SAN JOSE, Calif. — Backers of California’s beleaguered High Speed Rail project haven’t had much to cheer about with costs soaring and service scaled back, but a poll out Thursday shows a solid majority of voters still want to press ahead and finish the job.
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll found that 56% of registered voters want the state to continue building the HSR project, though support divides sharply along partisan lines, with 73% of Democrats, 25% of Republicans and 54% of those with no party preference in favor.
“We tried to present the issue as it is now,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, which noted the rising costs, timeline and pared back service in its question to voters. “In that setting, voters say let’s continue on with it.”
In 2008, nearly 53% of California voters approved $9.95 billion in bonds to begin designing and building a high-speed rail system that promised to whisk riders between San Francisco and Los Angeles in just two hours and 40 minutes by 2030. At the time, the system was projected to cost $46 billion.
Costs for the entire project since have ballooned to as much as $105 billion, according to the California High Speed Rail Authority’s latest business plan, which calls for trains operating only from Bakersfield to Merced by 2030. Trains wouldn’t reach the Bay Area until at least 2033, however, the rail authority lacks funding to advance the project outside of the Central Valley.
The Bay Area segment would see trains cruising through a Pacheco Pass tunnel to Gilroy and San Jose where they’d share tracks with Caltrain, slowing their top speed from 220 mph to 110 mph.
The poll comes as support for the project in the state capital has wavered and critics have called for giving voters another chance to weigh in. Gov. Gavin Newsom in his 2019 state of the state speech suggested paring back the project because “there simply isn’t a path to get from Sacramento to San Diego, let alone from San Francisco to L.A.”
And although Newsom has since called for keeping the project moving and finishing the rail line through the Central Valley, influential lawmakers like Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, a Democrat, have pushed back, telling the Los Angeles Times in 2019 that “any project that doesn’t have a significant amount of service to the largest areas in the state doesn’t make much sense.”
Rendon’s office did not respond to questions about the poll Thursday. But Elizabeth Alexis, a co-founder of the group Californians Advocating Responsible Rail Design, said Thursday that the poll reflects voters’ support for public transit, not necessarily a project she says is destined to fall short of expectations.
“Who doesn’t want it, right?” Alexis said. “But people shouldn’t take that as a license to move forward with the current plan, but as inspiration to rethink how we’re doing this so that one day it can actually deliver what Californians want.”
California High Speed Rail Authority Chief Executive Brian Kelly said that although other surveys over the years have found similar support, he found the latest poll “encouraging because we’ve had to reframe” the project over the years.
“I’ve tried to be very forthright with the public about what our challenges are,” Kelly said. “People know there will be challenges.”
The poll noted a host of concerns are weighing on state voters. Housing affordability was the top concern for 31%, followed by homelessness for 29%, crime and public safety for 23% and gas prices for 21% of the respondents. According to the American Automobile Association, gas averaged $5.719 a gallon in California on Thursday, nearly $2 higher than the $4.074 national average.
The poll found recent gas price increases are a very or somewhat serious problem for 69% of voters, more so for those with modest incomes, with 52% of those earning less than $40,000 a year calling it a very serious problem for them and their families.
But the poll also found those high gas prices weren’t pushing voters to take public transit, rather they would just drive less. Overall, 43% said they were very likely to drive less around town and cut back on weekend and vacation car trips because of gas prices. That rose to 66% among voters who said gas price are very serious problem.
Yet only 11% said high gas prices would spur them to ride public transit more. Asked why, the poll found that 45% said public transit isn’t convenient where they work or need to go, 39% said it takes longer to get where they need to go, 35% said it’s not convenient where they live and 34% said they don’t feel safe on buses and trains.
“It’s not an easy transition to get out of your car for most people,” DiCamillo said. “But driving less, that’s under your control.”
The findings suggest potential political risk for California’s ruling Democrats heading into fall elections, said IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler.
“The substantial number of voters who see rising gas prices as a serious problem suggests that Democrats, both in Sacramento and nationally, need to develop responses that these voters can understand and find credible,” Schickler said.
But DiCamillo said that although there are “a lot of issues voters want the state to attend to,” Newsom, who’s up for re-election, handily defeated a recall vote last fall and faces no serious challenge from within his party.
“He’s kind of in a good position,” DiCamillo said, “even though the state has a lot of problems.”
