Fantasy baseball season is in the air.
With the World Baseball Classic kicking off even more eyes are on the sport than usual this time of year. And if you’re getting ready to start your annual fantasy draft up soon, it can be tempting to reach for names that make you feel comfortable.
But beware! Not all players are worth that level of complacency, whether it’s an early round or late pick.
Let’s take a look at nine players you should absolutely avoid in your drafts this year with some insight from FanGraphs ZiPS projections — which uses growth and decline curves based on player type to establish trends. This isn’t to say these guys couldn’t be valuable adds down the road, but that’s what the waiver wires are for. Treat your draft with more caution.
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Joey Gallo, OF, Minnesota Twins
Less than a month ago Gallo was on our list of 5 players to monitor as spring training opens.
Yeah, we’ve seen enough to promptly put him back on the DO NOT DRAFT list. Namely, the fact that even with MLB banning the shift, teams have discovered how to shift against him anyways.
ZiPs projects Gallo to slash around .194/.330/.426 with 25 home runs. That feels like a best-case scenario after he hit 19 homers last year. Pass on him.
Nelson Cruz, DH, San Diego Padres
Cruz signed a one-year, $1 million deal to join an already stacked Padres lineup where he’ll likely split DH duties with Matt Carpenter. After hitting 32 homers in 2021, Cruz fell off hard last season with 10 home runs while slugging .337 with an admittedly awful Nationals club.
ZiPs projects a small bounce-back (19 home runs, .415 slugging percentage) but he’ll turn 43 in July and is understandably chasing a ring any way he can get it. Not exactly worth spending a draft pick on.
Yusei Kikuchi, P, Toronto Blue Jays
The tremendous hype over his arrival in 2019 aside, Kikuchi has been a below average starter in the Majors, though he did find a little bit of success in the bullpen towards the end of last season.
Toronto signed him to a three-year, $36 million deal and believes it can put his stuff to good use. Fantasy players do not need to feel the same, but if he winds up back in the bullpen, it could be worth a waiver wire add.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Once upon a time MadBum was a lock to go in the first or second round. Life, fast, etc. Though he’s just 33 years old, Bumgarner has put a ton of milage on his arm.
ZiPs has him projected for an ERA hovering around 4.93 with a 0.1 wins above replacement. You can do better.
Alex Colome, P, Washington Nationals
Four quick reasons to avoid this former stud closer:
- He’s picked up more than 20 saves in a season just once since 2017
- The NL East contains arguably the most terrifying collection of hitters in Major League Baseball
- The Nationals won’t consistently find themselves in a ton of save situations
- There’s still a chance Colome gets cut before Opening Day
Brad Keller, SP, Kansas City Royals
It’s never a good sign when the GM who brought you in is kicked to the curb after another awful season. It’s an even worse sign when you’ve already been moved to the bullpen in the midst of said awful season.
Keller’s ZiPS projections leave a lot to be desired. He’s looking at a 4.65 ERA, which would actually be an improvement on back-to-back years above the 5.0 mark.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
The Tigers were the second AL Central team to fire their GM after a failed rebuilding attempt. Torkelson was supposed to anchor the lineup for the future. His first go around in the Majors, however, proves the only way for him to go is up.
Unfortunately, that’s not saying much for fantasy managers interested in him.
Torkelson slashed .203/.285/.319 with eight home runs in 2022. ZiPS has him slashing .235/.324/.423 with 21 dingers this season. That seems like a stretch for a prospect who has so far failed to live up to expectations.
Avisaíl García, OF, Miami Marlins
Garcia is a power hitter who struggled to hit home runs last year. To be more specific, he hit eight home runs. Even a bounce back year doesn’t make him worth a draft pick at the moment. ZiPS has him slashing .243/.301/.380 in 2023.
Carlos Santana, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Santana performed significantly better when after he landed in Seattle for the latter portion of the 2022 season, but there was really nowhere to go but up after how the year started in Kansas City on a rebuilding club. Now with Pittsburgh, the 31-year-old finds himself back in a similar position as he was with the Royals. ZiPs projects a .232/.353/.385 slash line with 16 home runs — his fewest in a full 162-game season since 2015.
