With the presumably crypto-friendly Trump administration taking office in January 2025, speculation has begun about whether Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) exchange-traded fund (ETF) could become a reality next year.
What Happened: "I think everything is on the table moving forward under the new administration," said Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, in an interview with The Block.
President-elect Donald Trump, who has positioned himself as a pro-crypto leader, has promised to make the United States the “bitcoin capital of the world.”
In a move reflecting his approach, Trump created the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which will be led by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, a vocal Dogecoin supporter.
The approval process for new crypto ETFs could become more streamlined under the incoming administration, particularly as regulatory clarity improves.
“The hope is that the new administration moves quickly to designate which crypto assets are securities and which aren't,” Geraci added. “Once that framework is in place, the approval path for additional spot crypto ETFs should become much clearer.”
Efforts to expand crypto ETFs are already underway, with Cboe BZX filing applications for four spot Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) ETFs last week. Experts predict a Solana ETF could hit the market by mid-2025.
However, Wall Street appears more skeptical about Dogecoin's chances.
"I’m quite confident we’ll see a Solana ETF trading in the first half of 2025,” said Louis Sykes, a crypto analyst at All-Star Charts. “DOGE [is] far less likely… let's just say Wall Street prefers assets that weren't born as a meme.”
Also Read: This Crypto ‘Killer App’ Could Grow 1,000% Under A Trump Administration: Report
Why It Matters: Despite its origins as a joke, Dogecoin has grown into the sixth-largest cryptocurrency, trading at around $0.40 and boasting a $59 billion market cap.
Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas sees the possibility of a DOGE ETF filing, albeit with skepticism. "Today's satire is tomorrow's ETF," Balchunas told The Block.
"You could ask yourself, ‘is DOGE a bridge too far?' and I would say we'll see. I think someone's gonna try it because why not?"
Entrepreneurial financial firms appear eager to capitalize on the momentum created by Bitcoin ETFs.
"With the outstanding success of the BTC ETFs, entrepreneurial financial firms will seek to create whatever products might be a success," said Two Prime Digital Assets CEO Alexander Blume. "Now, will they be approved is a different matter."
Blume pointed out a significant hurdle for Dogecoin: its highly concentrated holdings.
"Dogecoin may struggle to prove it's a fair market," he noted, while expressing optimism that the incoming SEC leadership could take a more permissive stance.
The crypto landscape may see a shift with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler stepping down in January 2025.
Known for his strict stance on crypto, Gensler's departure could open the door to more industry-friendly regulations.
Chris Giancarlo, former chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, is reportedly a contender for the newly proposed position of “Crypto Czar” under President-elect Trump.
"Gensler's unwillingness to engage with crypto has actually kept it at a less mature phase of its development," Giancarlo told The Block. "Ending the suppression is going to bring it to a more mature and more useful period of development."
Another contender, currently the favorite on prediction market Kalshi, is former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins.
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