Valued at a market cap of $21.9 billion, Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) is one of the largest steel producers and metal recyclers in the United States. The Fort Wayne, Indiana-based company operates through three primary segments: steel production, metal recycling, and steel fabrication. It specializes in producing flat-rolled, structural, and engineered steel products, serving industries such as automotive, construction, and manufacturing.
Steel Dynamics may have trailed the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 22.5% returns over the past year with a 12.8% climb, but 2025 has been a different story. The stock has skyrocketed 21.9% year-to-date, crushing the S&P 500’s 4.2% rise.
Even within the steel sector, STLD stands out. While the VanEck Steel ETF (SLX) tumbled 8.9% over the past year, STLD held strong, and its 2025 rally is nearly double SLX’s 10.6% gain.
On Feb. 10, Steel Dynamics shares rallied more than 5% after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, strengthening U.S. producers by limiting foreign competition. The tariff, imposed without exemptions, targets indirect Chinese steel inflows and aims to close loopholes that previously allowed foreign steel to bypass restrictions.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts estimate Steel Dynamics’ profit to dip 8.4% year over year to $9.01 per share. Nevertheless, the company's earnings surprise history is impressive, beating the consensus estimates in all of the past four quarters.
Wall Street is leaning cautiously bullish on STLD, with an overall “Moderate Buy” consensus. Among the 12 analysts covering the stock, six are all-in with a “Strong Buy,” five are playing it safe with a “Hold,” and one lone bear is calling for a “Strong Sell.”
The overall configuration is slightly more bullish than a month back when the stock had four “Strong Buys.”
On Feb. 11, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Steel Dynamics to "Overweight" with a $155 price target, citing improving operations at its Sinton facility and stronger steel pricing. Sinton, which lost nearly $200 million in 2024, is showing signs of recovery with better yields, lower costs, and higher production.
KeyBanc expects STLD to benefit from declining steel imports and potential tariffs supporting domestic prices. The firm raised its 2025 EBITDA forecast to $2.57 billion and 2026 to $3.04 billion, driven by stronger steel profitability and ramping aluminum operations.
STLD’s mean price target of $140.30 represents a marginal premium to the current market prices. The Street-high target price of $165 implies the stock could rally as much as 18.7%.
