose the tariffs was “not the outcome we hoped for”, and urges the US administration to reconsider their tariffs, adding:

But until then, elbows up.

M&S hands store staff 5% pay rise

Marks & Spencer is handing its 50,000 shop workers a 5% pay rise from 1 April.

The clothing and food retailer said the pay for UK customer assistants will go up to at least £12.60 an hour, while those in London will get £13.85 an hour.

This will cost the company £95m.

The move comes ahead of the 6.7% rise in the UK’s national minimum wage to £12.21 an hour for most adults from next month.

M&S chief executive Stuart Machin said:

Following the government’s recent increases in tax and national insurance contributions, it’s no secret that M&S and indeed the entire retail sector has some significant cost headwinds to face in the new financial year.

However, I have always believed that we should not allow these headwinds to impact our hourly paid colleagues.

Several other retailers, including Sainsbury’s and Costa Coffee, have also recently announced pay rises above the rate of inflation, which hit a 10-month high of 3% in January.

Pay growth in the UK picked up in late 2024 and is being watched closely by the Bank of England, which is tasked with keeping overall consumer price inflation at an annual rate of 2%. The central bank has been cautious about cutting its base rate, currently at 4.5%.

Governor Andrew Bailey, chief economist Huw Pill and other policymakers will appear before the treasury committee this afternoon to answer questions from MPs on interest rates.

German construction and arms makers boost stock markets

German stock markets are surging while the country’s borrowing costs have jumped.

Last night, the two parties likely the form the next coalition government, the CDU/CSU and SPD, agreed to overhaul borrowing rules to boost defence and infrastructure spending, in a bid to kick-start the lacklustre economy, the biggest in Europe.

The blue-chip Dax in Frankfurt rose by 3.5% to trade near a record high, while the mid-cap index of 50 medium-sized companies leapt by more than 10% at one stage, and is now 6.1% ahead, on track for its biggest daily rise in three years.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index climbed by 1.55%. Europe’s construction and materials index, and the aerospace and defence index, both hit record highs, advancing by 5.6% and 3.4% respectively.

The country’s biggest construction, engineering and arms companies posted sharp share gains ahead of the expected splurge in government spending.

Cement maker Heidelberg Materials jumped by 13.5%, industrial services firm Bilfinger leapt by more than 19% and construction group Hochtief advanced by 15.4%. Engineering and steel firm ThyssenKrupp rose by 13.6% while arms maker Rheinmetall gained 5%.

The prospect of Germany’s controversial debt brake being loosened was welcomed by economists, but also drove borrowing costs in bond markets higher.

The yield, or interest rate, on Germany’s 10-year bond leapt by 20 basis points to 2.689% mid-morning while the 30-year yield rose by 18 bps to 3.014% (after earlier spiking by nearly 25 bps).

Patrick Armstrong, chief investment officer at the London-based investment service Plurimi Wealth, told Reuters:

Germany does have a very under-leveraged balance sheet as far as countries go, and anything it can do to spend and stimulate growth, the market would respond positively to.

It’s the combination of easier fiscal rules in Europe combined with [US] tariffs that may not be as long lasting as what the market was worried about yesterday.

Updated

More on the dollar, which has slid by 0.7% against a basket of major currencies this morning.

Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at the broker ActivTrades, said:

The euro rose against the dollar in early Wednesday trading, building on the momentum gathered at the start of the week and reaching its highest level of the year. The dollar has been weakening across the board, with the index tracking its performance against a basket of major currencies down more than 4% since early February.

Traders have shifted from pricing in growth and inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs to anticipating a slowdown in the US economy as the country moves towards protectionism.

Meanwhile, the euro has benefited from growing consensus within Europe on increasing spending in defence and infrastructure, supported by plans to relax budget deficit constraints and create a common fund – a dynamic likely to stimulate growth and drive inflation higher. Nevertheless, some dark clouds linger on the horizon for the single currency. If confirmed, US tariffs would threaten eurozone economic prospects and act as a headwind for the euro.

Tesla sales surge in the UK despite backlash in Europe

Sales of Teslas surged more than a fifth last month as the prospect of a buyer backlash over Elon Musk’s controversial and divisive behaviour since becoming a key figure in Donald Trump’s administration appears to not yet have hurt the electric car maker in the UK.

Almost 4,000 Teslas were sold in the UK in February, with the Model 3 and Model Y proving the second and third most-popular after the Mini Cooper, according to the latest new car registration figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

Sales of Teslas were up 20.7% year-on-year against an overall market that registered a total of 84,054 new registrations, a 1% decline compared to the same month last year.

The SMMT said that sales of full electric vehicles (BEVs) rose almost 42%, accounting for a quarter of all new registrations, because buyers are seeking to beat a new tax on expensive cars that comes into force in April and will impact many electric vehicles for the first time.

There has been some evidence that Musk’s interventions in European political affairs and senior role in Trump’s administration is leading to a consumer backlash by Tesla owners or prospective buyers.

The tech billionaire and close Trump adviser has used fascist-style salutes, shown support for Germany’s far-right AfD party, theatrically brandished a “chainsaw of democracy” at a conservative conference, and accused Keir Starmer and other senior politicians of covering up the scandal about grooming gangs.

Sales of new Tesla cars almost halved in Europe in January, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), pushing its market share down to 1%.

Updated

Europe's aerospace and defence index hits record high

As defence stocks are soaring, Europe’s aerospace and defence index has hit a new record high, rising by 3.7%.

The euro has also powered ahead and is now 0.8% higher against the dollar at $1.0711.

Deutsche Bank analysts hailed the German debt brake deal, allowing higher spending on defence and infrastructure, as “the biggest and fastest fiscal policy shift in post-unification German history”.

German economist Florian Kronawitter, who posts on “Next Economy,” said on X:

Updated

Ukraine dollar bonds rally after Trump says Kyiv ready to talk

Ukraine’s international bonds are rallying after Donald Trump said Kyiv is ready to negotiate over the war with Russia (which began just over three years ago when Moscow launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbouring country).

You can read more on our European live blog here:

Ukraine’s bonds have see-sawed in recent days in response to the US president’s announcements, including his freezing of US military assistance, after he held behind-the-scenes talks with Russian president Vladmir Putin in an effort to end the war. Last Friday there was that public clash between Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, in the Oval Office.

Keir Starmer then convened European leaders at a summit in London on Sunday to put together a peace plan to present to the United States, and European nations vowed to increase spending on defence.

Ukrainian bonds maturing in 2035 rallied by more than 1.70 cents and are now bid at 62.18 cents on the dollar, 0.88 cents higher. Other maturities made similar gains.

Updated

The European markets clearly like Germany’s “bazooka” – a new €500bn infrastructure fund and a loosening of the debt brake to effectively allow unlimited defence spending.

Germany’s mid-cap index (MDAX) 50 mid-cap stocks has extended gains, rising as much as 6.3% to the highest since June 2022.

The dollar is sliding amid Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China, which threaten to unleash a trade war, as Canada and China said they would retaliate.

The dollar has fallen by 0.72% against a basket of other major currencies: the trade-weighted dollar index is now at 104.97.

The euro has extended its gains against the dollar and is now up by 0.75% to $1.0704 while the pound is trading nearly 0.4% higher at $1.2842.

Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING, said:

The euro has surged after European leaders announced big spending plans for defence and infrastructure. This comes at a time when president Trump acknowledges that tariffs are causing a ‘little disturbance’ to the US economy. Whether EUR/USD needs to trade substantially higher (e.g., to 1.08) will largely depend on whether US activity dips further.

The DXY trade-weighted dollar index broke decisively under 106 yesterday as European currencies rallied on the prospects of major fiscal stimulus. Critics say that European leaders only react in a crisis – and certainly the prospect of the US withdrawing its security umbrella from Europe is a crisis.

Expect more focus on the above at a European council meeting tomorrow. The prospects of significant European fiscal stimulus come at a time when new US tariffs were dragging many global equity markets some 2-3% lower, sending two-year Treasury yields under 4.00% and undermining the dollar.

In his State of the Union address overnight, US President Donald Trump warned that tariffs were going to cause a ‘little distrurbance’. And it’s that disturbance which has weighed on US activity and the dollar so far this year.

Updated

China sets GDP target of 5% for 2025 amid tariff war with Trump

China has set its GDP target for 2025 at “around 5%”, a figure which was unveiled by Premier Li Qiang at the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in Beijing on Wednesday.

Li announced the growth target in the annual government work report, which also outlined plans to stabilise economic growth by boosting domestic demand and creating 12m new urban jobs.

Economists believe that the 5% growth target, which is in line with 2024’s figure, will be challenging. China reached its target last year with a last-minute export boom. Exports surged by 10.7% in December, pushing China’s trade surplus to a record $1tn. But with a new US-China trade war as Donald Trump settles into his second term in the White House, this year it will be harder to boost the economy through trade.

This week, Trump doubled tariffs on most Chinese goods to 20%, with some duties reaching 45%. China swiftly announced retaliatory tariffs of its own, imposing duties of up to 15% on agricultural goods.

“The target is very ambitious,” said Alicia García-Herrero, the chief economist for Asia Pacific at investment bank Natixis. She said it was “non-reachable” without a bigger stimulus, especially in light of the increased tariffs.

China’s challenge for 2025 will be shielding its economy from the impact of the trade war. Economists have urged policymakers to boost stimulus measures, especially those that would put more money in consumers’ pockets to boost domestic demand.

European markets rally, led by Dax; bond yields jump; euro and sterling rise

European markets are rallying, with defence stocks soaring, after Germany’s prospective partners in government, the CDU/CSU and SPD, agreed on a major loosening of Germany’s fiscal straitjacket – described as “a really big bazooka” by economists.

European defence names have jumped on the prospect of higher defence spending in Germany and elsewhere, continuing the rally seen in recent days.

An index of European aerospace and defence firms advanced by 3.3%. Shares in German companies Thyssenkrupp, Hensoldt, Rheinmetall and Renk have risen by between 5% and 12%. The UK’s BAE Systems, Europe’s biggest defence group, rose by 3.3%.

The Dax in Frankfurt leapt by nearly 3%, and is set for its biggest daily increase since November 2022.

The German mid-cap index is also powering ahead, rising by 4.2%, and on course for its biggest daily gain in three years.

The euro is also rising, up 0.6% to $1.0687 against the dollar, while the pound has gained by 0.4% to $1.2850. The dollar has been sliding amid fears of a “Trumpcession” in the wake of Donald Trump’s trade policies, and some even question the greenback’s status as a safe-haven asset.

Eurozone bond yields have jumped, as German borrowing costs increased sharply.

The yield (or interest rate) on the 30-year German government bond rose the most since the late 1990s, after the agreement by leading parties to loosen the country’s debt brake to allow higher spending on defence and infrastructure.

The 30-year yield surged as much as 25 basis points to 3.07%, the biggest daily rise since October 1998, and is now at 2.98%.

Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg, said:

These proposals for an immediate loosening of Germany’s fiscal rules will likely be enacted. They are a fiscal sea change for Germany.

At home, the infrastructure fund signals that the new government will seriously tackle key domestic deficiencies. I look forward to the day in the – probably still somewhat distant – future when German trains may run as fast and punctual as those in France, Switzerland or Austria.

Let us hope that, after agreeing on such a major fiscal reform, the government-in-waiting also finds the courage to enact the pro-growth supply-side reforms which Germany needs to become a better place for private investment again.

Updated

And we’re off. European shares are rallying, as expected, after the German debt brake deal was announced.

The Dax in Frankfurt jumped by 2.2% while France’s CAC and Spain’s Ibex rose by 1.4% and the UK’s FTSE 100 advanced by 0.57%, or 50 points, to 8,808.

Introduction: Dollar hits four-month low as Trump warns tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’, European shares to rally after German debt brake deal

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

The dollar has fallen further, hitting the lowest level since November, after Donald Trump said his new tariffs will cause “a little disturbance” in a combative speech to Congress, as he vowed to push ahead with his hugely divisive domestic agenda.

In the first major policy speech since he took office in late January, the president doubled down on his decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, the US’s two biggest trading partners, and an additional 10% levy on China. Trump said:

Tariffs are about making America rich again, and making America great again.

It’s happening, and it will happen rather quickly.

China and Canada said they would hit back with retaliatory tariffs.

However, Trump’s trade polices have sparked “Trumpcession fears” – concerns that they could push the American economy into a contraction or even recession – and there is talk that the dollar could lose its safe-haven status.

A closely watched gauge of the US economy weakened a couple of days ago. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model now estimates US GDP will shrink at an annualised rate of 2.8% in January-March.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell to 105.35 this morning, the lowest since 11 November.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank said:

We have published today on a concern around the loss of the dollar’s safe-haven status. Our views on this are evolving and will depend on the US policy path in coming months, in particular on the extent to which it continues to pursue disruptive domestic economic outcomes.

Stock futures are pointing to a higher open in Europe, with Germany’s Dax seen rising by 2.3% after a German debt brake deal was announced, while the FTSE 100 index is expected to gain 0.9% when markets open at 8am.

The yield on Germany’s two-year government bond jumped by 7.8 basis points to 2.093% after a deal to loosen the German debt brake. The partners in Germany’s next government have said they will seek to loosen rules on running up debt to allow for higher defence spending.

Economists at Deutsche Bank called it a “a historic ‘whatever it takes’ moment”.

The leaders of CDU/CSU and SPD (which are in talks to form a coalition government after a national election just over a week ago) agreed on an even more significant fiscal expansion than expected.

The plan is to make three big changes to the debt brake (which limits new borrowing to 0.35% of GDP) in the very near term, and to convene the outgoing parliament in which the centrist parties still hold a constitutional majority to push this through:

  • A €500bn special purpose vehicle for infrastructure investment, of which €100bn will be allocated to the federal states, called Länder.

  • A reform of the debt brake to exempt any defence spending over and above 1% of GDP, effectively permitting open-ended borrowing for defence.

  • A reform of the debt brake at the Länder level to raise their net borrowing cap from 0% to 0.35% of GDP, as at the federal level.

The Agenda

  • 9am GMT: Eurozone HCOB Services and composite PMIs for February (final)

  • 9am GMT: UK new car sales for February

  • 9.30am GMT: S&P Global Services and composite PMIs for February (final)

  • 2.30pm GMT: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and other policymakers are quizzed by Treasury committee about interest rates

  • 3pm GMT: US ISM Services PMI

Updated

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