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Chicago, Illinois-based United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) owns and manages airlines that transports people and cargos serving customers worldwide. With a market cap of $34.8 billion, the company also offers catering, ground handling, flight academy, and maintenance services for third parties.
Shares of this leading airline holding company have outperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. UAL has gained 153.4% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 20.9%. In 2025, UAL stock is up 8%, surpassing the SPX’s 1.9% rise on a YTD basis.
Zooming in further, UAL’s outperformance looks less pronounced compared to the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 34% over the past year. Moreover, UAL’s gains on a YTD basis outshine the ETF’s 1.2% returns over the same time frame.
UAL’s strong performance is driven by rising passenger volumes, robust corporate travel demand, and low fuel costs. The airline's investments in its loyalty program and premium services are paying off, with loyalty revenues increasing. UAL expects continued strong demand for travel in 2025, especially for international flights, positioning the airline for further growth. Moreover, the re-election of Donald Trump is seen positive for the airline industry.
On Jan. 21, UAL shares closed up more than 2% after reporting its Q4 results. Its adjusted EPS of $3.26 surpassed Wall Street expectations of $3.01. The company’s revenue was $14.7 billion, beating Wall Street forecasts of $14.4 billion.
For fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect UAL’s EPS to grow 23.4% to $13.09 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 21 analysts covering UAL stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 20 “Strong Buy” ratings, and one “Moderate Buy.”
This configuration is more bullish than three months ago, with 16 analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Jan. 26, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu maintained a “Buy” rating on UAL with a $154 price target, implying a potential upside of 46.9% from current levels.
The mean price target of $134.07 represents a 27.9% premium to UAL’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $165 suggests an upside potential of 57.4%.
