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Valued at $13.1 billion by market cap, Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) operates as a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. It focuses on discovering and developing messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and vaccines for the treatment of autoimmune conditions, infectious, immuno-oncology, rare, and cardiovascular diseases.
Moderna has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. MRNA stock has tanked 63.4% over the past 52 weeks and 15.9% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 22.6% surge over the past year and 3.1% gains in 2025.
Narrowing the focus, MRNA has also lagged behind the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF’s (XBI) 7.1% gains over the past year and 5.2% returns on a YTD basis.
Moderna's stock soared to an all-time high of $497.49 back in August 2021, driven by increased demand for its COVID-19 vaccines. However, since then, the stock has continued to erode investors’ wealth.
On Nov. 7, Moderna's stock price dropped nearly 3% after the release of its mixed Q3 results. The company reported a modest 3.6% year-over-year increase in total revenues to $1.9 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectations. Additionally, Moderna delivered a net income of $13 million, compared to the $3.6 billion net loss reported in the year-ago quarter and its EPS of $0.03 exceeded analysts’ estimates by a large margin. Despite these improvements, investors remain concerned about the slowdown in vaccine demand, which is impacting Moderna's topline growth prospects.
Moderna is set to announce its fiscal 2024 results in the upcoming week, analysts expect its losses to decrease 25.6% year-over-year to $9.18 per share. On a more positive note, MRNA has a solid earnings surprise history. It has surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates in each of the past four quarters.
Among the 25 analysts covering the MRNA stock, the consensus rating is a “Hold.” That’s based on four “Strong Buy,” 17 “Hold,” one “Moderate Sell,” and three “Strong Sell” ratings.
This configuration is slightly bearish compared to three months ago when six analysts recommended “Strong Buy” and only two analysts gave “Strong Sell” ratings.
On Jan. 27, Evercore ISI Group analyst Cory Kasimov maintained an “In-Line” rating on MRNA, while lowering the price target to $50, representing a 42.9% premium to current price levels.
Meanwhile, Mordena’s mean price target of $70.32 suggests a staggering 101% upside potential from current price levels.
