Jason Kidd isn’t sure if the start of Luka Doncic’s fifth NBA season represents a significant point in his young superstar’s career.
Why would Year 5 be any different than the first four, when Doncic transformed from an intriguing Slovenian and EuroLeague prodigy into one of the NBA’s most dominant and marketable forces?
Who expects Doncic’s top-five averages in scoring and assists and top-20 marks in rebounding to dip beyond his usual elite triple-double expectations?
Aside from better conditioning to start this season, Doncic’s goals for Year 5 with the Mavericks, which starts Wednesday night against the Suns in Phoenix, remain the same:
Win.
Win often.
And then keep winning in the playoffs.
But as the Mavericks’ head coach thought more about Doncic’s upcoming Year 5, he considered a few changes:
“I think he will understand the league better,” Kidd said.
“Maybe I can ask him as we go here how he sees things differently in Year 5,” Kidd continued. “It could be where things are a little clearer — HD, it’s brighter — where he can see things a lot better of what teams are trying to do.”
The great ones do.
So, even if Year 5 marks only a continuation of Doncic’s skyrocketing career trajectory, half-a-decade of NBA experience offers a natural benchmark for those on the outside to reflect on Doncic’s impact and success.
Spoiler: He’s in Hall of Fame company.
Here’s how five of the league’s all-time greats — Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd and Giannis Antetokounmpo — fared through their first five NBA seasons, and how Doncic’s statistics and achievements compare so far.
Age in Year 5
Player, Age, Fifth season
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 23, 2017-18
LeBron James, 23, 2007-08
Michael Jordan, 25, 1988-89
Jason Kidd, 25, 1998-99
Dirk Nowitzki, 24, 2002-03
Doncic will be 23 years old for the majority of this 2022-23 season. He will turn 24 on February 27, 2023 — coincidentally the night the Mavericks host the Indiana Pacers and former coach Rick Carlisle.
Stat averages in Year 5
Player, Points, Rebounds, Assists, FG %, 3FG %, FT %
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 26.9, 10.0, 4.8, 52.9, 30.7, 76.0
LeBron James, 30.0, 7.9, 7.2, 48.4, 31.5, 71.2
Michael Jordan, 32.5, 8.0, 8.0, 53.8, 27.6, 85.0
Jason Kidd, 16.9, 6.8, 10.8, 44.4, 36.6, 75.7
Dirk Nowitzki, 25.1, 9.9, 3.0, 46.3, 37.9, 88.1
Doncic finished his fourth season in the middle of this six-pack. He averaged 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists while shooting 45.7% from the floor, 35.3% from three and 74.4% from the line.
Noted statistical database Basketball Reference’s 2022-23 season average projections for Doncic — 29.2 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.9 assists per game — would rank third in scoring behind Jordan and James, third in rebounding behind Antetokounmpo and Nowitzki and second in assists behind Kidd.
What an ideal mix.
Team results in Year 5
Player, Team results
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 44-38 (7th in the East; Bucks lost in the first round)
LeBron James, 45-37 (4th in the East; Cavaliers lost in the second round)
Michael Jordan, 47-35 (6th in the East; Bulls lost in the conference finals)
Jason Kidd, 27-23 (7th in the West; Suns lost in the first round)
Dirk Nowitzki, 60-22 (3rd in the West; Mavericks lost in the conference finals)
In leading the 52-30 Mavericks to the conference finals to cap his Year 4, Doncic beat all but James — who lost the NBA Finals in his fourth season — to the final-four round.
Kidd, meanwhile, has a heavy presence in this section. His lockout-condensed fifth season might not provide the best barometer for record comparison, but he coached Antetokounmpo during the first 45 games of the Bucks star’s fifth NBA season. Don’t expect him to endure the same mid-season firing in Doncic’s Year 5.
Playoffs in first five seasons
Player, Playoffs
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 3 postseasons, 19 games
LeBron James, 3 postseasons, 46 games
Michael Jordan, 5 postseasons, 37 games
Jason Kidd, 3 postseasons, 12 games
Dirk Nowitzki, 3 postseasons, 35 games
Doncic can’t match Jordan’s five playoff berths in his first five seasons, but the Mavericks are expected to make it a fourth straight season in Doncic’s Year 5. So far, Doncic has played 28 games through three playoff runs despite starting last season’s run on the bench with a left calf strain.
Deepest playoff run in first five seasons
Player, Deepest playoff run
Giannis Antetokounmpo, First round (three times)
LeBron James, NBA Finals (2007)
Michael Jordan, Eastern Conference finals (1989)
Jason Kidd, First round (three times)
Dirk Nowitzki, Western Conference finals (2003)
Playoff results through Year 5 may not be indicative of future trajectory.
Nowitzki, for example, didn’t make another West finals for three years (2006) and again after that until the Mavericks’ 2011 title run, while Jordan’s first conference finals loss propelled a six-championships run in which the Bulls made at least the East finals in seven consecutive full seasons with Jordan.
Most expect Year 5 Doncic and the Mavericks to fall back in a deeper Western Conference — but few predicted their three-round run in Doncic’s fourth season.
Salary in Year 5
Player, Salary
Giannis Antetokounmpo, $22.47 million
LeBron James, $13.04 million
Michael Jordan, $2 million
Jason Kidd, $3.68 million
Dirk Nowitzki, $10.07 million
Doncic is set to make $37.1 million this season, the first of his five-year rookie supermax extension. His Mavericks head coach and Jordan Brand honcho might be particularly envious.
Triple-doubles in first five seasons
Player, Triple-doubles
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 9
LeBron James, 17
Michael Jordan, 20
Jason Kidd, 26
Dirk Nowitzki, 0
Doncic’s triple-double totals by his four seasons: 8, 17, 11, 10 — plus 3 during the 2020 playoffs.
His 46 regular-season triple-doubles rank 10th on the NBA’s all-time list — already past Nowitzki (2), Jordan (28) and Antetokounmpo (29) and on pace to surpass Kidd’s 107 (fourth all-time) and James’ eventual final tally (currently 105).
All-Star appearances in first five seasons
Player, All-Star appearances
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2
LeBron James, 4
Michael Jordan, 5
Jason Kidd, 2
Dirk Nowitzki, 2
Doncic finished top-2 in fan voting for West guards during his rookie season, but player, coach and media votes didn’t deliver him an All-Star berth. After starting the showcase in 2020 and 2021 and coming off the bench last year after an out-of-shape start, he’s eager for a fitter, more cohesive run in Year 5 — and a fourth consecutive All-Star nod should follow.
All-NBA in first five seasons
Player, All-NBA selections
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2 second-team
LeBron James, first-team, 2 second-team
Michael Jordan, 3 first-team, 1 second-team
Jason Kidd, None
Dirk Nowitzki, 2 second-team, 1 third-team
Three-time first teamer Doncic is expected to rank among the league’s best guards again this season, likely positioning him to be the only one on the list with four first-team All-NBA honors in his first five years.
Best MVP voting finish in first five seasons
Player, Best MVP voting finish
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 6th (2018)
LeBron James, 2nd (2006)
Michael Jordan, 1st (1988)
Jason Kidd, 5th (1999)
Dirk Nowitzki, 7th (2003)
Doncic has finished top-six in MVP voting each of the last three seasons: fourth in 2020, fifth in 2022 and sixth in 2021. No comparison to Jordan’s Year 4 MVP triumph or James’ runner-up in his third year, but Doncic will enter Year 5 as the betting-odds favorite to win the award this season.
