With a market cap of $16.8 billion, Merrillville, Indiana-based NiSource Inc. (NI) provides regulated natural gas and electric services in the U.S. It serves millions through its extensive gas distribution network and electric generation facilities, primarily across the Midwest and Northeast.
Shares of the energy holding company have outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. NI has risen 43.8% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 35.5%. In 2024, shares of NI are up 35.4%, compared to SPX’s 25.5% gain on a YTD basis.
Focusing more closely, NiSource has also outpaced the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLU) 30.1% return over the past 52 weeks and a 23.9% YTD return.
Despite reporting lower-than-expected Q3 revenue of $1.1 billion, shares of NI rose 2.1% on Oct. 30 as the company posted an adjusted EPS of $0.20, surpassing expectations. Investors were encouraged by NiSource's reaffirmed 2024 EPS guidance of $1.70–$1.74, aligned with analyst estimates. The company’s positive outlook, including a 6%-8% CAGR through 2029 and an increased capital expenditure plan of $19.3 billion for 2025–2029, further boosted investor confidence. Additionally, growth in gas distribution and electric sales highlighted the company's resilience in core operations.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect NI’s EPS to grow 8.1% year-over-year to $1.73. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It topped the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.
Among the 14 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Strong Buy.”
This configuration is more bullish than three months ago, with 11 “Strong Buy” ratings on the stock.
On Oct. 29, Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith initiated coverage on NiSource with a “Buy" rating and a $39 price target, noting strong re-rating potential driven by over $10 billion in capex opportunities from data center and renewable expansions, supported by favorable regulatory environments in key states.
The mean price target of $38.04 represents a premium of only 5.8% to NI's current levels. The Street-high price target of $40, implies a potential upside of 11.3% from the current price levels.
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