The relentless focus of BJP leaders on the Jat and Gurjar vote bank suggests that the agrarian communities are shifting from the party that they overwhelmingly supported in 2017.
The swing away is providing fodder to the campaign of Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance that is relying on the same communities to turn the tide in its favour in western U.P. that will go to polls in the first two phases.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who till a few days back was wooing the RLD’s Jayant Singh to the BJP, predicted dire consequences for the SP-RLD alliance, in a bid to drive a wedge between the partners.
Speaking at an election meeting in Anoopshahr, Mr. Shah raised the communal pitch, saying: “Within days, Mr. Singh will be replaced by Azam Khan (SP leader who is at present languishing in jail). The one who doesn’t listen to his father and uncle won’t listen to you, Jayant babu.” A spate of social media messages are being circulated pointing out that on the Samajwadi Party campaign bus there is no photo of Chaudhary Charan Singh and no space for the RLD’s symbol.
The BJP’s concerns are not misplaced. In at least five of seven constituencies of Bulandshahr district, Jat and Muslim unity could hurt the interests of the party. However, the focus on Mr. Jayant Singh, has given Jats the confidence that their leader has arrived on the political scene. Mr Singh also tweeted that he must be doing something right to receive such attention from BJP leaders.
“It is better to become the moustache of Jats rather than being the tail of the BJP,” Om Pal Singh, a Jat farmer in Bulandshahr, pithily puts it.
Growing clout
Jat BJP leaders, who felt ignored during the last five years of the Yogi Adityanath regime, have suddenly found a voice. “Many of those who represented the community in Delhi during the meeting with Mr. Shah could not even win a Panchayat election. Also, we have seen the treatment meted out to former minister Birender Singh who hosted a similar meeting for Mr Shah before the 2017 polls,” said another disgruntled BJP leader from Modinagar. The BJP’s Jat face from Haryana was unceremoniously dumped from the national executive of the party in December after he extended support to farm laws.
“The BJP takes credit for making Satyapal Malik governor but he has already been shifted three times despite doing a good job in Jammu & Kashmir. Even IAS and IPS officers have more job stability,” he added.
In the Loni rally in Ghaziabad, Mr Shah invoked Gurjar icons Rampyari Gurjari and Mihir Bhoj and claimed it was a Gurjar who made invader Timur pack his bags. The incumbent BJP MLA Nand Kishore Gurjar is facing a tough contest from another Gurjar heavyweight Madan Bhaiyya from RLD and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Haji Aqil in a constituency dominated by Muslims, Gurjars and Jats. Further Ranjita Dhama, the Jat hopeful from the BJP, has filed her nomination as an independent.
Mr. Gurjar had repeatedly embarrassed the Yogi government and local BJP leadership was surprised when his ticket was retained. In fact, observers could make out the source of the BJP candidate’s ticket by looking at the leader who turns up to address the rally in the constituency.
A BJP ticket aspirant in Hapur said there was little difference between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the BJP in terms of ticket distribution. “Both have stopped giving priority to the local candidate. While the BSP wants to fight the election in the name of Mayawati, the BJP wants Modi, Shah, and Yogi to win the seats for them.”
He said this attitude was hurting the BJP because a large number of candidates who won just because of the Modi wave in 2017 are facing anti-incumbency. “Perhaps, that is why top leaders are going door-to-door and chewing sugarcane with farmers while the candidates are facing the anguish of farmers,” he said. In all three seats of the district, he said, the BJP was hoping the BSP candidate would save the day for the party.
Assiduously wooed
In a surprise move, the SP-RLD alliance has given tickets to 12 Gurjar candidates, the most among the leading parties. The community is said to vote for the candidates of its caste, irrespective of party affiliation. In the prestigious Jewar seat, RLD’s Gujrar candidate Avtar Singh Bhadana is locked in a tough fight with the BJP’s Dhirendra Singh. Gurjars have been protesting against the BJP over the Mihir Bhoj statue controversy in neighbouring Dadri.
Observers said there were no surprises left in the BJP’s arsenal. The party is concerned about the eroding Jat and Gurjar vote bank and is not being able to find a suitable replacement for those crucial votes. “It could be Dalits who have benefited from the free ration and the PM Housing scheme,” suggests Ramesh Chand, tea stall owner and a committed BJP supporter in Bulandshahr.
A staunch BJP supporter, Sandeep Kansal, the manager at Sneha Farms in Bulandshahr where the SP-RLD hosted their press conference, said Mr Shah also hosted his meeting in the banquet hall.
“We know that the SP-RLD workers are a little rustic but can’t take a chance by refusing them. The contest is tough in two to three seats in the district.”
On the divisive communal tone of BJP leaders, he said, “Perhaps, this is what the masses want during elections. Otherwise, the BJP has done a lot for the poor.” He lists out that “the government has provided free ration to the lower-income group. Otherwise, they would have looked up to us. It is the corrupt middlemen who are miffed with the BJP because of the direct benefit transfer.”
In Sikandrabad, the youth were agitated that the BJP was busy with the Hindu-Muslim rhetoric when the real issue was unemployment. “There has been no bharti (recruitment) in armed forces in the last two years. Elections and rallies are on time but youth can’t converge for employment. Many of us have become overage,” said Sandeep Yadav, a job aspirant.
On Friday, Muzaffarnagar MP Sanjeev Balyan has written to Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, who also faced anger during his visit to the region, to extend the age of entry into armed forces from 21 to 23 to help the boys who lost the opportunity because of the pandemic.
However, in Shikarpur, supporters of the BJP candidate were confident. “There is some shift but we are hoping Yogiji will set the narrative right just before the polling date,” said Ramraj Singh, a fertiliser shop owner. "He has provided us a secure atmosphere to run our business," he said.
Perhaps, the process has begun as observers are seeing electoral gains and losses even in the attack on AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi in Hapur. They feel it has brought Mr Owaisi, who has been out of media’s mindspace since the nomination has been filed, back into focus. “The incident would arouse the emotional youth from both sides, adding to the number of votes polled for the AIMIM and the BJP. It could hurt the cause of SP-RLD in seats where the margin of victory and defeat is going be thin,” said a Muslim leader from Dasna, where the firing incident happened. “Thankfully, Narsinghanand Saraswati, the priest of Dasna temple, is in jail...,” he added.
